I'm back for the 2011 NFL season. I follow the NFL more closely than any other sport. Last year I keep track of NFL teams that won SU and covered the spread and plan on doing the same this year. The theory is if you can pick the winner of the game, you cover the spread over 80% of the time. Just looking at last years numbers for weeks 1-16 the stats are 198-38-4 ATS ( 83.89% ) for the winning team. The other stat that I followed was favorites of 10 points or more were 8-11 ATS and 15-4 SU. Just by looking at these stats, I plan on looking at every game each week and try and perdidct what team will win the game. I plan on keeping track of the ATS record of the winning teams again this year. Any input from others is welcome. GL all on this up coming NFL season.

Whitesox welcome back. I enjoyed this thread last year and look forward it to again this year. Thanks for doing this, it is quite an eye opener.

Thanks Freak, I will try to do what I can for Football. This is on thing I like to track just because it is such a eye opener and not a lot of people look at betting this way. Pick the winner and cover the spread. Now if we just could pick the winner all the time, thats the hard part. I was thinking, maybe we could start a thread each week and ask the forum to pick who they think will win the games SU and post the findings by Saturday night. I will give this some thought after week 1. The one other trend that I always play is play against the West Coast teams playing on the East Coast at the 11 am start time. I don't have the true numbers on what % it hits, but i do know it is over 60% of the time or higher. GL all on your wargers this weekend.

Well week 1 is almost complete and the results speak for themselves. That's right, if you can just pick the winner of the game, you cover the spread in all but 2 games so far this week. Here are the results so far.

GB -4.5 W & C
Chi + 1 W & C
Hous -9 W & C
Buff + 3.5 W & C
Jac + 1 W & C
Cinch + 6.5 W & C
Philly -3.5 W & C
SD -9 W & D C
Wash + 1 W & C
Air -6.5 W & C
SF -6 W & C
NY Jets -6.5 W & D C

YTD 12 - 2

Take a good look at this, the results show that the spread isn't a big factor as many people may think.



Balt -1 W & C
Det + 1 W & C

Week 1 Results

GB -4.5 W & C
Chi + 1 W & C
Hous -9 W & C
Buff + 3.5 W & C
Jac + 1 W & C
Cinch + 6.5 W & C
Philly -3.5 W & C
Balt -1 W & C
Det + 1 W & C
SD -9 W & D C
Wash + 1 W & C
Air -6.5 W & C
SF -6 W & C
NY Jets -6.5 W & D C
NE Pats -7 W & C
Oak +3 W & C

Week 1 Record 14-2

Week 2 results

Pit -14 W&C
Tenn +5.5 W&C
NYJ -9 W&C
Wash -4.5 W&DC
Buff -3.5 W&DC
TB +1 W&C
NO -4.5 W&C
GB -10 W&DC
Clev -1 W&C
Det -9 W&C
Dallas -3 W&P
Denver -3.5 W&DC
Hous -3 W&C
NE -6.5 W&C
Atl +2.5 W&C
NYG -7 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1

YTD 25-6-1 ATS Double digit favorites 1-1 ATS and 2-0 SU

Week 3 results

Car -3.5 W&C
Ten -7 W&DC
NO -3.5 W&C
Det -3 W&P
NYG +9 W&C
Buff +7 W&C
Clev +1 W&C
SF +1 W&C
Oak +1 W&C
Balt -5.5 W&C
SD -14 W&DC
TB -1 W&C
GB -4 W&C
Sea +3 W&C
Pit -10.5 W&DC
Dall -3.5 W&DC


Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1

YTD 36-10-2 ATS Double digit favorites 1-3 ATS and 4-0 SU

2011 NFL ATS Trends through September 25

Home teams are 23-19-3 (7-7-1 last week)
Favorites are 17-25-3 (4-10-1 last week)
Home Favorites are 12-14-1 (2-5 last week)
Road Favorites are 5-11-2 (2-5-1 last week)
Over/Unders are 27/17/1 (7/8 last week)

Week 4 results

Det +2.5 W&C
Chi -7 W&DC
NO -9 W&C
Tenn +1 W&C
Cincy +3W&C
KC +3 W&C
SF +9.5 W&C
Wash -3 W&C
Hous -4 W&C
Atl -6 W&DC
NYG -1 W&C
GB -12 W&C
NE -6 W&C
SD -6.5 W&C
Balt -5 W&C
TB -10 W&DC

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3

YTD 49-13-2 ATS Double digit favorites 2-4 ATS and 6-0 SU

Freak, nice info on ATS trends, keep them coming. I have a interesting trend that I just read about and will share after I look at it.

Week 5 results

NO -6.5 W&DC
Buff +3 W&C
Sea +10 W&C
Cincy -1 W&C
KC +1 W&C
Pit -3 W&C
Min -3.5 W&C
Oak +4.5 W&C
SF -2.5 W&C
NE -7.5 W&C
SD -3.5 W&C
GB -6 W&C
Det -6.5 W&C


Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1


YTD 61-14-2 ATS Double digit favorites 2-5 ATS and 6-1 SU

Week 6 results

Atl -3.5 W&C
SF +5.5 W&C
Cincy -5 W&C
Phil -3 W&C
GB -14 W&C
Pit -12.5 W&DC
NYG -3 W&P
Oak -6.5 W&C
Balt -7 W&C
TB +6 W&C
NE -6.5 W&DC
Chi -1 W&C
NYJ -7 W&C


Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1

YTD 71-16-3 ATS Double digit favorites 3-6 ATS and 8-1 SU

Week 7 results

NYJ +1 W&C
Clev -3 W&P
Atl +4.5 W&C
Car -1.5 W&C
Chi -1.5 W&C
Den -1 W&C
Hous +3 W&C
Pit -4 W&C
KC +3.5 W&C
GB -10 W&DC
Dall -14 W&C
NO -13.5 W&C
Jack +10 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1

YTD 82-17-4 ATS Double digit favorites 5-8 ATS and 11-2 SU

Week 8 results

Stl +13.5 W&C
NYG -9.5 W&DC
Balt -12 W&DC
Min +3 W&C
Tenn -9 W&C
Hous -10 W&P
Det -3 W&C
Buff -4 W&C
Cincy -1 W&C
SF -9 W&C
Pit +3 W&C
Phily -3 W&C
KC +3 W&C


Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1
Week 8 record 10-2-1


YTD 92-19-5 ATS Double digit favorites 5-10 ATS and 12-3 SU

Week 9 results

Mia +5 W&C
NO -9 W&C
Atl -6.5 W&C
Hous -10.5 W&C
NYJ +2.5 W&C
SF -5 W&C
Dall -11W&DC
Cincy +1.5 W&C
Den +7 W&C
NYG +9.5 W&C
Air -1 W&C
GB -5.5 W&C
Balt +3.5 W&C
Chi +9 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1
Week 8 record 10-2-1
Week 9 record 13-1

YTD 105-20-5 ATS Double digit favorites 6-11 ATS and 14-3 SU

Week 10 results

Oak +7 W&C
Jac -3W&C
Den +3 W&C
Pit -3.5 W&C
Dal -5 W&C
NO +1 W&C
STL +2.5 W&C
Mia -4 W&C
Hous -3.5 W&C
Ten +3.5 W&C
Ari +13.5 W&C
Sea +7 W&C
SF -4 W&C
Chi -2.5 W&C
NE +2.5 W&C
GB -12.5 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1
Week 8 record 10-2-1
Week 9 record 13-1
Week 10 record 16-0

YTD 121-20-5 ATS Double digit favorites 7-12 ATS and 15-4 SU

Week 11 results

Den +6 W&C
Det -7 W&C
GB -13.5 W&DC
Dall -7 W&DC
Mia -3 W&C
Cle -1 W&C
Oak +1 W&C
Balt -7 W&P
Sea +3 W&C
SF -10 W&C
Chi -4.5 W&C
Atl -6 W&P
Phil +6 W&C
NE -17 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1
Week 8 record 10-2-1
Week 9 record 13-1
Week 10 record 16-0
Week 11 record 10-2-2


YTD 131-22-7 ATS Double digit favorites 9-13 ATS and 18-4 SU

Was curious as to why this great thread came to an end? Been meaning to post about this.

Sorry Freak, I changed my focus to CBB and I have not had the time plus I have had some personal issues the last 6 weeks. Looks like my Football picks have shown that lately but hope to get back on track. I will try to update the missing weeks. Happy Holidays to ALL.

Sorry to hear that, hope all is better now. Love this thread and it's good to follow. : )

Week 12 Results

GB -4 W&C
Dall -7 W&DC
Balt -3.5 W&C
Atl -10 W&P
Ari +1 W&C
Hous -6 W&C
Ten -3 W&C
Cincy -6.5 W&DC
NYJ -9.5 W&DC
Car -3.5 W&C
Wash +3 W&C
Oak -3 W&C
NE -3 W&C
Den +4.5 W&C
Pit -10.5 W&DC
NO -7 W&C

Week 1 record 14-2
Week 2 record 11-4-1
Week 3 record 11-4-1
Week 4 record 13-3
Week 5 record 12-1
Week 6 record 10-2-1
Week 7 record 11-1-1
Week 8 record 10-2-1
Week 9 record 13-1
Week 10 record 16-0
Week 11 record 10-2-2
Week 12 record 11-4-1


YTD 142-26-8 ATS Double digit favorites 9-14-1 ATS and 20-4 SU