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#207012 - 07/15/10 07:14 AM Thursday Ponies
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Alw $52,000N1X (1:00 ET)

#4 Hatheer 2/1
#1 Echt 10/1
#6 More Is Better 5/2
#3 Phantom Rising 3/1

Analysis: #4 Hatheer exits a tough Alw-1 race going long at Monmouth Park where the filly raced wide much of the trip, weakening to finish sixth. Four runners have exited that race to run back, the winner and third place finisher next out winners. This gal has quite the pedigree, by Storm Cat out of the multiple turf stakes winner Golden Apples ($1.6 million). She put in a bullet breeze over the main track and she showed some early zip when she made her debut last summer at the Spa going 5 1/2 furlongs on grass.

#1 Echt is shipping in from Penn for the always dangerous Beattie barn. The mare is sitting on the AE list in a race at Penn on Wednesday night. She is coming off a third last out going long on the turf versus Alw-2 optional claimers. The barn is 29% winners moving runners from route to sprint. She fits here at a decent price if she ships in.

Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:45 ET)

#1 Extra Zip 12/1
#3 Gold Vendetta 7/2
#9 Mor Chances 2/1
#8 Hot Money 5/2

Analysis: #1 Extra Zip had a solid year in ’09, winning five of his eight starts and bankrolling moiré than $150,000. His two starts this year have not been pretty, beaten a combined 38 lengths in two routes on the turf. He cuts back to seven furlongs here and picks up Desormeaux. The gelding did win at this distance and level last May, and that was off a nine-month layoff. He is a four-time winner over the turf here and the cut back for his third start off the bench could wake him up. He draws the rail and has enough tactical speed that the jock should get him a good spot early.

#3 Gold Vendetta made a good late rally and was caught in traffic at the quarterpole last out, showing good interest late to finish third, beaten 1 ½ lengths for the top spot at this level. Two back at today's level he was a dozen lengths back and rallied strongly to finish a close up third, beaten just a half length for the top spot. He gets the extra furlong today with a jock upgrade to CVel.

#9 Mor Chances won at this level last out for his third turf win in eight tries. The Dutrow barn claimed this guy from Rice and proceeded to win four straight stakes on dirt. He is a better dirt horse and the price is going to be on the light side, so we will try to beat the likely favorite for the top spot while still using him underneath in the exotics.

Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,8,9
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,3,5,8,9

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

R1: #1 Echt 10/1
R4: #2 Richie Rules 12/1
R4: #5 Love of Life 10/1
R5: #1 Unbridled Heat 10/1
R6: #4 Crystal Galopdoff 10/1
R8: #1 Extra Zip 12/1
R9: #6 Luna Pegasus 8/1
R9: #8 Ghosts and Legends 12/1

Good luck today!

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#207013 - 07/15/10 07:15 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BEL 6th (3:40)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Claiming ($25,000) | Purse: $23,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Catalina Lady Velazquez J R O'Brien Keith 119 $25,000 FTL 12-1
2 2 Deonzion Rodriguez J Terracciano Neal 116 7 $25,000 L 10-1
3 3 Sundae's a Meese Chavez J F Barker Edward R 119 $25,000 L 3-1
4 4 Crystal Galopoff Serpa A Ryerson James T 118 5 $25,000 L 10-1
5 5 No Imagination Prado E S Hennig Mark 119 $25,000 L 5-2
6 6 Lemon Tiger Maragh R Schettino Dominick A 119 $25,000 L 7-2
7 7 Doggonecat Hill C Schwartz Scott M 119 $25,000 FTL 20-1
8 8 Ruby's Magic Spell Bridgmohan J V Kelly Patrick J 119 $25,000 L 5-1

Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8), Pick 4 Races (6-9) Daily Double Wagers

Brian Blessing's Pick's 6-4-5

Lemon Tiger drops in for a tag off the shelf and may be sent off at a decent price, with Maragh taking over the mount. She shows a pair of solid breezes in preparation for this effort.

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#207014 - 07/15/10 07:16 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BEL 8th courtesy of John Pricci

Take Mor Chances on Dutrow’s Filly

An interesting secondary allowances-optional claiming feature, turf males sprinting seven furlongs and three of these have a good look at getting the money.

Gold Vendetta (7-2) is well suited by the conditions, is sharp and has worked well for this. The presence of Castellano is another plus.

Hot Money (5-2), a rapidly improving 4 year old gelding and is a true specialist, winning half of his six starts and two of his three tries at today’s trip.

Not only is he sharp, having won his latest, but is versatile enough to win on firm and yielding ground, a likely scenario today.

But the favorite, Mor Chances (2-1), seems just too quick for this group. Nicely positioned outside in a relatively short field, he’s won at this level previously, a three-time winner on this course and at the distance.

Rick Dutrow has given him a seven week freshening for his proper level return. He can win from well back, at he did last out, but also can lead a group throughout. Jose Lezcano takes the re-ride,

Taking Mor Chances to win at 8-5 or greater, an exacta box with Hot Money, adding Gold Vendetta to the trifecta mix second and third.

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#207015 - 07/15/10 07:36 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Value Plays courtesy of Rick Needham

FINGER LAKES
RACE #3: #3 LABEESPA RUBIA, a 10-1 BOMB, is the overall speed leader in this claiming field sprinting at, or about, today's distance of 5½ furlongs on the dirt.

PRESQUE ISLE DOWNS
RACE #2: The 6-1 shot, #1 JET FLAG, is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the "dirt."


NOTE: The longshot entries listed below have been "found" utilizing TrackMaster's fantastic new product Ultra Angles ... I have utilized this product to scan EVERY TRACK in North America for entries today meeting the following 3 criteria:

a. Odds are GREATER THAN 4-1
b. The entry must be the TOP POWER RATED entry in the field
c. The entry must also have the BEST SPEED in this field for today's distance and surface!
NOTE: Listed Post Times are given in the local time zone of the track.

Arlington Park - Race #9 - 4:50PM - #6 DANCING DEMONETTE 4/1
Belmont Park - Race #1 - 1:00PM - #5 EXCHANGE FUNDS 10/1
Belmont Park - Race #4 - 2:36PM - #5 LOVE OF LIFE 10/1

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#207016 - 07/15/10 08:03 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BELMONT RACE 6 courtesy of HorsePlayerNow

#6 Lemon Tiger (7-2) (turf only)

Our Eyes: Slow start, rank, unmanageable early and erratic stride, trailed far, far behind, lost contact with field, joined pack far turn, passed rivals inside while still green, moved outside and ran on to wire. - Brian Nadeau

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#207017 - 07/15/10 09:56 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BELMONT PARK courtesy of At The Races with Steve Byk

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Tricky little group of 6 in the opener, with Mott comebacker Phantom Rising returning off 476 day break, and all others except Citifiesta cutting back from turf routes..

Most Likely: #4 Hatheer 2-1
Next Best: #2 Citifiesta 5-1
Best Value: #5 Exchange Funds 10-1


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Juveniles coming out with more regularity now, and this group of 7 features the next 2 Bernardini babies to run (#3 Stay Thirsty and #5 Scoville). Stay Thirsty, a $500k 2yo in training buy by Mike Repole, is a half brother to Andromeda's Hero; #4 Punster, from Frank Alexander and Dogwood, is a Distorted Humor chestnut bred by Tom Van Meter out of his excellent race filly Victory U.S.A. (Victory Gallop-Fordyce by Cox's Ridge). A Bob Baffert trainee, Victory U.S.A. was a top juvenile in the outstanding crop of 2003 missies, winning the Mocassin, placing in the Frizette (Society Selection) and Del Mar Debutante (Halfbridled), and finishing third to Halfbridled and Ashado in the BC Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita; #7 Sovereign Default, the oldest baby in the bunch as a January foal, is bred to be fast early being by Northern Afleet out of the 10x winning sprinting terror She is Raging..

Most Likely: #4 Punster 7-2
Next Best: #7 Sovereign Default 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Stay Thirsty 2-1
Super Add: #5 Scoville 9-2


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

More interesting pedigrees in group of 3yo fillies with debuts from #1 Miss Vindictive, a half to Get Funky and Mayan King, and #2 Arena Elvira was a $210k OBS yearling by Stephen Got Even out of millionaire Two Item Limit who counted heroics in the Tempted and Desmoiselle at 2 and the Black-Eyed Susan and Comely at 3 among her 7 career victories. #3 Freedom Flag has tried unsuccessfully to win 4 times, but all her siblings have been largely disappointments considering the quality of dam Runup the Colors, the 1997 Alabama winner for Neil Howard..

Most Likely: #6 Ivybridge 1-1
Best Value: #1 Miss Vindictive 12-1
Next Best: #5 Wild Banshee 5-1


4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Delta Thunder 5-2
Next Best: #2 Richie Rules 12-1
Best Value: #4 Seis de Mayo 5-1
Super Add: #7 Slammin Lou 9-2


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Clear Faith 9-2
Next Best: #7 Bad Action 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Seniors Pride 5-2
Super Add: #1 Unbridled Heat 10-1


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-7
3: 1-2-5-6
4: 2-9
5: 5-7

3x4x2x2 = $48


6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 No Imagination 5-2
Best Value: #8 Ruby's Magic Spell 5-1
Next Best: #6 Lemon Tiger 7-2
Super Add: #4 Crystal Galopoff 10-1


7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Princess Maura 6-1
Next Best: #3 Linnea 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Tempest Storm 2-1
Super Add: #7 Talented Princess 5-2


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD, Super)

Not a lot of speed involved here, and wonder if Dominguez can't stay the trip on/near lead with OK for turf Brazen Kat? 12-1 can make up for fact that Duggan is 0 for 20 with dirt-turf moves..

Best Value: #5 Brazen Kat 12-1
Next Best: #3 Gold Vendetta 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Mor Chances 2-1
Super Add: #8 Hot Money 5-2


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)

Excellent betting race..

Best Value: #6 Luna Pegasus 8-1
Next Best: #2 W. W.'s Lady's Man 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Sea of Liquidity 2-1
Super Add: #7 Friendly Wager 6-1


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 5-8
7: 2-3-8
8: 3-5
9: 2-3-6-7

2x3x2x4 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

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#207018 - 07/15/10 10:01 AM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151


Arlington Park Pick 4 courtesy of Gus Alonso

R6 – Md 25k

#2 King Bee
#4 Courtesy Title
#6 Willie Prevail
#8 Follia

R7 – Md 25k

#7 Roman Invader
#6 Bluegrass Blonde
#10 Star Stuff
#8 Dramatic Finish

R8 – OC 40k / N2X

#6 Call Shot
#5 Cuban Missile
#3 Bergman
#1 Rector

Tri Key – 6 / 1 3 5

R9 – ILB MSW 29k

#9 Milestonemissile
#6 Dancing Demonette
#10 Vicky’s Bar
#5 Sister Sister

PK4 – 2 4 6 8 / 7 / 6 / 1 2 3 5 6 9 10 = $28

Good Racing Luck

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#207025 - 07/15/10 03:04 PM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Hollywood Park Race 6 courtesy of Deuce Bruce

HOLY FLAPPER was up to win sprinting and looks as though this longer trip
should suit her. KALANETTA was off very slowly and gets one more chance.
HEMERA is laid a short price and Rosario rides. Bet HOLY FLAPPER (WP),
Box the Exacta 2/7/3, Box the Trifecta 2/7/3/1, and Box the Superfecta
2/7/3/1 $24. (*Note: Alternates to replace any late scratches are #1 and
#4). HAVE A WINNING DAY AT THE TRACK TODAY!!!

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#207030 - 07/15/10 03:05 PM Re: Thursday Ponies [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
HOLLY 1st (Post time 1:00)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($8,000) | Purse: $13,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Don't Ya Lovett (NZ) Cedeno A Carava Jack 120 $8,000 L 10-1
2 2 Smooth and Savvy Quinonez A Periban Jorge 120 $8,000 L 10-1
3 3 Autocue (GB) Talamo J Hess R B Jr 122 $8,000 L 2-1
4 4 Film Fortune Gonzalez A Van Berg Jack C 117 5 $8,000 L 4-1
5 5 Premiere Flyer Valdez F S Kasparoff James M 120 $8,000 Blk-On L 3-1
6 6 Super Harmony Baze T C Knapp Steve 124 $8,000 L 5-2

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) $2 Double / $1 Pick 3 $1 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4) / $1 Place Pick All

Battagliaspicks 5-3-6

#5 Premiere Flyer- Dropped to this level last out and just missed after being bumped in the stretch. He adds blinkers and should score.

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