This is my New Years contribution to the people of Freaksforum. There is an old NBA betting angle known as the rested home team.

Now everyone knows that the home team has an edge in any sporting event and this edge is as much as 60-65 % in the NBA. Some of the reasons given are the home crowd, familiar with surroundings, getting the slight bias on the referees calls, and of course the amount of time the team had to rest.

I will let you do your own research on NBA crowd ratings and NBA referee bias. In an attempt to control familiarity I will only rate games here that are Eastern conference team vs Western conference team since they only play each other twice a year, one at each teams home arena.

Now for the qualifications for a rested home team.
1) The visiting team must have played a road game on the previous day. (In other words they are playing the second game of back to back road games.)
2) The home team must have had an off day on the previous day that was not a travel day. (By not a travel day I mean their previous game was a home game or they have had 2 or more days since their previous game if it was an away game.)

I will list all the games that qualify once a week. I may not be available to update the pointspreads every day. I will keep a running tally of my record based on the pointspreads given on the links on this forum. I realize we will be laying some big numbers on obvious favorites. The goal is isolate the best plays available and to track their record. I would not recommend playing these picks blindly but rather in combination with other factors of your own choice.

The play is always on the home team. There are 4 games this week that qualify.

Wednesday Jan 12, 2011
Sacramento @ Boston
New York @ Utah

Thursday 1/13/11
Miami @ Denver

Saturday 1/15/11
Cleveland @ Denver

last week we went 3 wins and 1 loss

Wednesday Jan 12, 2011
Sacramento @ Boston -13 won
New York @ Utah -7 lost
Thursday 1/13/11
Miami @ Denver +4 won

Saturday 1/15/11
Cleveland @ Denver -17 won

This week I only have 2 games that qualify:
Saturday 1/22/11
NY Knicks @ Oklahoma City

Sunday 1/23/11
Indiana @ Denver

Last week I had 1 win and 1 loss:

Saturday 1/22/11
NY Knicks @ Oklahoma City -8 (101-98 won game but didnt cover)

Sunday 1/23/11
Indiana @ Denver -9 (121-107 won and covered)

Now 4 wins and 2 losses for the season.

Just 2 games again this week:

Friday 1/28
Boston @ Phoenix

Saturday 1/29
Charlotte @ LA Clippers

2-0 last week

Friday 1/28
Boston @ Phoenix +4½ (88-71 won and covered)

Saturday 1/29
Charlotte @ LA Clippers -6 (103-88 won and covered)

now 6-2 for the season

I could only find one game for this week:

Thursday 2/3/11
Milwaukee @ Golden State

How am I doing Freak? Feel free to move this thread to selections central if that is where it belongs.

Thank you for sharing your insight, I just stumbled upon this thread today but I will most definetely be checking it again in the future.

Keep it up and good luck!

Is there an update to this at all. It's been a month!

Sorry about the delay I was waiting for the allstar break to get over and the season to return to the daily grind.

Update on the last pick
Thursday 2/3/11
Milwaukee @ Golden State -7 (100-94 won but didnt cover)

6 wins and 3 losses on the season
Remember the play is always on the home team.
I found 3 games for this week:

Saturday March 5
Minnesota @ Washington

Charlotte @ Portland

Tuesday March 8
Portland @ Miami

update:
Saturday March 5
Minnesota @ Washington-4 Won

Charlotte @ Portland-11 Won

Tuesday March 8
Portland @ Miami-9 Lost

now 8-4 on the season.

Wednesday March 9
Golden St @ New Jersey

Wednesday March 9
Golden St @ New Jersey +1½ 94-90 Winner

season to date 9-4 (+4.6 units)

get ready for some more home dog action

Saturday March 12
LA clippers @ Washington

Monday March 14
Oklahoma City @ Washington

I will be back around thursday 3/16

well both the Washington home dog games were big losers. The record now stands at 9-6. The Wiz might be the worse team in the NBA right now. I wont be reccommending them again. If anything I would reccommend fadeing this ragtag bunch the rest of the season.
In fact I was thinking that if I do this thread again next season that I would limit the plays even further to only play on teams with a winning home record vs teams with losing (less than .500) road records. That is how much i hate giving out a losing play; I would be willing to limit myself to one play a week if I have to in order to avoid giving out a losing play.
Thats the catch with these system plays. They sound great on paper but there is always some kind of complication when you try to implement it in real life. Anyway enough with the ranting lets go find some winners!

Saturday March 19

Boston @ New Orleans
(Boston is 19-12 away N.O. 24-10 home)

Philadelphia @ Portland
(Philly is 13-22 away and Portland is 22-10 home)

Monday March 21
Sacramento @ Chicago
(Sac 7-24 away Chi 30-4 home)

Wednesday March 23
Washington @ LA Clippers
(Wash 1-30 away LA 18-16 home)

recap of last week:

Saturday March 19

Boston @ New Orleans +1½ 89-85 lost

Philadelphia @ Portland -7½ 110-101 won

Monday March 21
Sacramento @ Chicago -15½ 132-92 won

Wednesday March 23
Washington @ LA Clippers -13½ 127-119 lost

went 2-2 this week for a season record of 11-8 which is +2.2 units

I found 1 play for the upcoming week

Monday March 28
Washington @ Utah