Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Super Saturday of Racing

Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

Here is the opening race from Monmouth Park to get our day off to a good start:

MTH Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:50 ET)
#2 Ten Bells 4/1
#9 Metrology 3/1
#1 Shraded Edge 7/2
#4 Showme Zealous 6/1

Analysis: #2 Ten Bells returns off a two month break and makes his first start for the Orseno barn, who took this guy out of a runner up finish for $25K last out. The fourth place finisher in the race was Evil Powder, who came back to graduate for $25K in his next start. Two back our top pick ran second in a race that produced a pair of next out winners along with four runners that ran second in their next starts. The gelding earned a speed fig in that effort that is good enough to win in this spot.

#9 Metrology drops in for a tag and tries conventional dirt for the first time here for the Hess barn. The gelding was a distant fourth last out at Keeneland over the poly versus tougher. The barn is 3 for 6 (with a +ROI) moving runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. The gelding is out of the stakes winner Victory Thrill (4 for 9, $63K).

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 1,2,4,9
TRI: 2,9 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2,4,9,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 Vagrancy Hcp G2 (5:17 ET)
#1 Rightly So 5/1
#3 Tar Heel Mom 5/2
#2 Hour Glass 7/2
#7 Saarlight 9/2

Analysis: #1 Rightly So steps out of NY bred company for the first time here, and generally I don't like to back NY breds in graded stakes company. However, this filly has some talent, and has landed in the exacta in 7 of her 8 career starts. Last out she was beaten just a nose in the Indistinctly by Sapphire Sky, who came back to beat a solid group of conditioned optional claimers outside the state bred ranks. She is perfect in two trips over the main track, and if Tony D. sees fit to try her here in Grade 2 company, I'm thinking she is ready to fire a big one here.

#3 Tar Heel Mom went gate to wire to win the Distaff (G2) in her last start over a muddy track, her fourth win over off going in 8 starts. She has run well on fast tracks as well, popping a 100 Beyer three back at Gulfstream Park in a runner up finish in the Hurricane Bertie (G3). She owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks like she will be tough to handle here, but the price may end up on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,4,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 John J. Reilly Hcp (5:20 ET)
#3 Together Indy 9/2
#9 Lucky James 5/1
#10 Joey P. 7/2
#6 Unwritten 6/1

Analysis: #3 Together Indy returns to conventional dirt for the first time since the colt beat New Jersey bred Alw-1 company here last summer. His last two came over polytrack and the two races before that were on grass. The colt won the Commonwealth (G2) at Keeneland back in April over the fake stuff, but his two top career figs were his two wins over the Monmouth Park surface. The colt will appreciate the class drop from graded company back in here facing state breds.

#9 Lucky James is one of nine in the field that is making his 2010 debut, making this a tough race to handicap. The gelding was last seen winning the Eillo Stakes at the Big M last October. The gelding capped off ’09 by winning four of his last five starts, running into a tough trip in the lone loss during that run. The barn is showing a 1 for 10 mark with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 3,6,9,10
TRI: 3,9 / 3,6,9,10 / 1,3,6,9,10,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #4 Pegasus Tommy D. 12/1
R1: #6 Self Made Man 8/1
R3: #3 Casing Gold 20/1
R3: #8 Ommadon’s Thunder 12/1
R5: #7 Charmed 8/1
R5: #3 Whispered 15/1
R6: #6 Pretty Cozzy 10/1
R10: #9 Holy Ego 10/1
R10: #7 It’s the Big Cat 10/1

Good luck today!

BEL 5th (3:08)

7 Furlongs (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Maiden Claiming ($60,000 - $50,000) | Purse: $32,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 10 Curlina Coa E M Hough Stanley M 120 $50,000 FTL 6-1
1A AE Pretty B Velasquez C Hough Stanley M 122 $60,000 L 6-1
2 1 Karen Ann Desormeaux K J Hubley Mark 122 $60,000 L 6-1
3 2 Whispered Lezcano J Hennig Mark 120 $50,000 L 15-1
4 3 Splitting Heirs Cohen D Giglio, Jr. D 122 $60,000 L 7-2
5 4 Gabby's Wild Cat Garcia Alan DeRosa Alexander 122 $60,000 L 15-1
6 5 Erin Erin Santiago V Sacco Richard W 120 $50,000 L 8-1
7 6 Charmed (ARG) Velazquez J R Donk David 122 $60,000 L 8-1
8 7 Olive Eye Studart M Lostritto Joseph A 122 $60,000 L 10-1
9 8 Smart Farming Velasquez C Rice Linda 122 $60,000 L 3-1
10 9 Be Before Castellano J J Hills Timothy A 122 $60,000 L 15-1
11 MTO Saint Jen Velazquez J R Terranova, II John P 122 $60,000 L 8-1

A-Coupled: Curlina and Pretty B

Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (5-7), Pick 6 Races (5-10), Daily Double Wagers

Brian Blessing's Pick's 9-5-8

Smart Farming was charging late in a turf route event at Gulfstream Park in mid April. The rally fell just short. Today she turns back in distance and with a clean trip will be very tough to deny.

BEL 8th from Brooklyn Jack

RACE 8 “Turf Only”

1st #6 – SEATTLE MISSION
2nd #3 – QUIET ON THE TEE
3rd #4 – MONASTIR
Upset #2 – COPS FEVER

Exacta Key: 6/3-4-2; Exacta Part Wheel: 3-4-2/6
Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Box: 2-3-4-6
Trifecta/Superfecta Key: 6/2-3-4

CD 5th (2:53)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Starter Allowance | Purse: $25,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Ninth Client Lenclud F Compton Greg 116 5 L 7-2
2 2 Lake Merritt Canchano A Boggess Lawrence E 121 L 30-1
3 3 Brother Ron Goncalves L R Hayes Michael S 121 LA 20-1
4 4 Rezif Lebron V Jacobson Matthew 121 L 4-1
5 5 Pistol Pete Afleet Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 121 LA 5-2
6 6 Boulder Tiger Farina T Bradley William 121 LA 10-1
7 7 Rock Hard Mena M Barnett Bobby C 114 LA 3-1
8 8 Hooched Express Melancon L Hedges Tony 121 LA 15-1
9 9 Tourismo Rossi O Wirth Kenneth B 114 7 L 10-1
10 MTO Poni Colada Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 123 LA 2-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)

Battagliaspicks 1-5-4

#1 Ninth Client- Won back to back races at OP in front running style. He was claimed in his first race here for 25k. He has the inside, is the only early speed and should never look back.

Churchill courtesy of George Fahey

Co-featured Dogwood and Aristides for females and open in the later headlines today’s card. Twenty-first day of the meet. Let’s start the Holiday weekend off right. So far this meet we’ve selected ninety-three races, picking only one horse in each one, and have had thirty-three winners. That figures out to be .34 winning percentage. Realize the fields have been rather short and I’ve been selecting the races I feel good about. We’re still cashing tickets though.

Scratches Race 2 —-2, #5, Race 11 - #4

Race 1 Tom Amoss has this guy in with Calvin aboard. Amoss is the best when it comes to this class claimer.

6 - 1 - KY, Cool Hero, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 3/4/6 $50

Race 4 - We miss the real Backside Blackie (Huffman). Calvin’s up for Tim Glyshaw and they’ve had some success together.

5 - 4 - KY, Backside Blackie, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 2/4/5 $50

Race 8 - When a runner keeps putting up triple Beyers (those of 100 or more) it makes him very difficult to handle. Bret Calhoun has one here with Miguel Mena up. It’s a tough spot but I think they’re up to it.

2 - 8 - KY, Chief of Affairs, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 1/2/5 $50

Race 9 - Ken McPeek has Fabio Arguello up in this one mile turf test. They’re two of my favorite guys so I’m taking them in this one.

6 - 9 - KY, Sparky’s Dream, $10 WP, $5 Exacta Box 2/6/8 $50

GAMELY S. (G1), 9TH-HOL, $250,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/8MT, 5:05 P.M. PDT, 5-29

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 GOTTA HAVE HER SAHADI JENINE BAZE T C 119
2 MEDAGLIA D'AMOUR CECIL B D A ROSARIO JOEL 117
3 FOREVER TOGETHER SHEPPARD JONATHAN E MARAGH RAJIV 123
4 TUSCAN EVENING (IRE) HOLLENDORFER JERRY BEJARANO R 123
5 WELL MONIED ZUCKER HOWARD L SMITH M E 119
6 GENERAL CONSENSUS GALLAGHER PATRICK SOLIS A 117
7 PRINCESS HAYA O'CALLAHAN CARL TALAMO JOSEPH 123
8 CAT BY THE TALE DRYSDALE NEIL GARCIA MARTIN 119

A sensational field of eight will travel nine furlongs on the Hollywood Park turf in Saturday's $250,000 Gamely S. (G1), and champion FOREVER TOGETHER (Belong to Me) looks to return to the winner's circle following a four-race losing skid for Jonathan Sheppard. A fine second in the Jenny Wiley S. (G2) last time, the superb mare has never missed the board in her lifetime on the grass and should love the expected firm turf in Inglewood, California. While many say she may have lost a step, we don't believe that is the case. She equaled a career-best 104 BRIS Speed rating last time, as well as earning a 106 BRIS Late Pace rating, and we expect to see a display of her immense class in here. Rajiv Maragh deputizes for Julien Leparoux.

Multiple Grade 2 sensation TUSCAN EVENING (Ire) (Oasis Dream [GB]) has dominated California grass racing for Jerry Hollendorfer this winter/spring and seems very deserving of a Grade 1 win. The bay has won 10 of 14, including four in succession, and sports a smart 4-3-1-0 mark over this turf. It's not easy going against the bay, but only a champion gets top billing over this classy mare.

CAT BY THE TALE (Tale of the Cat) has been a very consistent player for trainer Neil Drysdale, finishing in the top three in nine of her last 10 outings, the last six in graded company. The tactical chestnut might get first run on our top pick under Martin Garcia, but we can't see her holding that one off in the lane.

Rising star MEDAGLIA D'AMOUR (Medaglia d'Oro) made good in her stakes debut when coming home a fairly easy winner of the Wilshire H. (G3) most recently for conditioner Ben Cecil. The bargain yearling purchase is perfect on the lawn, winning three races with relative ease, and she smoked a bullet half-mile in advance of this. We'll toss the dangerous four-year-old in our exotics.

Grade 2 heroine GOTTA HAVE HER (Royal Academy) has proven herself as a high quality sprinter/miler on the West Coast, but the six-year-old is being asked to do a lot in dealing with this superb field. Trained by Janine Sahadi, the mare is well drawn on the rail and loves Hollywood, but we think third is the best she can do if the top ones show up. Dual Grade 1-placed WELL MONIED (Maria's Mon) had a nice comebacker in an allowance tally for conditioner Howard Zucker and now must face two of the top turf distaffers in the country in her second try of the season. The impressive gray has endured great success over this lawn but could need a little more fitness before taking on the top pair.

Canadian S. (Can-G2) upsetter PRINCESS HAYA (Street Cry [Ire]) adds blinkers for this one coming off a seventh-place finish in the Wilshire last out for Carl O’ Callahan. The bay mare ranks eighth in BRIS Prime Power (151.2) and earned a lifetime-best 94 Speed figure last out. We'll look elsewhere. Santa Barbara H. (G2) runner-up GENERAL CONSENSUS (Giant's Causeway) is improving for trainer Paddy Gallagher but still looks to be a cut below the better ones in here.

1st-FOREVER TOGETHER
2nd-TUSCAN EVENING (Ire)
3rd-CAT BY THE TALE

VAGRANCY H.na S. (G2) heroine MALIBU PRAYER (Malibu Moon) is peaking for Pletcher and is another who makes a ton of sense in this affair. The Virginia-bred ran a career best when romping in a stakes race over this oval two prior and should be forwardly placed throughout under John Velazquez.

SAARLIGHT (Saarland) has been very consistent in her career for conditioner Kiaran McLaughlin and had a nice prep over this strip in readying for this affair. The Kentucky-bred has very good tactical speed and a fine outside draw and even though we're not thrilled that the filly lost her regular pilot, we consider her a serious top three threat with Eibar Coa. Top New York-bred RIGHTLY SO (Read the Footnotes) has never finished worse than third in her career but will be facing open foes for the initial time for conditioner Anthony Dutrow. The dark bay filly netted a 103 BRIS Speed rating last time and is a model of consistency, so can't be dismissed for a minor award against this well-matched cast.

Multiple stakes vixen HOLD THAT PROSPECT (Hold That Tiger), who is cross-entered to Saturday's My Juliet S. at Philadelphia Park, has had some success here but seems better suited to the winter circuit in New York for conditioner Gary Gullo. Multiple stakes winner LADY ALEXANDER (Exchange Rate) seems more likely at middle distances and could be exposed against some fast ladies in this endeavor.

1st-HOUR GLASS
2nd-TAR HEEL MOM
3rd-MALIBU PRAYER

ARLINGTON MATRON H.na Brew) scored in last season's Arlington Oaks, but could do better than fourth behind Home's the Best last out. CELTIC PRINCESS (Brz) (Public Purse) just missed when second by a neck while making her U.S. debut in December, but hasn't been close in four starts since. We can't recommend. HARK (Street Cry [Ire]) owns lower numbers than others in here and appears out of her class.

SOUPER MISS (Alphabet Soup) had minor success when opening her career on Arlington's Polytrack, continued that trend when trying turf, but blossomed into a real competitor when finally given her shot on a conventional dirt surface in her past three. She captured all three starts by a combined 12 1/2 lengths and we can't see her suddenly developing a liking for the Polytrack after finding a surface she really likes.

1st-FLOATING HEART
2nd-SWEET AND FLAWLESS
3rd-HOME'S THE BEST

HANSHIN CUP H. (G3), 9TH-AP, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 5:14 P.M. CDT, 5-29

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MCLARD LIVESAY CHARLIE FELIX J E 111
2 MAD FLATTER THORNBURY JEFF GEROUX FLORENT 116
3 COUNTRY FLAVOR GEIER GREGORY K KARLSSON INEZ 116
4 VICTORY NOTION TALLEY JEFF ALVARADO JUNIOR 116
5 BROTHERS NICHOLAS ROUSSEL LOUIS J III PEREZ E E 116
6 RECAPTURETHEGLORY ROUSSEL LOUIS J III PEREZ E E 116
7 GRAN ESTRENO (ARG) STIDHAM MICHAEL BAIRD E T 116
8 TYBALT STIDHAM MICHAEL BAZE M C 116
9 WILDEYDSOUTHERNBOY ROBERTSON HUGH BERRY M C 116

Nine runners will square off over a one-turn mile in Saturday's $100,000 Hanshin Cup H. (G3) at Arlington Park and a solid pace appears likely. WILDEYDSOUTHERNBOY (Double Honor) is arguably the strongest closer in the line-up, registering century-topping BRIS Late Pace ratings in all three starts this season and a 105 for his 2 3/4-length score in the Zen S. at Arlington 12 months ago, and is our pick for a mild upset. The Hugh Robertson-trained gelding loves the Polytrack, registering a six-for-seven mark locally, and appears set for a top showing in his return to Arlington Heights, Illinois. The state-bred has some class and distance concerns, but this is far from a difficult spot and he is one-for-one at eight furlongs. We'll look for him to run past his rivals in the stretch.

GRAN ESTRENO (Arg) (Lucky Roberto) captured last year's Washington Park H. (G3) at Arlington and exits a four-length romp over the track in a May 6 allowance/optional event. Both wins came in wire-to-wire fashion, but the front runner has won from just off the pace before and will likely revert to stalking tactics with plenty of speed to his inside from post 7. Given his affinity for the oval and back class, Gran Estreno is a logical win candidate in this spot at short odds, but we still feel he may be a little more effective at two turns. We'll tab the likely favorite for second.

TYBALT (Storm Cat) owns back class, finishing a neck second in the 2009 Oak Tree Mile (G2), but he's been plagued by physical issues that forced him to race sparingly over the last two seasons. The Michael Stidham trainee exits a good-looking score at Fair Grounds, but he's been sidelined for 91 days since then. He does appear to be training well for his return and we considered tabbing him for the win off the shelf, but the six-year-old has too many questions and hasn't raced around one turn in a long time. We'll still use him in the top three.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) turned in a solid runner-up performance on turf when making his 2010 bow last out, but he has limited experience over all-weather tracks (2-0-0-1) and appears a little better at two-turn distances. The Grade 2 winner is an honest performer, recording a 2-1-1 mark in his last five attempts, and we'll include him in some exotics.

COUNTRY FLAVOR (Empire Maker) will be running late for Greg Geier and merits some consideration for a minor award at long odds. A maiden scorer at Arlington last August, the four-year-old's last effort on turf is a throw out. His BRIS Speed ratings earlier this season are commendable, but the gelding will be facing a class test in his stakes debut. BROTHERS NICHOLAS (Smart Strike) has run well at Arlington in the past, but he's winless in five attempts at a mile and doesn't bring sharp form into this event.

VICTORY NOTION (Victory Gallop) will be running late, but he's unplaced in two previous attempts on all-weather tracks and can't be recommended on the class hike. MCLARD (Slew City Slew) and MAD FLATTER (Flatter) will break from post 1 and 2, respectively, and the front runners figure to mix it up right from the start. We can't envision either sustaining their speed.

1st-WILDEYDSOUTHERNBOY
2nd-GRAN ESTRENO (Arg)
3rd-TYBALT

ARISTIDES S. (G3), 8TH-CD, $100,000, 3YO/UP, 6F, 4:29 P.M. EDT, 5-29

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 ATTA BOY ROY LUND VALORIE BOREL C H 124
2 CHIEF OF AFFAIRS CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET MENA M 120
3 LISSA'S STAR SLAGER MIKE LANERIE C J 118
4 RILEY TUCKER ASMUSSEN STEVEN M BRIDGMOHAN S X 118
5 CASH REFUND MARGOLIS STEPHEN R HERNANDEZ B J J 122
6 CASSOULET BAKER JAMES TORRES F C 118

A compact field of six will speed six panels in the $100,000 Aristides S. (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Churchill Downs S. (G2) upsetter ATTA BOY ROY (Tribunal) proved that he can take his show on the road in his last pair, including a fine win against a track bias most recently for trainer Valorie Lund. The five-year-old ridgling is six-for-10 at this distance, owns terrific BRIS Speed ratings (103 last time) and could show even more improvement in his third off the shelf under Calvin Borel.

Multiple stakes star CASH REFUND (Petionville) is three-quarters of a length short of being perfect in six lifetime starts for conditioner Steve Margolis. The speedy four-year-old has taken down some fine runners as of late and will likely go off favored in here, as he should. The gelding will be awfully tough with his best.

RILEY TUCKER (Harlan's Holiday) has posted triple-digit BRIS Speed numbers in three straight races and seems primed for a nice showing from just off the pace for trainer Steve Asmussen. The Kentucky-bred doesn't love to win, but he's in great form right now and might get a perfect trip just off the early leaders.

Rising sprint star CHIEF OF AFFAIRS (Yonaguska) has excellent early speed and has never been better for trainer Bret Calhoun. The fleet bay is the inside speed of the race and has led at the stretch call in six straight, so you may not want to leave out the Texas-bred.

CASSOULET (Distorted Humor) rolled home a clear winner in a recent allowance race on this oval, but we're willing to let the five-year-old beat us in this one. LISSA'S STAR (Valid Expectations) faces a daunting class hike following a romp in a $25,000 claiming event at Arlington Park.

1st-ATTA BOY ROY
2nd-CASH REFUND
3rd-RILEY TUCKER

DOGWOOD S. (G3), 10TH-CD, $100,000, 3YO, F, 1M, 5:29 P.M. EDT, 5-29

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 TAP TAP TAPPING VANCE DAVID R LENCLUD FREDERI 117
2 AGE OF HUMOR MAKER MICHAEL J TORRES F C 117
3 FUZZY BRITCHES DUTROW RICHARD E LANERIE C J 119
4 AILALEA PLETCHER TODD A BOREL C H 123
5 HELEN BELEN DENZIK WILLIAM J JR GONZALEZ S JR 119
6 VERTICAL VISION ASMUSSEN STEVEN M BRIDGMOHAN S X 119
7 VISAVIS MARGOLIS STEPHEN R THERIOT H J II 117
8 BELL'S SHOES FIRES WILLIAM H COURT J K 117

An octet of sophomore fillies will go one-mile on the Churchill Downs main strip in Saturday's $100,000 Dogwood S. (G3), and we like AILALEA (Pulpit) to return to her winning ways in this affair for conditioner Todd Pletcher. The Grade 3 victress hasn't placed in a trio of 2010 starts but has faced the best of her generation, and we're willing to forgive her for those tries. The bay will be up close from the start stalking the pace and should enjoy the class relief in here beneath Calvin Borel.

FUZZY BRITCHES (Pollard's Vision) was a sharp second in a recent allowance tune-up, posting a 108 BRIS Late Pace number in the process for Richard Dutrow. The Grade 2-placed Kentucky-bred seems capable of handling this trip and we'll use the late runner in the gimmicks with Corey Lanerie.

VISAVIS (Indian Charlie) was a decent second in the Eight Belles S. (G3) on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard last out and looks like a threat in this one-mile test. The bay Kentucky-bred has very good tactical speed and looks capable of further improvement, so we'll toss the lass in our gimmicks plays. Jamie Theriot has the call.

Busanda S. queen AGE OF HUMOR (Distorted Humor) was no factor in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last out but had good finishes prior to that, so she can't be dismissed in this affair. The bay filly, who was a close second in the Bourbonette S. (G3) two prior, is an exotics threat in our minds. Two-time stakes heroine VERTICAL VISION (Pollard's Vision) was a solid second in advance of this but lacks the BRIS Speed figures to be a win threat in this test. The Oklahoma-bred could get a small share, though, at a big price.

HELEN BELEN (Five Star Day) rolled home a 14 3/4-length winner of the Valdale S. at Turfway three back but has yet to build upon that showing for trainer William Denzik Jr. The bay will be making her dirt debut in this event and while we think it's possible that she improves, we'll let her beat us. BELL'S SHOES (Mineshaft) owns just a maiden win and may find herself overmatched in this field. Honeybee S. (G3) third TAP TAP TAPPING (Tapit) was dusted in a recent local allowance and can't factor into our wagers on this occasion.

1st-AILALEA
2nd-FUZZY BRITCHES
3rd-VISAVIS