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#212815 - 10/30/10 08:03 PM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
Parlaypaulie Offline
2004 & 2009 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 08/18/03
Posts: 418
Loc: California
Did you ever try this with totals...I like the concept and its very true... analyze the open line with a close eye as the public can be right sometimes... ie Louisville last week and KC in the pros both lines moved more than 6 and still covered...I still roll with the theory though as its a high percentage play...Thanks Freak GOOD intel as usual...

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#212816 - 10/30/10 08:35 PM Re: Fade The Public [Re: Parlaypaulie]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
PP those lines moved on those games last week because of injuries not a steam by the public. While the open line came out as it did, injury and suspension info came out and the lines were readjusted. Pretty big difference between money flowing in and those situations.

You'll see the lines move in NCAA Hoops due to steam money more than you will in NCAAF
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#212829 - 10/31/10 02:31 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 9 Results

Public 10-3 +6.7 units
Faders 3-10 -8 units

Overall

Public 47-39 +4.1 units
Faders 39-47 -12.7 units

Public runs wild once again winning for the third week in a row and the second week big. In a highly unusual turn around the public is once again in the + while faders are wondering what hit them the last two weeks. In all the years I have done this the public has never ended the season ahead and never in the plus this late. a 24-10 record the last three weeks pulled them out of the hole.

The spread only came into play in one game as Nevada spit the bit up 35-0 at 1/2 time and couldn't stop a High School JV team in the second half giving up 42 points.
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#213106 - 11/06/10 01:17 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 10

#331 Wisconsin -20 91.46% WINNER
#346 Ball St -13.5 90.65% LOSER
#350 Tulsa -17 92.63% WINNER
#356 Utah St -18.5 95.54% LOSER
#360 Oregon -35.5 93.90% WINNER
#361 So Mississippi -10 92.25% WINNER
#379 California -14.5 94.00% LOSER
#389 Tennessee -20 91.80% WINNER

Will the public continue it's roll or will they crash back to reality?


Edited by FREAK (11/07/10 01:18 AM)
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#213225 - 11/07/10 01:19 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 10 Results

Public 5-3 +1.7 units
Faders 3-5 -2.5 units

Overall

Public 52-42 +5.8 units
Faders 42-52 -15.2 units

Public wins again... faders once again take the bullet.
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#213801 - 11/13/10 03:57 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 11

#134 Illinois -20.5 95.16% LOSER SU
#136 N Carolina St -18.5 95.58% WINNER
#148 Kentucky -14.5 94.90% WINNER
#167 Oregon -19.5 92.07% LOSER
#169 Stanford -5 95.93% LOSER
#172 Navy -14 91.74% LOSER
#192 Oregon St -23 92.06% LOSER SU


Edited by FREAK (11/14/10 02:20 AM)
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#213872 - 11/14/10 02:22 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 11 Results

Public 2-5 -3.5 units
Faders 5-2 +2.8 units

Overall

Public 54-47 +2.3 units
Faders 47-54 -12.4 units

Public finally loses but is still up through 11 weeks hitting a shade below 54% for the season. Pretty remarkable considering where things were about a month ago.

Still some time for the public to lose all their gains. Time will tell.
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#213987 - 11/15/10 02:23 PM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
UPTwnCLwn Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/23/07
Posts: 1034
Loc: TX
Finally!!!
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CHARGE it to the GAME

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#214261 - 11/20/10 04:51 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: UPTwnCLwn]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 12

#317 Tennessee -9 95.38% WINNER
#332 Michigan St -19.5 90.54% LOSER
#339 Oklahoma St -24 94.53% WINNER
#341 Arkansas -2.5 92.53% WINNER
#343 NO Illinois -14.5 92.37% WINNER
#350 Tulsa -17 94.86% LOSER
#365 C Florida -18.5 96.26% WINNER
#374 Ala Birmingham -20 96.63% LOSER
#376 BYU -30 90.24% WINNER

Chalkamania runnin wild! I predict a winning card for the public with these plays.




Edited by FREAK (11/21/10 01:22 AM)
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#214333 - 11/21/10 01:26 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 12 Results

Public 6-3 +2.7 units
Faders 3-6 -3.6 units

Overall

Public 60-50 +5 units
Faders 50-60 -16 units

As I predicted the public had a successful day. Looks like the public is going to have a winning season with the over 90% on one side bets this NCAA Football season. The NFL never has percentages over 90%. May have to start looking at NCAA Hoops but it's a bit tougher since it's a daily event for the most part. However the public historically hasn't done well there either. Maybe winds of change coming.

Keep in mind this 90% play is from 1 very popular square sportsbook and isn't the overall % for all sportsbooks.
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#214455 - 11/22/10 02:08 PM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
UPTwnCLwn Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/23/07
Posts: 1034
Loc: TX
I decided to fade this week and lost big...smh
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CHARGE it to the GAME

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#214638 - 11/26/10 04:14 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: UPTwnCLwn]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 13

Friday Only for this post, Saturday to follow later:

#117 NO Illinois -23.5 97.79 WINNER
#136 Oregon -18.5 90.50% WINNER


Edited by FREAK (11/27/10 03:19 AM)
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#214663 - 11/27/10 03:25 AM Re: Fade The Public [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
2-0 on Friday heading into Saturday.....

Saturday

#155 C Florida -25.5 95.32% LOSER
#175 Hawaii -27.5 99.12% <---- This is the highest % all year and would be the public's GOY WINNER
#190 Stanford -13 92.95% WINNER
#196 Texas Tech -9.5 94.20% WINNER
#199 Louisiana Tech -13 91.84% LOSER
#202 San Diego St -25 97.29% WINNER
#204 Fresno St -10.5 98.07% LOSER


Edited by FREAK (11/28/10 03:09 AM)
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#214737 - 11/28/10 03:13 AM Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 13 Results

Public 6-3 +2.7 units
Faders 3-6 -3.6 units

Overall

Public 66-53 +7.7 units
Faders 53-66 -18.7 units

Public goes 2-0 on Friday, 4-3 on Saturday for another winning week. What I perceived to be the publivs GOY with an astonishing 99.12% on Hawaii was a winner.

While newsletters, the majority of services and sharps lost heavily today, the public once again grinded a win on the above 90% plays.

This is an absolute first in NCAA Football since I've done this thread that the 90% above plays have won $.

One more week left, I don't expect many if any plays, then bowl games. Once NCAA hoops gets into full swing, I'll try to do a nightly update. I guarantee you right now you want to fade the public in NCAA Hoops above 90% they will not win and it will be downright ugly for the public...
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Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.

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#214931 - 12/04/10 05:55 AM Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 14

#326 Idaho -14 90.38

That's it for this week.
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Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.

FREAK

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#214985 - 12/05/10 03:09 AM Re: Fade The Public NCAAF 2010 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
Week 14 Results

Public 0-1 -1.1 units
Faders 1-0 +1 units

Overall

Public 66-54 +6.6 units
Faders 54-66 -17.7 units
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.

FREAK

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