Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central Fade The Public NCAAF 2010

I will post selections that the public is heavily on at one sports book and you should look to fade the selection because the public is a perennial loser at this sports book.

This will be for CFB on Saturday's Only and I'll make it a point to post every Friday night.

#150 Michigan St -23.5 91.73% Winner
#161 Texas -31 93.46% Loser
#173 Syracuse -7.5 90.30% Winner
#178 Oklahoma St -17 92.21% Winner
#182 Oklahoma -33.5 91.96% Loser
#188 LSU -9.5 90.85% Loser
#191 Wisconsin -19.5 93.62% Winner

Keep in mind this is at one sportsbook only and when I have done this post in the past it put a lot of money in the pockets of the faders. That doesn't mean the public will continue to lose but history has shown that they do. Just in looking at these games these are big school playing weaker teams and with the exception of Syracuse these teams have done well the last few years. I don't think they will lose them all, this is cupcake week number one.

Good luck.

GOOD SHIT!!

Public starts off the first Saturday with a 4-3 mark. Let's see how long this lasts.

Public 4-3 +.7 units
Faders 3-4 -1.4 units

Keep in mind this is just from one sportsbook but it is a very "square" sportsbook all plays listed are what the public has taken and bet with over 90% of the action to the side listed. You should look to fade and take the other side.

Week 2 NCAA

#310 E Carolina -13 91.63% Winner
#334 Miami Ohio -13.5 90.72% Loser
#336 Boston College -17.5 97.03% Loser
#339 BYU +2 90.75% Loser
#348 Tulsa -17 90.58% Loser
#352 Texas A&M -19.5 95.65% Winner
#358 Baylor -15 97.42% Winner
#363 San Diego St -14 96.03% Winner
#366 SMU -11.5 90.13% Winner
#369 Mississippi -20.5 96.10% Loser

A lot of games where the public is on a side with over 90% of the bets with just one sportsbook. Should be interesting to see how this goes. Even at 5-5 the sportsbook makes out nicely. Public needs to hit 6/10 to make money. I'll side with the books on these games.

very good information! Thanks freak!!

This is some really good info here, in the longrun the public will lose, so I imagine this system might be a little bit bumpy early on but by the end of the season this should be a nice moneymaker.

gl!

Week 2 Results

Public 5-5 -.5 units
Faders 5-5 -.5 units

Overall

Public 9-8 +.2 units
Faders 8-9 -1.9 units

Public got beat up early but had a good evening to counter the poor start. The books make out both ways with the public/faders losing juice.

Week 3

#112 Kansas St -3.5 93.47% Winner
#133 Alabama -24 94.27% Winner
#152 Oregon St -20 92.36% Loser
#161 Navy -3 92.56% Winner
#168 W Michigan -3.5 93.09% Loser
#177 Utah -23 94.12% Winner
#203 Middle Tenn St -3.5 90.91% Loser
#205 Troy -3.5 98.11% Loser

The last game is a total puzzler over 98% on 1 side. I think the public wins a few of these today but overall they should be taken to the woodshed. I just can't see them being in the + after today. They need to go 5-3 to make that happen. This should be interesting.

Week 3 Results

Public 4-4 -.4 units
Faders 4-4 -.4 units

Overall

Public 13-12 -.2 units
Faders 12-13 -2.3 units

Books made out again on the public and the faders as both sides lost units. The big public play of Troy -3.5 lost straight up and I couldn't find any reason as to why it was so lopsided in bets.

Will continue with this next Saturday and see if we can get the faders in the win column. Just goes to show public has won 52% of the games and yet is now in the negative and I would be surprised to see it ever back in the plus side.

Week 4

#326 Connecticut -20 93.86% Winner
#333 Air Force -13.5 94.11% Loser
#339 Oklahoma -14 97.40% Loser
#350 Texas -16.5 90.17% Loser
#364 Tennessee -14 93.49 Loser
#366 Indiana -23 90.63% Loser
#377 Baylor -7.5 95.95% Winner
#379 N Carolina -2 96.97% Winner
#384 Utep -11.5 93.81% Loser
#386 UNLV -10.5 96.95% Winner
#387 Oregon -11.5 91.27% Loser
#394 Florida Atlantic -10.5 92.31% Loser

12 plays by the public over 90% and they need to go 7-5 to make money. I would be super surprised to see them win 5 games nonetheless 7. Lots of chalk to eat on Saturday. Stranger things have happened.

Week 4 Results

Public 4-8 -4.8 units
Faders 8-4 +3.6 units

Overall

Public 17-20 -5 units
Faders 20-17 +1.3 units

Public has a major blow up on Saturday as heavily bet teams failed to show up to either win or cover. In all of my years of doing this, I have never seen the public overcome a negative 5 units at any point in the season. Granted right now the faders profit margin is slim and took 4 weeks to get into the plus, but I don't think we'll see it in the negative again either.

Week 5

#109 Ohio U -9.5 -115 96.10% WINNER
#112 C Michigan -18.5 96.43% LOSER SU
#126 Rutgers -17.5 95.70% LOSER SU
#129 Georgia Tech -10 90.86% LOSER
#131 Texas Tech -7 94.08% LOSER SU
#159 NO Illinois -13.5 97.80% WINNER
#161 Utep -15 95.86% WINNER
#166 Toledo -4.5 96.99% LOSER SU
#176 Iowa -7 90.39% WINNER
#183 Nevada -21 91.02% LOSER

10 plays in all the public needs to win 6 of them to make a profit. I just don't see it. A lot of chalk once again. Last Saturday there was bloodshed not only for the public fades but for almost everyone. The newsletters, handicappers and the public got their ass smashed last week. It was a huge winning week for the books last Saturday. There wasn't many cashed tickets out there, so keep that in mind when you look to wager later today.

Week 5 Results

Public 4-6 -2.6 units
Faders 6-4 +1.6 units

Overall

Public 21-26 -7.6 units
Faders 26-21 +2.9 units

4 of the Underdog Fades won SU as the public takes on more losses and the faders pick up a little bit more today.

Week 6

#324 Cincinnati -17 91.70% WINNER
#356 Kent St -18 91.49% LOSER
#383 Oregon -36.5 93.55% LOSER
#387 Auburn -6 92.95% LOSER
#398 Boise St -39 94.72% WINNER

This week the public is only pounding 5 games with one side taking over 90% of the action. No surprise seeing Oregon and Boise St in the list. Interesting choices by the public, there is one game on this list I would take a solid stand against. Keep in mind the public money has a lot to digest with MLB Playoffs, NHL, NBAE and football, so money is going to be spread out over the coming weeks even more than ever.

The public needs to win 3 of 5 to slow down the train wreck in progress. It's possible it can be done with this card. We shall see at the end of the day.

Week 6 Results

Public 2-3 -1.3 units
Faders 3-2 +.8 units

Overall

Public 23-29 -8.9 units
Faders 29-23 +3.7 units

Faders beat the public for the third week in a row and add to their winnings. Not sure if anyone is following or not, there hasn't been a comment outside of my own for quite a while.

Week 7

#123 N Carolina St -7.5 90.48% LOSER
#132 Alabama -20.5 91.46% LOSER
#134 Oklahoma -22.5 93.43% WINNER
#138 Ball St -15 90.80% LOSER SU
#173 Utah -20.5 97.69% WINNER
#181 SO Mississippi -14.5 92.63% WINNER
#191 Boise St -40.5 92.56% WINNER

Week 7 Results

Public 4-3 +.7 units
Faders 3-4 -1.4 units

Overall

Public 27-32 -8.2 units
Faders 32-27 +2.3 units

Week 8

#310 Virginia Tech -27 94.02% WINNER
#319 Temple -8 94.34% WINNER
#337 S Carolina -12.5 97.70% WINNER
#341 Ohio -2.5 97.24% WINNER
#358 NO Illinois -11 92.63% WINNER
#366 California -3.5 93.84% WINNER
#372 Idaho -24 98.03% LOSER
#376 Utah -30.5 95.57% WINNER
#380 Virginia -23.5 94.59% WINNER
#381 Georgia -4 93.58% WINNER
#384 C Florida -22 98.88% WINNER
#389 Fresno St -19 95.86% LOSER
#394 Utep -9.5 97.67% LOSER SU
#395 San Diego St -24.5 95.95% LOSER

An incredible overload of games by the public with 14 games that are absolutely getting pounded. You know what you need to do here. Public needs to win 8 of 14 to win. I can't see it happening. If I had money to wager, I would be all over this today.

Week 8 Results

Public 10-4 +5.6 units
Faders 4-10 -7 units

Overall

Public 37-36 -2.6 units
Faders 36-37 -4.7 units

Public went on a killing spree today and would've been 11-3 if there wasn't a late score in the final 20 seconds of the Idaho game. Note that even though the public picked up 5.6 units overall the faders lost 7 meaning there is still a net to the books of 1.4 units. This is where the vig comes into play.

Now both sides are down a combined 7.3 units for the year. The books love this and are making money. You might be thinking if the bets came in 90%+ and won and the faders were less than 10% how did the book win. Keep in mind the public money is usually a small amount of money but with lots of bets. The smart $ overcomes the volumes of bets with much larger bets. This isn't too say some of the sharp money was on these games and won as well. It's a delicate balance.

This is a very unusual day for the public, out of the 14 games the spread came into play only twice (Idaho & SD ST) all of the other 12 games if you won you covered no matter what the spread was.

Stuff for those that are following along to ponder as we move forward into the season. There's a long way to go.

Week 9

#108 Cincinnati -5.5 95.60% LOSER
#121 Clemson -6.5 91.51% LOSER SU
#130 Arkansas -20 91.57% WINNER
#140 Temple -29.5 93.38% WINNER
#149 SMU -7.5 97.87% WINNER
#153 Stanford -7.5 94.68% WINNER
#166 Oklahoma -23.5 97.26% WINNER
#167 Miami Ohio -2.5 92.86% WINNER
#173 Toledo -10.5 90.67% WINNER
#176 Nevada -26.5 90.58% LOSER
#185 Houston -13.5 98.21% WINNER
#189 Ohio St -25.5 92.91% WINNER
#198 Hawaii -15.5 98.25% WINNER

Did you ever try this with totals...I like the concept and its very true... analyze the open line with a close eye as the public can be right sometimes... ie Louisville last week and KC in the pros both lines moved more than 6 and still covered...I still roll with the theory though as its a high percentage play...Thanks Freak GOOD intel as usual...

PP those lines moved on those games last week because of injuries not a steam by the public. While the open line came out as it did, injury and suspension info came out and the lines were readjusted. Pretty big difference between money flowing in and those situations.

You'll see the lines move in NCAA Hoops due to steam money more than you will in NCAAF

Week 9 Results

Public 10-3 +6.7 units
Faders 3-10 -8 units

Overall

Public 47-39 +4.1 units
Faders 39-47 -12.7 units

Public runs wild once again winning for the third week in a row and the second week big. In a highly unusual turn around the public is once again in the + while faders are wondering what hit them the last two weeks. In all the years I have done this the public has never ended the season ahead and never in the plus this late. a 24-10 record the last three weeks pulled them out of the hole.

The spread only came into play in one game as Nevada spit the bit up 35-0 at 1/2 time and couldn't stop a High School JV team in the second half giving up 42 points.

Week 10

#331 Wisconsin -20 91.46% WINNER
#346 Ball St -13.5 90.65% LOSER
#350 Tulsa -17 92.63% WINNER
#356 Utah St -18.5 95.54% LOSER
#360 Oregon -35.5 93.90% WINNER
#361 So Mississippi -10 92.25% WINNER
#379 California -14.5 94.00% LOSER
#389 Tennessee -20 91.80% WINNER

Will the public continue it's roll or will they crash back to reality?

Week 10 Results

Public 5-3 +1.7 units
Faders 3-5 -2.5 units

Overall

Public 52-42 +5.8 units
Faders 42-52 -15.2 units

Public wins again... faders once again take the bullet.

Week 11

#134 Illinois -20.5 95.16% LOSER SU
#136 N Carolina St -18.5 95.58% WINNER
#148 Kentucky -14.5 94.90% WINNER
#167 Oregon -19.5 92.07% LOSER
#169 Stanford -5 95.93% LOSER
#172 Navy -14 91.74% LOSER
#192 Oregon St -23 92.06% LOSER SU

Week 11 Results

Public 2-5 -3.5 units
Faders 5-2 +2.8 units

Overall

Public 54-47 +2.3 units
Faders 47-54 -12.4 units

Public finally loses but is still up through 11 weeks hitting a shade below 54% for the season. Pretty remarkable considering where things were about a month ago.

Still some time for the public to lose all their gains. Time will tell.

Finally!!!

Week 12

#317 Tennessee -9 95.38% WINNER
#332 Michigan St -19.5 90.54% LOSER
#339 Oklahoma St -24 94.53% WINNER
#341 Arkansas -2.5 92.53% WINNER
#343 NO Illinois -14.5 92.37% WINNER
#350 Tulsa -17 94.86% LOSER
#365 C Florida -18.5 96.26% WINNER
#374 Ala Birmingham -20 96.63% LOSER
#376 BYU -30 90.24% WINNER

Chalkamania runnin wild! I predict a winning card for the public with these plays.

Week 12 Results

Public 6-3 +2.7 units
Faders 3-6 -3.6 units

Overall

Public 60-50 +5 units
Faders 50-60 -16 units

As I predicted the public had a successful day. Looks like the public is going to have a winning season with the over 90% on one side bets this NCAA Football season. The NFL never has percentages over 90%. May have to start looking at NCAA Hoops but it's a bit tougher since it's a daily event for the most part. However the public historically hasn't done well there either. Maybe winds of change coming.

Keep in mind this 90% play is from 1 very popular square sportsbook and isn't the overall % for all sportsbooks.

I decided to fade this week and lost big...smh

Week 13

Friday Only for this post, Saturday to follow later:

#117 NO Illinois -23.5 97.79 WINNER
#136 Oregon -18.5 90.50% WINNER

2-0 on Friday heading into Saturday.....

Saturday

#155 C Florida -25.5 95.32% LOSER
#175 Hawaii -27.5 99.12% <---- This is the highest % all year and would be the public's GOY WINNER
#190 Stanford -13 92.95% WINNER
#196 Texas Tech -9.5 94.20% WINNER
#199 Louisiana Tech -13 91.84% LOSER
#202 San Diego St -25 97.29% WINNER
#204 Fresno St -10.5 98.07% LOSER

Week 13 Results

Public 6-3 +2.7 units
Faders 3-6 -3.6 units

Overall

Public 66-53 +7.7 units
Faders 53-66 -18.7 units

Public goes 2-0 on Friday, 4-3 on Saturday for another winning week. What I perceived to be the publivs GOY with an astonishing 99.12% on Hawaii was a winner.

While newsletters, the majority of services and sharps lost heavily today, the public once again grinded a win on the above 90% plays.

This is an absolute first in NCAA Football since I've done this thread that the 90% above plays have won $.

One more week left, I don't expect many if any plays, then bowl games. Once NCAA hoops gets into full swing, I'll try to do a nightly update. I guarantee you right now you want to fade the public in NCAA Hoops above 90% they will not win and it will be downright ugly for the public...

Week 14

#326 Idaho -14 90.38

That's it for this week.

Week 14 Results

Public 0-1 -1.1 units
Faders 1-0 +1 units

Overall

Public 66-54 +6.6 units
Faders 54-66 -17.7 units