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#206525 - 07/04/10 12:39 AM 4TH OF JULY PONIES
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Arlington Park (4th) Tom Archdeacon, 4-1
(7th) Admissible, 6-1
Belmont Park (1st) Tulipmania, 7-2
(7th) My Honey Laurie, 9-2
Calder (3rd) Altamar, 5-1
(10th) Yes It's Dan, 5-1
Canterbury (2nd) Smoky Storm, 4-1
(7th) Wings of War, 5-1
Charles Town (1st) El Piston, 8-1
(5th) Hasta La Pasta, 8-1
Churchill Downs (7th) Affair to Remember, 10-1
(8th) Stern, 7-2
Colonial Downs (7th) Paniolo, 4-1
(10th) Come With Me, 8-1
Emerald Downs (4th) Certified Diamond, 3-1
(7th) Winnie the Stew, 4-1
Finger Lakes (6th) Im a Mosaic Rocker, 5-1
(9th) Haiduk, 7-2
Fort Erie (1st) Luv a Marine, 9-2
(2nd) Native Wisdom, 6-1
Hastings Park (4th) Organist, 7-2
(6th) Retrigger, 9-2
Hollywood Park (5th) Daylight Storm, 9-2
(8th) Kayce Ace, 3-1
Lone Star Park (1st) Macho Mama, 5-1
(7th) Charming Susie, 3-1
Louisiana Downs (4th) Time is Crucial, 7-2
(9th) New Age Girl, 7-2
Monmouth Park (8th) Footcandles, 6-1
(11th) Lone Cypress, 3-1
Northlands Park (2nd) Here Comes Ray Ray, 3-1
(5th) Festeem, 4-1
Philadelphia Park (3rd) Sumkin, 10-1
(8th) Lobo Del Norte, 8-1
Pleasanton (4th) I Am Thor, 5-1
(9th) Unusual Suspect, 9-2
River Downs (6th) Crescent Wind, 6-1
(8th) El Pollo Volando, 4-1
Woodbine (4th) Zounds, 6-1
(10th) Roan Inish, 9-2

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Stewards Inquiry

You have two choices when wagering on horses with 5 Dimes. You can get a Daily Rebate based upon the action you put into the racebook or you can get 10% added to your Win or Exotic bets. Personally I recommend you take the Daily Rebate which is paid out at 8AM the following race day directly into your account. In the long run you will see more money returned to you.

 

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#206526 - 07/04/10 12:41 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
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Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Courtsy of Mike Dempsey

Here is the opening race from Monmouth Park to get our day off to a good start:

MTH Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:50 ET)
#3 Sleepless Dixie 2/1
#4 System Ready 5/2
#7 Miss Dora 3/1
#6 Ima Wild Pussycat 4/1

Analysis: #3 Sleepless Dixie was a game second in her debut, beaten 3/4 of a length while 4 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. The third and fourth place finishers in the race came back to graduate in their next starts. The Breen barn is 30% winners with second timers. The filly is out of the stakes winner Dream About ($235K) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Sleepless Knight (2 for 4, $71K).

#4 System Ready is a $50K purchase making her debut for the Pletcher barn that is 18% winners with firsters. The filly is by More Than Ready (13% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Chief Seattle mare, her first foal to race. A couple of quick works on the morning tab.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Prioress G1 (5:17 ET)
#1 Bonnie Blue Flag 2/1
#3 Franny Freud 7/5
#4 Funny Feeling 8/1
#2 Champagne d'Oro 5/2

Analysis: #1 Bonnie Blue Flag was a much the best winner last out at Lone Star winning the Cinemine, her first start on conventional dirt. The effort was flattered when the third place finisher Joy's Paradise came back to win a non-conditioned allowance race. Of course, this is a Grade 1, but Baffert is usually live when he ships runners to NY, hitting at a 25% clip going back two years. The switch to dirt produced a career top by a wide margin and she looks capable of winning right back here.

#3 Franny Freud beat up on restricted NY breds last out in her turf debut, but she is actually better on dirt. She can even handle poly, taking the Beaumont (G2) three back at Keeneland. This gal fires every time out, landing in the exacta in 9 of her 10 career starts, two over the main track here. She will prove tough to beat here as the short priced favorite.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 9 The Jersey Shore G3 (4:52 ET)
#2 Discreetly Mine 5/2
#4 Christine Daae 4/1
#6 Safe Trip 3/1
#5 Cool Bullet 3/1

Analysis: #2 Discreetly Mine dueled for the early lead and could not go with D'Funnybone late, settling for the runner up spot in the Woody Stephens (G2). He ran better than I thought on the cut back to seven furlongs and this does not look as tough a spot. He looks as if he can handle the cut back to six furlongs.

#4 Christine Daae was rushed to vie for the early lead, was shuffled back at the 3/78's and finished up strongly, missing by a nose in the Red Cross. This filly is capable of better with a clean trip and fits well in this spot. If our top pick gets too much attention on the tote, this guy may offer good value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #3 Sky Fever 10/1
R2: #1 Team Plan / #1a Northern Warrior 10/1
R3: #3 Fleet Allaire 8/1
R3: #6 Always a Party 10/1
R5: #5 Soda Kaps 8/1
R7: #2 Victory Charm 8/1
R9: #4 Funny Feeling 8/1

Good luck today!

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#206527 - 07/04/10 12:43 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
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Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BEL 8th (4:44)

7 Furlongs (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $38,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Holy Blitzer Cohen D Rice Linda 116 L 5-2
1A 2 In Te Domine Garcia Alan Rice Linda 119 L 5-2
2 3 Flying Sappho Prado E S Rodriguez Rudy R 120 L 7-2
3 4 Lights Out Lisa Luzzi M J Contessa Gary C 116 L 12-1
4 5 Song for Pupcake Maragh R Schettino Dominick A 120 L 5-1
5 6 Roaring Ghost Velasquez C Brown Bruce R 120 L 12-1
6 7 Auric Girl Studart M Toscano John T Jr 120 L 15-1
7 8 Lisa Jean Dominguez R A Motion H Graham 123 L 9-2
8 9 Judicial Leader Desormeaux K J Sciacca Gary 120 L 15-1
9 10 Mystic City Hill C Ferraro M Anthony 119 L 8-1

A-Coupled: Holy Blitzer and In Te Domine

Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (8-10), Daily Double Wagers

Brian Blessing's Pick's 4-2-7

Song for Pupcake has a solid closing kick and there should be speed to run at in this seven furlong turf event. Maragh has been riding well.

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#206528 - 07/04/10 12:45 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
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Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
MTH 7th (3:50)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $80,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Straight No Chaser Ortiz F L Carvajal, Jr. Luis 115 L 20-1
2 2 Sky Pie Bravo J Thompson J Willard 120 L 6-1
3 3 Dream Waltz Figueroa O McBurney Patrick B 115 L 8-1
4 4 Goombada Guska Lezcano J Volk Scott 115 L 3-1
5 5 Discreet Interview Moya R F Frangella James Jr 110 10 L 15-1
6 6 Perky Juge Fragoso P Perkins Ben W Jr 115 L 12-1
7 7 Dead Money Cotto P L Jr Jeannont Diane 120 L 4-1
8 8 Irish Eddie K Trujillo E Aristone Philip T 120 L 10-1
9 9 Taperrific Lopez C C Cash Russell J 119 L 8-1
10 10 Midnight Chase Serpa A Orseno Joseph 115 5 L 20-1
11 11 D' Buck Vega A Aguiar Pedro J 120 L 30-1
12 12 Mi Cugat Lopez P Broome Edwin T 120 L 5-1
13 AE Agaricus Bravo J Thompson J Willard 120 L 20-1

Win, Place and Show Exacta, Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 7-8)/Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)

Battagliaspicks 2-7-12

#2 Sky Pie- comes off a maiden win then 3 straight good runs against open company. She finds an easier spot today and will be tough at a decent price.

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#206529 - 07/04/10 12:56 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
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Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
CDX 10th (5:26)

Firecracker H. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $175,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Driving Snow (GB) Lenclud F Miller Darrin 115 LA 20-1
2 2 Mine That Bird Borel C H Lukas D Wayne 122 LA 3-1
3 3 Attempted Humor Lanerie C J Pletcher Todd A 117 LA 8-1
4 4 Tizdejavu Castanon J L Fox Gregory 119 LA 4-1
5 5 Unbridle's Dream Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 115 LA 20-1
6 6 Tybalt Nakatani C S Stidham Michael 116 LA 15-1
7 7 Public Speaker Albarado R J McPeek Kenneth G 117 LA 8-1
8 8 Veiled Prophet Goncalves L R Arnold George R II 114 LA 30-1
9 9 Inca King Lebron V Maker Michael J 117 LA 6-1
10 10 Pop Tarrt Gonzalez S Jr Deegan Joseph C 114 L 50-1
11 11 Euroears Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 115 LA 6-1
12 12 Skipadate Solis A Romans Dale 114 LA 12-1
13 13 Wise River Torres F C Hanna Clark 118 LA 15-1
14 14 Orthodox Court J K Glenney John 114 L 20-1
15 AE Baryshnikov Stokes R A III Hancock Kerny B 113 LA 20-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta

Battagliaspicks 4-9-2

#4 Tizdejavu- loves this course winning 4 of 5 here and is the speed of the speed today. He is the best bet of the day.

#2 Mine that Bird- has zero grass breeding and it appears Lukas has forgotten how to train a horse winning only 3 races from 55 starters.

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#206530 - 07/04/10 01:04 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
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Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Courtesy of HorsePlayerNow

MONMOUTH RACE 2:
#3 Thorny (12-1) (4 stars)

Our Eyes: 5/14/10: Broke sharply, in tight heading into turn, checked sharply off heels (ironically off the heels of the same horse who got DQ'ed for sawing him off the time before), ran on, loomed, flattened. Just needs a fair trip to drop a bomb because he's still getting disrespected at the windows. UPDATE 5/26/10: Always involved through quick fractions, loomed, just could not get by. Always goes overlooked, figures another big price and tries hard. - Brian Spencer

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#206534 - 07/04/10 04:29 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
PRIORESS S. (G1), 9TH-BEL, $250,000, 3YO, F, 6F, 5:17 P.M. EDT, 7-4

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 BONNIE BLUE FLAG BAFFERT BOB GARCIA MARTIN 120
2 CHAMPAGNE D'ORO GUILLOT ERIC MENA M 120
3 FRANNY FREUD TERRANOVA JOHN P II GOMEZ G K 122
4 FUNNY FEELING MAKER MICHAEL J GARCIA A 120
5 STORMANDAPRAYER TONER JAMES J MARAGH RAJIV 116

With only four rivals lining up against her, CHAMPAGNE D'ORO (Medaglia d'Oro) should find no trouble in adding the $250,000 Prioress S. (G1) to her record. The Eric Guillot trainee will be running on the same Belmont Park dirt over which she captured her biggest win to date, the Acorn S. (G1) going one mile on June 5. The bay miss will be cutting back a bit in the six-furlong Prioress, but actually broke her maiden at that distance in February. Though her BRIS Speed ratings have yet to reach the century mark, they are enough to topple this field. Miguel Mena will be in the saddle for the first time.

Though BONNIE BLUE FLAG (Mineshaft) will be making her graded bow in this spot, it wouldn't be a surprise for her to succeed. The Bob Baffert charge brings a three-race win streak into this affair, having broken her maiden and captured an allowance on the synthetics in California. It wasn't until Baffert sent her to Lone Star Park for the Cinemine S. that the bay miss began showing her true colors, though. The three-year-old lass dominated that seven-furlong test by 6 1/2 lengths, earning a 102 Speed number, and will do her best to run away with this one as well. Regular rider Martin Garcia has the call.

FRANNY FREUD (Freud) also brings a three-race winning skein into the Prioress. The bay filly won the Beaumont S. (G2) on Keeneland's Polytrack, captured the Park Avenue division of the New York Stallion S., then wired a field of colts and fillies in the grassy New York Stallion S. last out by six lengths. The John Terranova runner garnered 101 Speed ratings for her last two main track triumphs, and will be looking to continue her winning ways here. Garrett Gomez, aboard for those three scores, has piloting duties.

FUNNY FEELING (Distorted Humor) and STORMANDAPRAYER (Songandaprayer) don't look capable for the win, but could still add a Grade 1 placing to their records. The latter filly just broke her maiden over the track while going the distance last out, while Funny Feeling scored a 2 1/4-length victory in the Just Smashing S. at Monmouth Park on May 31. They'll each earn a nice check regardless of where they finish.

1st-CHAMPAGNE D'ORO
2nd-BONNIE BLUE FLAG
3rd-FRANNY FREUD
_________________________
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#206535 - 07/04/10 04:30 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
JERSEY SHORE S. (G3), 9TH-MTH, $200,000, 3YO, 6F, 4:52 P.M. EDT, 7-4

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 OUT OF RESPECT VOLK SCOTT LOPEZ PASCACIO 119
2 DISCREETLY MINE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 123
3 PARTYALLNIGHTLONG BROOME E THOMAS MARQUEZ C H JR 119
4 CHRISTINE DAAE BIANCONE PATRICK L BRAVO J 112
5 COOL BULLET MARGOLIS STEPHEN R HERNANDEZ B J J 121
6 SAFE TRIP KENNEALLY EDDIE LEZCANO JOSE 117

DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) is the horse to beat in the $200,000 Jersey Shore S. (G3) at Monmouth Park, but we'll pick against him on the cutback to six furlongs. COOL BULLET (Red Bullet) is three for three at the distance, including a two-length score in the Rumson S. over the track, and his BRIS Speed ratings compare favorably to the likely favorite. The Steve Margolis runner, who shows two works in the 28-day interim since his last appearance, will be making his third start off a freshening on Sunday and should sit a perfect stalking trip behind a wicked early pace. He rates top billing.

OUT OF RESPECT (Read the Footnotes) is the speed of the speed and will have to be caught from the rail. The New York-bred gelding is facing an imposing class check, but we like the way he captured a tough allowance over the track last time, netting a 104 BRIS Speed rating. The improving sprinter is an upset candidate for trainer Scott Volk.

Discreetly Mine dueled for the lead before weakening to second in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens (G2) last time, but he'll probably revert to stalking tactics here with John Velazquez. The Todd Pletcher trainee could prove too tough with his class edge, but the Grade 2 winner is unplaced in two starts at six furlongs and will be toting top weight of 123 pounds. He looks vulnerable to us.

The filly CHRISTINE DAAE (Giant's Causeway) looms as a top three player with her best. The chestnut looked like a star in the making at Gulfstream Park this winter, following an 8 3/4-length maiden score with an impressive 2 3/4-length allowance decision, but faltered at 6-5 when stepping up in the Bonnie Miss (G2). After spending about 2 1/2 months on the sidelines, the Patrick Biancone pupil returned with a nose second in the June 5 Red Cross S. over track/trip. She's worked well since then and is eligible to keep improving, but this looks like a questionable placement against males (Sunday's Prioress [G1] at Belmont is at six furlongs). We still respect her chances for a minor award.

SAFE TRIP (Tale of the Cat) will make his stakes bow off two sharp wins at Churchill Downs, registering a pair of 96 Speed ratings, and merits respect for the exotics. The Eddie Kenneally trainee is very quick and should be involved early under Jose Lezcano. We'll have to let the intriguing colt beat us on the class hike, but wouldn't discourage using him in the exotics.

State-bred PARTYALLNIGHTLONG (Put It Back) appears unlikely in his first start against open rivals.

1st-COOL BULLET
2nd-OUT OF RESPECT
3rd-DISCREETLY MINE
_________________________
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#206536 - 07/04/10 04:31 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
AMERICAN H. (G2), 7TH-HOL, $150,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 4:05 P.M. PDT, 7-4

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 RIVIERA COCKTAIL DRYSDALE NEIL BAZE T C 115
2 COMPARI JONES MARTIN F TALAMO JOSEPH 119
3 HYADES CECIL B D A ESPINOZA V 114
4 GLOWING PRAISE (GB) HARTY EOIN FLORES D R 115
5 GLOBAL HUNTER (ARG) AVILA A C BLANC B 118
6 QUINDICI MAN LEWIS CRAIG A SANTIAGO REYES 114
7 TEMPLE CITY GAINES CARLA QUINONEZ ALONSO 113
8 RED DOOR DRIVE BAFFERT BOB PEDROZA M A 114
9 METEORE MANDELLA RICHARD E BEJARANO R 115
10 OIL MAN (IRE) SADLER JOHN W ROSARIO JOEL 115

Sunday's $150,000 American H. (G2) drew a field of 10, including Arcadia H. (G2) winner COMPARI (Redattore [Brz]), who appears capable of controlling the pace from post 2. Seventh following a tough trip from the far outside post in the Shoemaker Mile (G1), Compari appears capable of landing the nine-furlong trip if he starts in this spot. His connections could scratch him in favor of the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), but this is a much better fit for the middle-distance specialist. A victor in six-of-eight career starts, the four-year-old gelding can regain his winning ways in the American.

RIVIERA COCKTAIL (Giant's Causeway) will enter on the upswing for Neil Drysdale, winning his last two starts over allowance competition, but the late runner could find himself at the mercy of a slow pace in this spot. The four-year-old doesn't own much tactical speed, but we're encouraged by his sharp six-furlong work last Sunday and give the San Marcos S. (G2) third-placer a chance at an upset beneath Tyler Baze. We'll tab him for runner-up honors.

HYADES (Aldebaran) offered a solid run for second in the Charles Whittingham Memorial H. (G1) last time. He captured his U.S. bow at the 1 1/8-mile distance at Santa Anita and has turned in a couple of respectable performances over Hollywood Park's sod for Ben Cecil. His BRIS numbers are first-rate in this spot, but the four-year-old colt can be a bit one-paced and has disappointed supporters at short odds on multiple occasions. We'll use him on the bottom of the top three.

TEMPLE CITY (Dynaformer) is training well for Carla Gaines and merits serious consideration for the exotics. He returned from a lengthy layoff with a solid effort last time and is eligible to improve off the tightener, but we still have some class concerns with the five-year-old. The Kentucky-bred is a winner over the course and figures to show some speed from post 7, so we'll use him on the bottom of some exotics.

La Jolla H. (G2) winner METEORE (Pulpit) is making his second start back this season for Richard Mandella, but he's run better over a little less ground and we don't like his late-running style here. He does have the potential for some improvement, however, so we can't dismiss his chances completely. OIL MAN (Ire) (Pyrus) has performed admirably in two starts over the course (2-1-1-0), but he drew a tough post (10) and doesn't look very sharp presently.

GLOBAL HUNTER (Arg) (Jade Hunter) probably needed his last start off the layoff, but we'll look for more from him at Del Mar where he always seems to thrive. GLOWING PRAISE (GB) (Fantastic Light) hasn't shown enough in four U.S. starts for us to recommend his chances. RED DOOR DRIVE (Sky Mesa) and QUINDICI MAN (Came Home) don't look fast enough to challenge.

1st-COMPARI
2nd-RIVIERA COCKTAIL
3rd-HYADES
_________________________
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#206537 - 07/04/10 04:31 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: FREAK]
FREAK Online   content
2007 Bad Man Champion

Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
CHICAGO H. (G3), 8TH-AP, $100,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 7F, 4:37 P.M. CDT, 7-4

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 DIAMOND SONG STEWART DALLAS EMIGH C A 113
2 MINEWANDER VANCE DAVID R BAZE M C 115
3 SECRET KIN STIDHAM MICHAEL BAIRD E T 115
4 INFORMED DECISION SHEPPARD JONATHAN E LEPAROUX JULIEN 124
5 NEVER RETREAT BLOCK CHRIS ALVARADO JUNIOR 115
6 RINTERVAL (IRE) REED ERIC R FELIX J E 115
7 LOOKALIKE WERNER RONNY GRAHAM J 114
8 HOOH WHY REAVIS MICHAEL L SELLERS S J 118

Champion female sprinter INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos) will try to get back to her winning ways when going for a title defense in Sunday's $100,000 Chicago H. (G3) at Arlington. The Jonathon Sheppard-trained mare captured her first seven starts on synthetic tracks, including the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), before finishing third in her seasonal bow, the Madison S. (G1) at Keeneland. She exits a fast-closing third in the Humana Distaff S. (G1), netting a commendable 99 BRIS Speed rating for her effort, and hasn't run poorly in either effort this season. The five-year-old mare lays over these rivals in terms of class and won this event in wire-to-wire fashion last year. She'll be forwardly placed on Sunday beneath regular rider Julien Leparoux.

SECRET KIN (Sea of Secrets) exits a nice 1 1/4-length score over state-breds rivals in the Isaac Murphy H. and performs well over Arlington's Polytrack, recording a 10-4-3-1 career line. The Michael Stidham-trained mare appears to be in top form, earning respectable BRIS numbers in her last three outings, and offer an opportunity for some value in the bottom of the exacta at 10-1 on the morning line.

NEVER RETREAT (Smart Strike) ranks second in BRIS Prime Power (135.5) to Informed Decision and rolled to a good-looking victory over allowance/optional rivals last time when making her Polytrack debut for Chris Block. The five-year-old will look to keep that momentum going with another fast finish on Sunday, but there doesn't appear to be much pace in the field.

Grade 1 heroine HOOH WHY (Cloud Hopping) has never finished off-the-board in three starts over the track (1-1-1), but she exits a disappointing sixth in the Satin and Lace S. at Presque Isle Downs. The chestnut could show speed from the start under Shane Sellers and hold for a minor award, but the four-year-old isn't going well enough presently for us to recommend her chances.

RINTERVAL (Ire) (Desert Prince [Ire]) blossomed on Turfway's Polytrack over the winter, winning a stakes race and placing in two others, but she could find this company too difficult. LOOKALIKE (Dynaformer), MINEWANDER (Mineshaft) and DIAMOND SONG (Unbridled's Song) don't look fast enough to challenge.

1st-INFORMED DECISION
2nd-SECRET KIN
3rd-NEVER RETREAT
_________________________
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#206548 - 07/04/10 09:39 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: FREAK]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
BELMONT Courtesy of Safestwager

Doubles, Pick 3's, Pick 4:
Race 7) 1/4/7
Race 8) 1/7 (If a scratch, add #4)
Race 9) 1/3/4 (If a scratch, add #2)
Race 10) 1/2/5/10 (If a scratch, condense)

Race 7) 1 1/16th Miles (Inner Turf) Md Sp Wt

#4 Trust Fund Kid*
The charted line is wrong from last race. This filly was not outrun.
She got surprised when the gate opened, and got out last. She made up
6 lengths on the leaders, and although finishing 7th, was in a
chorus line vying for 3rd. Hopefully she won't be as green today
in her 2nd lifetime start. She has superior breeding for distance and grass.

Safer Bet:
a) #4 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 1/4/7
c) Trifecta Box: 1/4/7
d) Trifecta: 4 with 1/7 with 1/7

Race 8) 7 Furlongs (Turf) Alw 38,000N1X

#7 Lisa Jean* Morning line 9-2
This was an expensive auction purchase for a New York bred.
As an owner, I would be very surprised if a jockey opted off one
of my horses after getting a winning purse check. Unless we're dealing
with a graded stake, riders will usually keep some kind of an allegiance
for winning connections. That's not the case today.
Top Jock.. R Dominguez opted off 2 other prior winners to take this one.
Although this filly takes the big move from Md Sp Weights, she looks
like a great play after winning last, while coming from the back and
passing a large field.

Safer Bet:
a) #7 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 7 with 1/2/4 with 1/2/4

Race 9) 6 Furlongs G1 Prioress

#1 Bonnie Blue Flag*
Her last was visually impressive. When asked, she found a gear
the others just didn't have. Top trainer, Baffert, had other options
for this filly, but decided she has enough class to go with the better ones.

Safer Bet:
a) #1 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 1/3
c) Trifecta: 1/3 with 1/3 with 2/4


Race 10) 6 Furlongs Md Sp Wt

#5 Gracilia*
There's a common misconception that first time lasix is a great bet.
It isn't. I prefer 2nd out for 2 reasons.
1) Trainers often need to monitor how much of this drug is given.
Too much can slow a horse down... not enough can have little effect.
2) It often takes a horse a start or two to either build up more stamina,
or realize that it can extend without getting blood or fluid in it's lungs.
Anyway......
Gracilia got a nice tightener in last, and although coming in 2nd,
separated herself from the rest of the field.
This will be her 2nd start on lasix from a trainer (Levine) who
does well with this move.

Safer Bet:
a) #5 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
d) Trifecta: 5 with 1/2/4/10/11 with 1/2/4/10/11


Edited by Joeaveragefan (07/04/10 09:39 AM)

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#206557 - 07/04/10 10:42 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Cali Racing courtesy of Price Horse Central

Hollywood Park

Race 1: Pass race in which short priced Stropy (3) for warming Canani and Wada Falls (5) for Mullins look best but no value. Jt combos 3,4

Race 2: Speaking of Canani, #2 Poetic License offers some value here off the ML of 10/1. Want to watch tote a bit to see if there is some action but horse showed a bit of contending speed last out going long and shortens today to an elongated sprint. Money rider up and warming barn so I’m looking for about 6/1. On the other hand, if it’s dead on the board (15/1 or more) I’ll probably pass. JT combos 2, 5, 7

Race 3: If they let Capt. Sparrow (6) go off at 4/1 or better, I have some interest in this one for Carava first off the claim with Rosario up. Have trouble wrapping my arms around Craigmyle barn but keeping mind open as there may be potential there. JT combos 1, 6.

Race 4: Pass wide open race in which it appears that 5 are legit. Of those, Real Obvious (5) goes second time for the Mullins barn on the ship and should not be ignored at 9/2 on ML if that price is available. Jt combos 1, 4, 5

Race 5: Pass race in which CF horse Grace Upon Grace (3) looks tough for Solis. JT combos 2, 3, 4, 6.

Race 6: Like to take small shots with CF horses going off at a price and that’s the case here with Star Nicholas (11). Will accept 8/1 off ML of 12 on this closer that should have some pace to chase for Eurton. JT combos 1, 4, 5, 6, 11

Race 7: Pass race in which all seem well intended and a number have a big shot to win. Of all the moves here, interesting that Avila puts Blanc on Global Hunter (5) who should be included on tix. JT combos 2, 5, 8, 9, 10

Race 8: Pass race in which there is a good chance that CF horse, Hard Way Ten (6) might get loose on the lead and not look back. JT combos 2, 6.

Race 9: Pass contentious guessing game baby race in which there are a number of win candidates. Of those, would put D’pendable (2) on top for Baffert off ML of 5/1. JT combos 2, 7, 8

Pleasanton

Race 1: Mules

Race 2: Arabians

Race 3: Pass race in which only the obvious short priced horses jump out in a pretty slow field. No JT combos.

Race 4: When Molinaro shows up, I listen. McMurtry (1) get Schvaneveldt today off the ML of 6/1. I’ll accept a bit less for this fine trainer who doesn’t start too many. THis one had its tightener and looks live today. Old Ed (2) goes first off the claim for Morey and is a likely short priced exotic candidate. JT combos 3, 4, 6

Race 5: Pass very contentious race in which many, too numerous to even mention, have a shot. If forced to make a pick, I would close my eyes and probably point to Easter High (6) for new hero Paldanius. JT combos 1, 2, 6, 9.

Race 6: Probable pass contentious MSW in which there are no monsters. Can think of worse longshot stabs than #10 Really Surprised who ran pretty well off the layoff in a show of speed. If moves forward, then can take this one down at 20/1 on the ML. Let price be the guide here. JT combos 2, 4, 8.

Race 7: Pass race in which CF horse Magnificent Blend (7) is CF but had tough race off the layoff and could regress. At 5/2, not worth a wager but also hard to bet against Martin. JT combos 4, 7.

Race 8: Pass race in which there are a few speed types and a few closers so pace scenario is muddy. Hot Chaco (7) is CF and should be looked at but is just one of a number more than capable of winning this. JT combos 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Race 9: Pass tough stake race with a number of options. Warren’s Pepe (3), Canani shipper, wants lead but will be challenged at short price. If pace meltdown occurs, look to Unusual Suspect (4), for Abrams and the laying very low Ariel Smith, to make a move late as has been running against much better than these albeit on the lawn. Jt combos 3, 6, 7,8.

Race 10: Would want more than 9/2 ML to play, but Saw Perfection (6) for Josephson looks like he’s in the right spot after the maiden turf win. JT combos 6, 7

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#206559 - 07/04/10 11:13 AM Re: 4TH OF JULY PONIES [Re: Joeaveragefan]
Joeaveragefan Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/08
Posts: 1151
Churchill Courtesy of George Fahey

Scratches - Race 2 - #3, #6, Race 6 - #13, #14, #15 , Race 8 - #13, Race 9 - #8, Race 10 - #6

Track Conditions - Dirt - Fast Turf - Firm they’re running on the hedge today

Weather - Partly Sunny, High 93 F

Race 1 - This is one of the best two year old races of the entire meet. There’s some real speed in this sprint. There are five runners in here with bullet breezes. Three of them are entered back after competing in the same race 25 days ago. The colt who ran second by a neck that day gets the nod after finishing against the winner that day. Corey Nakatani rides for Steve Margolis and if he can catch Borel, he’s a winner. My pick!

9 - 1 - KY, Storm In The Lake, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 3/5/9 $50

Race 3 - Team Borel gets one last chance to shine at Churchill. This gray colt is moving up a notch to Optional Claiming $100K at 7 furlongs. He’s won at this distance in last here with a Beyer Speed of at least ten points higher than anything in here on the Form’s page(last ten starts). Should get a ground saving ride from BoRail on the front end. My pick!

3 - 3 - KY. Spooky’s Ready, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 2/3/4 $50

Race 6 - Pat Byrne is giving this two year old filly her second start of her career. In last she was bested and held on for second. Today she should get a ground saving trip in that the two inside of her don’t show any morning speed in their works and she has that rail riding leading jock Cecil somebody piloting her. Look for a better effort today if nothing else in here has been hiding something from the clockers. My pick!

3 - 6 - KY, Maya’s Mystery, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 3/9/10 $50

Race 11 - The last race of the meet should end like the first one back in April with a Calvin Borel victory. Dale Romans is dropping this second time starter to where she belongs. She’s spotted to win. My pick!

11 - 11 - KY, Lifelong, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 2/8/11


Edited by Joeaveragefan (07/04/10 11:15 AM)

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