Courtesy of Jeremy Plonk and HorsePlayerNow
What to Watch for Today:
Cue up Bing, it’s time to get this party started. Today’s opening day card features the $100,000 Oceanside Stakes, where trainer Bob Baffert looks to get off to a fast start with Macias. Baffert saddles runners in no less than five of the 10 races this afternoon, and the early numbers indicate he’s playing for keeps this summer.
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The meet opens with a traditional one-mile race on the main track so that the fans can see the start up close and personal. We had 41 such races at this distance on Polytrack last summer, and only 6 of the 41 winners led after the opening half-mile. In fact, only 6 of the winners were even within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. (Also note that mile stats when you evaluate Race 4 today). In the opener, keep a close eye on #1 Joe Carl, who is ridden by Joel Rosario. That pilot won an astounding 8 of the 41 one-mile races on Polytrack last summer, and trainer Peter Miller has won as many opening week races the past 3 years as any other trainer (8). Only Mike Mitchell has as many opening week victories during that span, 8 as well, and he saddles #2 Skellytown.
Race 2 opens the turf racing for the meeting and there appears to be a solid amount of early pace, setting things up for a horse who can finish late. Statistically it’s been difficult for claimers to win on the lead over this turf course the past 3 years anyway. Only 7 of the 41 turf claiming routes have been won by the half-mile leader. The average winner at this class closes from about 3-3/4 lengths off the lead after a half-mile.
The 6-1/2 furlong distance can be tricky for sprinters asked to extend themselves that extra half-furlong. Note that favorites are just 13-for-50 (26%) in claiming sprints at 6-1/2 furlongs all-time on the Polytrack. Cheap speed has almost never been successful. Only 1 of the 50 races has been won by the half-mile leader whose odds was 10-to-1 or more. #5 Malusita tries to turn back from a two-turn route to a sprint; that’s been tough to do at this class level and distance. Only 1 of the 50 claiming races at 6-1/2 furlongs on Polytrack has been won by a horse who most recently raced around 2 turns.
Maiden claimers race around 2 turns in Race 4. Interestingly, we’ve had only 35 route races on Polytrack for maiden claimers (while there have been 208 sprints for maiden claimers). One note that stands out as you look at #5 Shredder, a rookie for Bob Baffert: none of the 35 prior maiden claiming routes has been won by a first-time starter.
Allowance runners route 1-1/16 miles in Race 5, where #2 Stremitelniy comes off of a dirt win and #5 In The Paint raids from the Churchill Downs turf course. Note that in the 38 previous entry-level allowance/optional claiming routes on Polytrack, 11 have been won in turf-to-Polytrack style, but none by a horse who last raced on dirt.
Race 6 will be at a mile on the turf, just as will be the Race 8 featured Oceanside Stakes. Only 16 of 90 turf miles the last 3 summers have been won by the half-mile leader. The average winner was behind about 3-1/2 lengths at that juncture. Note that jockey Victor Espinoza on #8 Ruffled Feathers has won no less than 8 turf miles the last 3 summers, second-most of any rider. Trainer Paddy Gallagher also has won a turf mile allowance in 2007, 2008 and 2009, so she’s in good hands.
Pedigree pointers could be necessary in Race 7 as inexperienced maidens, albeit 3-year-olds and older, face the starter. Sires to give extra consideration to in this particular field include: Tiznow (#1a Rote), who has produced 8 Del Mar Polytrack winners all-time; Johannesburg (#6 Moondance Ali), who has produced 6; More Than Ready (#8 Primed), also with 6 winners; and Stormy Atlantic (#5 Go On Babe), who has produced 5 winners.
Don’t expect a big upset in Race 9. We’ve had 44 past races for the non-winners of 2 lifetime claiming condition on the Polytrack, and only 3 of those races produced a winner above 10-1 odds. The biggest upset? A trio of 11-1 shots from 44 races.
Maiden claimers dash 5-1/2 furlongs in the Race 10 nightcap. Interestingly, only 23 of the 112 winners at this distance all-time on Polytrack had raced at 6 furlongs or longer last time out. Stick with the dashers. First-time starters have won 15 of the 61 maiden claiming races at 5-1/2 furlongs, nearly one-quarter of the offerings, while favorites are a rock-solid 23-for-61. #8 Bigmikeistheman could live up to his name exiting solid dash tries for a Jerry Fanning barn that has won a maiden claiming dash at this distance in both the 2007 and 2008 Del Mar meetings.
Feature Race Facts:
The Race 8 Oceanside Stakes at a turf mile matches 3-year-olds in the kickoff to the Del Mar Derby series. Favorites have gone 25-for-62 in turf stakes the past 3 summers at Del Mar, but rarely have been won by horses making a surface change from the all-weather to the grass. Only 8 of the 62 grass stakes from 2007-’09 have been won by horses changing surfaces, something to consider with #3 Twirling Candy, #7 Domonation, #8 Just Magic and #9 Gallant Gent. Certainly Twirling Candy and Domonation are in capable hands as trainer John Sadler has won 5 turf stakes over the past 3 Del Mar summers.
Jockey David Flores has glistened in turf mile races at Del Mar, winning a colony-best 10 of them over the past 3 summers. He pairs with #5 Hockley, who has been first or second in all 3 career turf mile starts. That’s where I’m leaning in the opening day feature, as each of the past 6 Oceanside winners exited a prep race at a mile or longer.
