Home Forums Skybox Sports Bar Selections Central Yzer's 2010 WNBA Season

It's almost that time of year again as we are just over 3 weeks away from the start of the WNBA season.

There were some organizational changes since last season ended as the team from Detroit has moved to Tulsa with Nolan Richardson as head coach, as well the Sacramento team folded and the majority of players were taken in their dispersal draft.

Once the season starts I'll be posting all my plays throughout the season in this thread.

Until then I'll be posting various statistics from last season, my main focus will be the number of possessions teams get in a game and work with their efficiency both on the offensive and defensive end.

Regular Season starts May 15th

Really looking forward to a profitable season.

The pre-season has finally begun, it's always interesting to see how many minutes these coaches give the younger players.

with the womens game a fair amount of the starters play over in Europe during the WNBA "off season" so the majority are already in shape and don't get many (if any) minutes in the pre-season.

I haven't forgotten about posting the stats from last year, I've been a tad lazy plus I'm not sure if there is enough interest to upload the spreadsheets to google documents or just copy/paste certain information.

I'll have a final decision within the next couple of days.. 2 weeks tonight from the start of the season :D

Looking forward to your selections. Will you be giving a breakdown of each team like you did last year?

For sure, should have the Eastern Conference preview up tonight or tomorrow at the latest and hopefully have the Western Conference up by Wednesday. Will have the major transactions each team made in the off season along with what to expect in the 2010 season :D

This is a screen of one of the pdf files from wnba.com I also have the breakdown of these categories in home/away format in a .xls (spreadsheet) file, I will post that if necessary



http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y132/FranchiseMW/MiscRankings.jpg

Eastern Conference preview to come.....

Relatively quiet off season other than the huge 3 team trade involving Cappie Pondexter. The Sacramento franchise is gone and Detroit has moved to Tulsa moving from the Eastern Conference to the Western Conference.. now both Conferences have 6 teams...

Eastern Conference Preview

Team: Atlanta Dream
Head Coach: Marynell Meadors, 3rd year been with team since inception 22-46 record
2009 Record:: 18-16, 2nd in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (6-11)


Major Additions:
Chanel Mokango (draft, 9th overall pick)
Kelly Miller (from Minnesota)
Dalma Ivanyi (from San Antonio)

Major Subtractions:
Michelle Snow (to San Antonio)

2010 Outlook:
The Dream were a nice story last season as they turned a 4-22 2008 season into the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference going 18-16. They played at a very fast pace as they were only 2nd to Phoenix in total # of possessions a game at 85. They dominated inside as they were the #1 team in the paint scoring an average of almost 41 a game. They also led the league with 13 fast break points/game.

The addition of Kelly Miller should provide veteran leadership at the guard position which will cut down the # of turnovers- the Dream was 2nd last to only Sacramento in opponents’ points off turnovers/game last season.

It should be another solid season for Atlanta as I see them contending for the #1 seed in the East.


Team: Chicago Sky
Head Coach: Steven Key, 3rd season with team 28-40 record
2009 Record:: 16-18, 5th in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (4-13)


Major Additions:
Shameka Christon (from New York)
Cathrine Kraayeveld (from New York)
Epiphanny Prince (draft, 4th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Candice Dupree (to Phoenix)
Katie Mattera (to New York)

2010 Outlook:

Anyone who read my posts last year knows I’m very high on this young Chicago team. At first I wasn’t sure about trading Dupree but I think Christon & Kravy will provide some a veteran presence that they really lacked last season. Inside Sylvia Fowles is a beast, but she struggled with fouls all season and as a result only played 692 minutes (678 on the bench). The trade with NY should give Chicago better perimeter defense which should allow Fowles more time to be dominant on court. I’m also a huge fan of Erin Thorn coming off the bench as well as bringing Kristi Toliver along gradually. It may take them a few weeks to gel together but I see Chicago being very competitive this season.


Team: Connecticut Sun
Head Coach: Mike Thibault 8th season with team, 143-95 record
Record: 16-18, 6th in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (4-13)


Major Additions:
Kara Lawson (from Sacramento)
Tina Charles (draft, 1st overall pick)
Kelsey Griffin (draft, 3rd overall pick {from Minnesota})
Danielle McCray (draft, 7th overall pick)
Renee Montgomery (from Minnesota)

Major Subtractions:
Lindsay Whalen (to Minnesota)
Chante Black (to Tulsa)
Amber Holt (to Tulsa)


2010 Outlook:
It’s clear that the youth movement has begun in Connecticut, the big question is how effective will their rookies be this season. Tina Charles was the #1 overall pick, she won’t be as effective as Candace Parker in her rookie year but she should be more effective (and get more time) than last year’s #1 McCoughtry (Atlanta). Losing Whalen is obviously big, but I think they’ll miss Amber Holt even more. Holt missed the majority of last season with an injury (only played 380 minutes) but she seemed to be finding her groove as the season was ending both offensively and on the defensive end.

It will be a year of growing pains for Connecticut however Mike Thibault is definitely the right coach and depending on how effective the rookies are Connecticut could battle for a playoff spot.




Team: Indiana Fever
Head Coach: Lin Dunn, 3rd season with team 39-29 record
Record: 22-12, 1st in Eastern Conference Home (14-3) Away (8-9)


Major Additions:
Ashley Battle (from New York)
Jene Morris (draft, 11th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Tamecka Dixon (retirement)

2010 Outlook:
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Fever did not make any drastic changes to their roster and why should they? They lost in the finals to Phoenix last season but have a very good chance on getting back there this season. Arguably the best starting 5 in the WNBA returns in tact. The only possible concern for this team is age as 4 out the 5 are over 30 years old. It will be critical as Ashley Battle plays well off the bench as well, Briann January needs to continue to improve as she enters her 2nd full season.. The health of Tameka Catchings is always a concern but provided she’s ready to go it the Eastern Conference is once again Indiana’s for the taking.


Team: Washington Mystics
Head Coach: Julie Plank, 2nd season with team 16-18 record
Record: 16-18, 4th in Eastern Conference Home (11-6) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Katie Smith (from Tulsa)
Jacinta Moore (draft, 6th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Alana Beard (out for season)

2010 Outlook:
Alana Beard going down is really going to hurt this team, I just don’t see where the scoring is going to come from. The signing of Katie Smith would be more impressive if this was 2004 and not 2010. Not sure how many minutes the soon-to-be 36 year old will play. Lindsay Harding is a turnover machine which is why Washington was tied 2nd last in the opponents points off turnovers/game at 18. Unless the whole team steps up to fill in Beard’s ~20 points a game it’s going to be a very long season in Washington.

Team: New York Liberty
Head Coach: Anne Donovan 1st full season as HC, took over during last season 7-10 record
Record: 13-21, 6th place in Eastern Conference Home (9-13) Away (8-9)


Major Additions:
Cappie Pondexter (from Phoenix)
Nicole Powell (Sacramento, dispersal draft)
Kelly Mazzante (from Phoenix)
Taj McWilliams (from Tulsa)
Katie Mattera (from Chicago)

Major Subtractions:
Shameka Christon (to Chicago)
Cathrine Kraayeveld (to Chicago)

2010 Outlook:

I left NY until last because I really have no clue what to expect from the Liberty this season. No doubt Cappie Pondexter has been great the past few seasons, but the thing is she was playing in the same backcourt as Diana Taurasi. I can’t believe NY will be successful if they try to mimic Phoenix and play the run and shoot style, I don’t think they have enough firepower. Cappie was fantastic as the 2nd option on the floor but whether or not she can carry a team remains to be seen. Also Liberty head coach Anne Donovan has already accepted the Seton Hall womens basketball job which she will start in August, this may be a lame duck season in NY and for that reason I just can’t buy into the hype. They may battle for a playoff spot but anything other than that- I’ll believe it when I see it.

Will have the Western Conference up Tuesday or Wednesday.

Only 13 days until tipoff :) :)

Good stuff !!! Can't wait to rack the rim with some trim LOL

I fixed your picture so you could see it better as well. :)

good stuff thanks for fixing that.. no matter how bad of a day I've had that picture always gets a silly smile out of me :)


Just want to explain the plus/minus data set here because I talk about it in the Western Conference preview which will be up shortly.


The plus/minus category takes the difference in points for and against when the player is on the floor compared to when they are on the bench...

To use Sue Bird as an example as she was ranked #1 in the 2009 season

Sue Bird (+16.7).............ON FLOOR: (74.7 - 69.2) (NET +5.5)...........ON BENCH (64.1 - 75.3) (NET 11.2) so the 5.5 + 11.2 = 16.7


Here are the top 5 from last season (player must play at least 300 minutes to make this list)......

Sue Bird, Seattle Storm (+16.7) ............ON (74.7 -69.2).......BENCH (64.1 - 75.3)

Lindsay Harding, Washington (+16.1).........ON (76.5 - 75.5)......BENCH (66.4 - 81.4)

Tameka Catchings, Indiana Fever (+15.4).....ON (76.9 - 70.5)......BENCH (69.4 - 78.4)

Katie Douglas, Indiana Fever (+13.6)........ON (76.8 - 70.0)......BENCH (71.2 - 78.0)

Tameka Johnson, Phoenix Mercury (+13.4)......ON (94.8 - 86.6).....BENCH (85.2 - 90.2)


Now these #'s are a wonderful to have but they have to be used wisely. For example Catchings' & Douglas' numbers are much more impressive to me than Lindsay Harding, to me it means the Washington bench is extremely weak defensively. When you look at Sue Bird it's clear how important she is on both sides of the ball for Seattle.

I actually have the #'s for every player who played last season :D :mario:

WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Team: Tulsa Shock (formerly Detroit Shock)
Head Coach: Nolan Richardson, 1st year with team
2009 Record: 18-16, 3rd in Eastern Conference Home (11-6) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Shanna Crossley (from San Antonio)
Marion Jones (yes seriously)
Chante Black (from Connecticut)
Amber Holt (from Connecticut)

Major Subtractions:
Deanna Nolan? (Apparently taking the year off)
Cheryl Ford? (still a free agent no desire to play in Tulsa)
Crystal Kelly (to San Antonio)
Katie Smith (to Washington)
Taj McWilliams (to New York)

2010 Outlook:
The Tulsa Shock may be in for a very rough season. Deanna Nolan and Cheryl Ford were the heart and soul of this team the past few seasons, neither are currently under contract and it seems neither will be for this upcoming season. Their signing of Marion Jones is a nice PR move but will add nothing on the court, I’m a fan of Amber Holt but she certainly isn’t enough to carry this team. Plenette Pierson was a nice option off the bench in 2008 but missed last season with an injury and I have huge doubts that she can enter the starting lineup and play 30+ minutes a game.. Guard Shavonte Zellous is a train wreck, she has no problem taking 25 shots a game but the problem is she only makes 5 of them. In summary, nice PR moves with Richardson as coach and Marion Jones but it’s all fluff no substance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win less than 13 games this season.



Team: Minnesota Lynx
Head Coach: Cheryl Reeve, 1st season with team
Record: 14-20, 5th in Western Conference Home (9-8) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Lindsay Whalen (from Connecticut)
Rebekkah Brunson (Sacramento, dispersal draft)
Monica Wright (draft, 2nd overall)
Hamchetou Maiga-Ba (from Sacramento)


Major Subtractions:
Tasha Humphrey (to San Antonio)
Kelly Miller (to Atlanta)
Latoya Pringle (to LA)
Roneeka Hodges (to San Antonio)
Renee Montgomery (to Connecticut)


2010 Outlook:
The Minnesota Lynx were dealt a crushing blow after a 2-0 start last season as their star Seimone Augustus went down and missed the remainder of the season. The bad news for Minnesota is she just had another surgery last week the good news is she shouldn’t miss much time- and she might even be ready for opening night. Candice Wiggins on the other hand also had surgery and will miss ~4 weeks.

Assuming Augustus can come back healthy I think Minnesota is going to be a very good team this season, home-town girl Lindsay Whalen is exactly who they need to run this offense, they are very strong offensively and have weapons inside and outside who can score. However they will have to improve defensively as their opponents had an efficiency of 103% (points/possession). However The addition of Brunson inside should do exactly that. My boldest prediction is I believe Minnesota can contend for the #1 seed in the West.


Team: LA Sparks
Head Coach: Jennifer Gillom 1st season as head coach taking over for Michael Cooper
2009 Record:18-16 Home (11-6) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Andrea Riley (draft, 8th overall pick)
Ticha Penicheiro (from Sacramento)
LaToya Pringle (from Minnesota)

Major Subtractions:
Lisa Leslie (retirement)

2010 Outlook:
The LA Sparks are a big question mark to me. Candace Parker is great but I have doubts about the rest of this team. Lisa Leslie retired leaving DeLisha Milton-Jones and Tina Thompson as the backup scoring options which is fine but both are over 35 years old, I’m a huge fan of Andrea Riley and followed her career at Oklahoma State but I can’t imagine her having too much of an impact for the Sparks this season. They are going to be a defense first team and play at a relatively slow tempo, the signing of Penicheiro is a perfect fit for that. They have enough veteran leadership that they’ll probably land a playoff spot but it won’t be all glitz and glam in LA this season.


Team: San Antonio Silver Stars
Head Coach: Sandy Brondello 1st season with team
2009 Record: 15-19 Home (10-7) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Jayne Appel (draft, 5th overall pick)
Tasha Humphrey (from Minnesota)
Roneeka Hodges (from Minnesota)
Crystal Kelly (from Tulsa)
Michelle Snow (from Atlanta)

Major Subtractions:
Ann Wauters (taking the year off)
Shanna Crossley (to Tulsa)
Dalma Ivanyi (to Atlanta)


2010 Outlook:
It’s a new look Silver Stars team and it may take them a while to gel but when they do I expect them to return to their 2008 form where they went to the finals. Losing Ann Wauters is huge as she is a defensive force, they hope that 6’5 draft pick Jayne Appel and newly acquired Crystal Kelly will fill that void and keep their rebounding and inside presence strong, the offence will once again through Becky Hammon. Sophia Young will continue to improve on her way to becoming a star. The addition of Hodges and Humphrey gives them credible 3 point shooters. I expect a big turnaround from their 15-19 season as 20+ wins isn’t out of the question.


Team: Phoenix Mercury
Head Coach: Corey Gaines 39-29, 1 WNBA championship
2009 Record: 23-11 Home (12-5) Away (11-6)


Major Additions:
Candice Dupree (from Chicago)
Ashley Paris (from Sacramento)

Major Subtractions:
Cappie Pondexter (to New York)
Kelly Mazzante (to New York)
Le’Coe Willingham (to Seattle)


2010 Outlook:
Life without Cappie begins for the defending WNBA champs but the good news for them is they still have MVP Diana Taurasi. Dupree should fit in nicely with the Phoenix run and gun system. DeWanna Boner will have a larger role this season but I expect the 2nd year player out of Auburn to thrive with the added minutes. Phoenix should be able to grab a playoff spot relatively easily we’ll have to see just how high that seed will be.


Team: Seattle Storm
Head Coach: Brian Agler 3rd season with team, 44-26.
2009 Record: 20-14 Home (13-4) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Le’Coe Willingham (from Phoenix)
Alison Lacey (draft, 10th overall)

Major Subtractions:
Chelsea Newton (retirement)


2010 Outlook:
The Storm go as far as Lauren Jackson & Sue Bird will take them. Looking at last years stats, Sue Bird was #1 in the league in the plus/minus department and LJ was 9th. (plus/minus ratio is explained in the post above.) The nagging problem with LJ has been her injuries, between her back, ankle and foot last season she was only on the court for 842 minutes (562 on the bench). When she was on the court she was usually the best player on it.

One of the biggest concerns for Seattle last year was bench scoring. They ranked last at a pathetic 12 points a game from their bench. Even keeping in mind that LJ missed a considerable amount of time last season 12 points a game is beyond brutal. I refuse to make a prediction on the Storm because it comes down to the health of LJ, apparently from all reports I’ve read she’s healthy coming into this season but that can change in a flash and if she goes down it’s clear Seattle is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Well there you have it, a nice quick preview for the 2010 season. Really looking forward to taking some shots, only 11 days until tipoff :)

Preseason Results thus far

Not including the games some of the teams have played against International teams, they are more of a fun shoot-around rather than a competitive game.

Sometimes WNBA preseason games are absolutely meaningless but at times things will happen that carry over to the regular season.

Seattle 77 Phoenix 58
Connecticut 86 Atlanta 79
Washington 65 New York 60
Indiana 69 Chicago 63
Chicago 74 Minnesota 65

Only a couple of things really stood out--Atlanta didn't play any of their starters while Connecticut used 14 players total but gave their starters a majority of the minutes.. Gardin, Walker, Tina Charles, Montgomery & Lawson were their starters and all played at least 21 minutes with Tina Charles getting 31.. Not sure what to make of the fact they only beat the Atlanta bench team by 7 points.. might be a rougher start than I first thought in Connecticut.

Also Lindsay Whalen got 32 minutes for Minnesota and all the healthy starters played huge minutes. I like the fact that Whalen got a full game in the backcourt with draft pick Wright. However I don't like they still lost by 9 against a Chicago team that didn't play their starters heavy minutes..

Again it's only 1 game and there is time to improve so I won't rush to judgement but definitely shaky starts for Conn & Minn.

Start of the regular season is just 7 days away!!

Lines out now from Pinnacle:

Sat 5/15 601 Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 -105 OVER 176 -102
11:00 AM 602 Phoenix Mercury -4.5 -105 UNDER 176 -108
Sat 5/15 603 Chicago Sky +3.5 -109 OVER 149.5 -105
12:35 PM 604 Connecticut Sun -3.5 -101 UNDER 149.5 -105
Sat 5/15 605 Washington Mystics +8 -109 OVER 150.5 -105
04:05 PM 606 Indiana Fever -8 -101 UNDER 150.5 -105
Sat 5/15 607 Minnesota Lynx +6 -102 OVER 167 -105
05:05 PM 608 Tulsa Shock -6 -108 UNDER 167 -105
Sat 5/15 609 Atlanta Dream +5 +100 OVER 169.5 -105
05:05 PM 610 San Antonio Silver Stars -5 -110 UNDER 169.5 -105

Nice to see lines up a whole day in advance, looking very hard at Minnesota, still want to run a few numbers before I make a play, as a couple of totals look a little fishy to me too, have to remember it's a marathon not a sprint though :D

back later tonight with some previews & plays

Just over 24 hours until tip off, it's getting exciting :D

Just a quick note about a trade that occurred Thursday, I didn't even get an alert about it until yesterday and I think it's definitely worth mentioning.

The Chicago Sky made a bold statement on Thursday evening when they sent projected starting PG Kristi Toliver to LA for nothing more than a draft pick in next years draft. That statement is that 1st round draft pick Epiphanny Prince is ready to start contribute to the team now.

LET THE SEASON BEGIN!

Saturday May 15th, 2010

Chicago Sky +2 -108 (1ST HALF) over Connecticut Sun (1 unit)..3:30 PM EST Tipoff

IMO the wrong team is laying points here, It's rebuilding time for Connecticut. Chicago comes in with a new look as well but much higher hopes for the season. The trade of Toliver is really big to me, it means they think Prince is ready to have a large impact for them-- reading through the notes she was a force in overseas during the past few months that could translate very well for them. Inside the big matchup is rookie Tina Charles vs Sylvia Fowles, I like Fowles a lot and she should be a dominant force - and hopefully stay out of foul trouble.

Another stat (although somewhat meaningless, it's still interesting) is Connecticut was 9-23-2 in the 1Q and 13-20-1 SU in the 2Q last season, there is a coaching advantage that Connecticut has which is why I think taking Chicago 1H is a better play. Thibault can make HT adjustments better than anyone and this is the type of game where Chicago could fall apart in the 4th Q so I'm happier with the +2 in the 1H.

Projeted HT score: Chicago 42 Connecticut 37.

No other plays at the moment, without Augustus I just can't take Minnesota .....

good luck & here's to a profitable 2010 WNBA SEASON! :rich:

is there some easy money to be made in the WNBA? i have seldomly bet it through the years.. should i be betting it more?

Unfortunately Nothing is easy. I will say that over the past few seasons WNBA lines have certainly been softer than other sports, but they have tightened up in the past few seasons.

It'll be a long grind and I hope to hit a groove by the middle of the season so there ideally there will be more plays as the season progresses.

good thing too since Chicago is down 14 in the 2ndQ, always a bitter feeling to start the season with a loss! :shrug:

ytd 0-1 -1.08

Thursday May 20th, 2010 Yes I know that game is tomorrow

San Antonio Silver Stars +2 -103 over Tulsa Shock (1 unit)

getting this now as I expect this line to move closer to pk before tipoff, wrong team favoured IMHO. Will have an actual writeup later tonight

Just a quick note on the Minny/Seattle game tonight, my projected final is 82-69 for Seattle, line right now is Sea -10.5, 150 so no clear advantage here, I'm not risking any money on a game that will come down to whether or not Minnesota hits a 3 at the end of the game to cover :) There will be much better chances this season to make some money... good luck to anyone who plays it..

right now SA is down to +1.5 +100 at Pinny, I imagine it'll keep falling, really like SA in this spot to be honest if it wasn't so early in the season this would be a 2 unit play but I'm going to be strict as I can with my money management so only 1 unit it is.

(I haven't forgotten to explain why I like them so much but I'll do it when I get back home tonight, it's been a long day for me so far :P)

gl

Just a follow up to my previous post, as I said in my preview to the season I don't think Tulsa will reach double digit wins on the season, SA is easily the better team. Becky Hammon should have a field day against the Tulsa guards and I expect Sophia Young to dominate early and often, in all honesty I was prepared to lay 4 or 5 with SA here to be getting points is amazing to me but I certainly won't refuse them.

gl

Nice to pop the cherry with the first win in the wnba this season as SA won by 9.

2 games on the schedule tomorrow night, not a chance I'm going to touch Connecticut @ Atlanta, have no idea what to expect from either team, but the other game I think there might be a play on the ladies from New York...time will tell.

ytd 1-1 -0.08

Friday May 21st, 2010

New York Liberty +4 -112 over Washington Mystics (1 unit)

I'm a little upset with myself that I missed the +4.5 that I could have had last night but in all honesty I don't think I'll need any points with the ladies from NY tonight.

I think NY will push the pace and because of that I expect a lot of turnovers from the Washington backcourt. Inside I expect Taj McWilliams-Franklin and McCarville to at least hold their own against Melvin & Sanford in the paint. Washington is a bit of a surprise at 2-0 but I think they take their first defeat at the hands of Cappie & co. tonight!

gl!

1-2 -1.20

NY leads almost whole game and disappears in the 4thQ, typical WNBA style choke.

Looks like my luck is just as bad as last season. onto tomorrow.