Another week of NCAA Football in the books and it couldn't have been a better week. Things that I wanted to see happened and in some cases I never would have thought would happen happened.
For weeks I have been talking about teams not being prepared and taking games for granted. Every week it happened and this week was no exception or did it?
For teams like Iowa St, Baylor, and TCU they aren't going to major bowls and really had no shot to go to one. So when they played Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Boise St (last week) it was like their big bowl game and a shot to do major damage to their conference brothers. It was their one shining moment and opportunity to make their season. As you can know they all came through and I'll talk more about this.
The one team I left out of the above conversation was Oregon. USC is on probation and this WAS their bowl game. They went on the road in a hostile environment as a two td underdog and got the job done. Granted they were out of gas in the end but a lot of credit goes their way.
How bad is Boise St kicking themselves right now? They went from a GUARANTEED BCS bowl game to the potential of the Poinsettia Bowl. 18 million dollars + to a bs bowl and about $500,000. However with what took place today, Boise will move up in the polls a few spots and may be back in the picture for a BCS bowl. So the question is at who's expense?
I would venture Houston's. Would the BCS take an undefeated Houston or a 1 loss Boise St. We know Boise travels well and has a bigger national profile than Houston. I spoke about Houston's abysmal schedule this year as well. Time will tell and even a lot more can and will happen in the next few weeks.
I am going to look at the major conferences then go to the national picture before going into my top 10.
Big East - What a mess to be polite. Five teams tied for the conference lead all with 2 losses. Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia and Pittsburgh. I have no idea who has the inside track, tie breakers or whatever but Louisville and Rutgers are 4-2 while the rest are 3-2. Two weeks to go and we should eliminate a few of these 5 next week. I think Rutgers will emerge out of this conference if they win their final game next week.
ACC -- I said last week:
If VA wins at FL St next week then the VA game becomes an elimination game as the winner will make the ACC Title. Anyone rooting for VA to win at FL St next week just because?
In what was one of the craziest finishes I can recall seeing in quite some time. VA pulled out a win at FL St. So yes Virginia you do have a shot to be the ACC Coastal champs if you can pull it out at VA Tech. Just think if that happens, they would face Clemson in the title game. They didn't meet this year but what a gauntlet it would be FL St, VA Tech and Clemson in a trio of upsets. Will the dream continue? Personally I will be rooting for VA.
Speaking of Clemson, anyone who bet on them, watched the game should write to the AD of Clemson asking for a refund. This was a mail in appearance by Clemson and nothing else. Do you really think NC St is 24 better than Clemson? Nahhh don't think so....
Big 10 -- Pretty simple the winner of Penn St/Wisconsin takes on Michigan St. Penn St and Wisconsin play in the semi-final match at Madison. I can't see how Penn St wins at Madison. I wasn't surprised they won at Ohio State, but next week is a different story. Wisconsin should be around a 12-14 point favorite. Anything less is stealing.
Big 12 -- Even with both OK and OK St losing, the championship will go to the winner of this match up. OK will not lose to IA St next week, that just won't happen. KST could make it a three way tie but loses all tie breakers. I make OK St a 1.5 to 3 point favorite over Oklahoma.
PAC 12 -- Even with Oregon's loss, unless they lose at Oregon St they will be in the PAC 12 title game. USC would've won the South Division and set up a rematch with Oregon but they aren't eligible for post season. If UCLA and Arizona St loses, then Utah sneaks in to play Oregon. It really doesn't matter who faces Oregon. Oregon will be favored by 14 or more over ASU/UT and by 21 over UCLA. Blow Out no matter who they play!!
SEC - It's simple, LSU/AR settle the East. LSU wins they play GA. If AR wins, then it's AL vs GA. You guys know I've been rooting for LSU to lose. I want that more than ever. Why you ask? I hate the BCS, every other sport can do a playoff, these guys need to do one. There would be so much chaos, so much hatred, so much controversy, this may be the year to get something done.
All other conferences have no impact in the national title scene. No offense but I don't care about the Jimmy Bob Bowl from some small city in the middle of nowhere.
Let's talk from a national perspective now. The losses last week and this week have things in a total state of chaos with the exception of LSU who remains undefeated. Anyone that is a fan of college football has to love what is going on. This is a great time of the year and I love nothing more than to watch a meaningful game. I don't want to be subjecting to BS type games. As much as I love football, I just won't watch.
Let's get to the underdogs of the week.... any guesses?
Iowa St a 4 TD home underdog comes from 17 back to win in OT.
Baylor a 17 point home dog comes from behind and beats Oklahoma ending an 0-20 record vs Oklahoma.
USC a 15 point underdog wins at Oregon 38-35 I said last week:
They have USC at home next in a tricky spot after Stanford and before the Civil War with Oregon St. USC isn't bowl eligible and they will treat Oregon as their bowl game. Road game and all. Trap game potential....
I have to add Arizona +10 in a 31-27 road win at AZ ST. Arizona isn't going bowling and they made sure their rival won't play in the PAC 12 title game either. Even when UCLA loses and AZ St wins next week, UCLA owns the tie breaker by beating AZ ST earlier this month.
Let's get to the Top 10....
1. LSU..... Took care of business against MS 52-3 setting up the big game against Arkansas on Black Friday. This game should bring in good ratings and is a bigger game than LSU/AL was at this point. I think we see LSU favored by 7-10 over Arkansas and the line would be right.
2. Alabama..... Beat a good GA Southern team who is ranked #2 in I-AA. All they need to do is beat Auburn and I believe they will be in the national title game no matter what else happens. They are in the catbird seat here and I still believe I've had them right at #2 since their loss to LSU.
3. Arkansas..... Up from #5 and can you imagine if they beat LSU, they could be in the title game against Alabama? Holy cow! I have watched this team all year and that's why I have had them higher in my poll than the so called experts. I've been calling this AR/LSU game the deal breaker of the year for weeks. We get it this coming Friday. I can't wait!
4. Stanford..... I move them all the way up from #9. I still like this team a lot and think they benefited the most from the mess that took place today. We get to see them in priiiiime tiiiiime against Notre Dame next.
5. Va Tech..... Beat NC on Thursday 24-21 and has VA at home next to decide the Coastal Division of the ACC. Pretty quiet type season for VA Tech and they have snuck up the rankings without a lot of fan fare.
6. Boise St..... I believe they have benefited greatly and will be in a BCS bowl game. Their loss hurt, but it happened before the major carnage took place. Tough position to be in.
7. Oklahoma St..... Drop from #3 and I likely should've dropped them more. I haven't been much of a fan of this team and still believe they lose at home to Oklahoma in 2 weeks.
8. Michigan St..... A team in the right place at the right time. They have the winner of Wisconsin/Penn St. They don't have an easy game at Northwestern and can't look ahead next Saturday.
9. Oregon.....Drop from #4 as they took on their second loss of the year. Now out of the national title picture, they aim for the Rose Bowl by winning the Pac 12 title. Civil War is up next. I stated back in early October that the month of November would make or break Oregon and the scenario played itself out as predicted.
10. Houston..... A win against SMU and I can't really push this team above the two team losses ahead of them here. Tulsa up next on the road in a battle of undefeated conference teams. The bubble could burst next Saturday.
Oklahoma drops out from #6 along with Clemson at #7.
Outside of the top 3, the rest of the Top 10 was a real crap shoot. With all the teams losing like they did, OK St won't be hurt as much as there isn't a lot of teams to really examine to put ahead of them.
Arkansas right now wields a lot of power as they are the team that can further upset the apple cart and play their way into the National Title game. Outside of LSU everyone else is looking to back their way in.
Until next week, Happy Thanksgiving and be safe. Do something kind for a stranger this coming week.
FREAK