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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,145 Likes: 10 California
2017, 2009 & 2004 Bad Man Champion
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2017, 2009 & 2004 Bad Man Champion
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,145 Likes: 10 California |
Did you ever try this with totals...I like the concept and its very true... analyze the open line with a close eye as the public can be right sometimes... ie Louisville last week and KC in the pros both lines moved more than 6 and still covered...I still roll with the theory though as its a high percentage play...Thanks Freak GOOD intel as usual...
Let you put all your good intentions and thoughts into actions, or otherwise, they will mean nothing, and soon disappear...
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
PP those lines moved on those games last week because of injuries not a steam by the public. While the open line came out as it did, injury and suspension info came out and the lines were readjusted. Pretty big difference between money flowing in and those situations.
You'll see the lines move in NCAA Hoops due to steam money more than you will in NCAAF
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 9 Results
Public 10-3 +6.7 units Faders 3-10 -8 units
Overall
Public 47-39 +4.1 units Faders 39-47 -12.7 units
Public runs wild once again winning for the third week in a row and the second week big. In a highly unusual turn around the public is once again in the + while faders are wondering what hit them the last two weeks. In all the years I have done this the public has never ended the season ahead and never in the plus this late. a 24-10 record the last three weeks pulled them out of the hole.
The spread only came into play in one game as Nevada spit the bit up 35-0 at 1/2 time and couldn't stop a High School JV team in the second half giving up 42 points.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 10
#331 Wisconsin -20 91.46% WINNER #346 Ball St -13.5 90.65% LOSER #350 Tulsa -17 92.63% WINNER #356 Utah St -18.5 95.54% LOSER #360 Oregon -35.5 93.90% WINNER #361 So Mississippi -10 92.25% WINNER #379 California -14.5 94.00% LOSER #389 Tennessee -20 91.80% WINNER
Will the public continue it's roll or will they crash back to reality?
Last edited by FREAK; 11/07/10 08:18 AM.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 10 Results
Public 5-3 +1.7 units Faders 3-5 -2.5 units
Overall
Public 52-42 +5.8 units Faders 42-52 -15.2 units
Public wins again... faders once again take the bullet.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
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Week 11
#134 Illinois -20.5 95.16% LOSER SU #136 N Carolina St -18.5 95.58% WINNER #148 Kentucky -14.5 94.90% WINNER #167 Oregon -19.5 92.07% LOSER #169 Stanford -5 95.93% LOSER #172 Navy -14 91.74% LOSER #192 Oregon St -23 92.06% LOSER SU
Last edited by FREAK; 11/14/10 10:20 AM.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 11 Results
Public 2-5 -3.5 units Faders 5-2 +2.8 units
Overall
Public 54-47 +2.3 units Faders 47-54 -12.4 units
Public finally loses but is still up through 11 weeks hitting a shade below 54% for the season. Pretty remarkable considering where things were about a month ago.
Still some time for the public to lose all their gains. Time will tell.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,143 Likes: 15 Cambodia
2020 Bad Man Runner Up
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2020 Bad Man Runner Up
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,143 Likes: 15 Cambodia |
CHARGE it to the GAME
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 12
#317 Tennessee -9 95.38% WINNER #332 Michigan St -19.5 90.54% LOSER #339 Oklahoma St -24 94.53% WINNER #341 Arkansas -2.5 92.53% WINNER #343 NO Illinois -14.5 92.37% WINNER #350 Tulsa -17 94.86% LOSER #365 C Florida -18.5 96.26% WINNER #374 Ala Birmingham -20 96.63% LOSER #376 BYU -30 90.24% WINNER
Chalkamania runnin wild! I predict a winning card for the public with these plays.
Last edited by FREAK; 11/21/10 09:22 AM.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 12 Results
Public 6-3 +2.7 units Faders 3-6 -3.6 units
Overall
Public 60-50 +5 units Faders 50-60 -16 units
As I predicted the public had a successful day. Looks like the public is going to have a winning season with the over 90% on one side bets this NCAA Football season. The NFL never has percentages over 90%. May have to start looking at NCAA Hoops but it's a bit tougher since it's a daily event for the most part. However the public historically hasn't done well there either. Maybe winds of change coming.
Keep in mind this 90% play is from 1 very popular square sportsbook and isn't the overall % for all sportsbooks.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,143 Likes: 15 Cambodia
2020 Bad Man Runner Up
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2020 Bad Man Runner Up
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,143 Likes: 15 Cambodia |
I decided to fade this week and lost big...smh
CHARGE it to the GAME
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
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Week 13
Friday Only for this post, Saturday to follow later:
#117 NO Illinois -23.5 97.79 WINNER #136 Oregon -18.5 90.50% WINNER
Last edited by FREAK; 11/27/10 11:19 AM.
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 Re: Fade The Public
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
2-0 on Friday heading into Saturday.....
Saturday
#155 C Florida -25.5 95.32% LOSER #175 Hawaii -27.5 99.12% <---- This is the highest % all year and would be the public's GOY WINNER #190 Stanford -13 92.95% WINNER #196 Texas Tech -9.5 94.20% WINNER #199 Louisiana Tech -13 91.84% LOSER #202 San Diego St -25 97.29% WINNER #204 Fresno St -10.5 98.07% LOSER
Last edited by FREAK; 11/28/10 11:09 AM.
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 Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 13 Results
Public 6-3 +2.7 units Faders 3-6 -3.6 units
Overall
Public 66-53 +7.7 units Faders 53-66 -18.7 units
Public goes 2-0 on Friday, 4-3 on Saturday for another winning week. What I perceived to be the publivs GOY with an astonishing 99.12% on Hawaii was a winner.
While newsletters, the majority of services and sharps lost heavily today, the public once again grinded a win on the above 90% plays.
This is an absolute first in NCAA Football since I've done this thread that the 90% above plays have won $.
One more week left, I don't expect many if any plays, then bowl games. Once NCAA hoops gets into full swing, I'll try to do a nightly update. I guarantee you right now you want to fade the public in NCAA Hoops above 90% they will not win and it will be downright ugly for the public...
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 Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 14
#326 Idaho -14 90.38
That's it for this week.
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 Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010
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Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game
Owner
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OP
Owner
Joined: Dec 2000
Posts: 280,089 Likes: 2803 Time to play the Game |
Week 14 Results
Public 0-1 -1.1 units Faders 1-0 +1 units
Overall
Public 66-54 +6.6 units Faders 54-66 -17.7 units
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