Before the line came out, I had originally actually thought Green Bay was going to be a four point favorite against the Steelers or six and a half, maybe seven had they played against the Jets. Then when I was re-thinking about it, I thought they might open it at green bay minus two, because they might have wanted to induce action on Green Bay knowing the public was going to like Green Bay. This line is going to go up before it goes down, I can't see more than a half a point, but if you are betting the Packers do it sooner rather than later.
My personal take on the game is that you're going to see the top two defenses in the NFL playing like it. The shootout in 2009 really should not hold a lot of water with how you think this game should be played out; they are two totally different teams. Pitt is going to try to keep Rodgers off the field at all means possible and Green Bay is going to have to keep the running attempts up to keep seams open and linebackers biting. This is why I love the under.
I also like the Green Bay Packers in this one, the reasons why are because of Rodgers versus the Steelers secondary and the Steelers offense versus the Green Bay Defense. I think Rodgers is going to have a good day and be able to take advantage of the secondary, also when he spreads his five wide, he is one of the best QB's at getting the ball out and finding that mismatch quickly. As for the Pittsburgh offense? I'm not completely sold they are going to be able to do a whole lot against this stout defense. I feel like Mendenhall, while is a great running back, isn't going to be able to get much done. Roethlisberger is going to get sacked a lot, and the Packers secondary is quite strong. A big key in this particular match-up is tackling. Packers have some great linebackers who can make tackles, while Ben's biggest strength is being able to break those tackles. If the Packers D can contain Ben from extending the play and not miss their tackles, they should have no problem shutting down the Pittsburgh offense.
Packers take this one, 24-17.