Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks Freak's 5/1 Racing Picks

Heck it's only 1PM Eastern and here we are in Churchills 6th already.

For me race 6 is about 1 horse and 1 horse only.

Hot Dixie Chick.

Give me $75 to win and place. It really should be $150 to win but I always play it safe just in case.

Major upset in the Eight Belles as BUckle UP Buttercup scores at 7-1. HDC was in the top 3 flight but had 2 sidekicks along with her which she hasn't had in her prior races. Appears she was used early and didn't hold to the surface. No excuses she was beat and handily.

Rain is heading to Churchill in a heavy fashion, it's raining now but it's light.

Speed hasn't held up so far and we are going to have to watch for more of this.

We move on to the 7th and shake off what happened in the 6th

The betting is on two horses Tizaqueena and Fantasia. Tizaqueena is the reigning champ and should be out front and try to take it wire to wire. I see company coming and like the last race it will be the undoing of Tizaqueena.

I think this comes down to two closers. Fantasia and Miss Keller.

Play Fantasia on top and let's make it 75 to win and place.
I'm going to add Miss Keller for the exacta for $20

Taking a shot with the 7, and key her over the 2/5/6

7 faded late, oh well. On to the 8th race.
exacta and tri boxes with 2/3/4/9.

How we doing freak?

Damn am I stinking up the place. But horse racing isn't easy. I've picked the winner 5 of the last 6 NASCAR races which has 43 cars but haven't hit with 6-10 horses !!!

Those that have been with me a long time know that I do well with the ponies and on a day like today it's a bit tougher.

Ok guys, I am going with #10 Mona De Momma at ML 6-1. This race doesn't produce favorites at all. If you go back and look at the last 15 years or so, there's been 1 favorite to win.

When I looked at this race I came up with #2 Warbling with ML 8-1 but now the horse is 3-1. My second choice was Mona De Momma and I have to go with the price. I might jinx myself by doing this but we'll see.

50WP on #10 Mona De Momma a late closer and closers have done well today!

The horse I fear is #9 Free Flying Soul who should be up near the lead or leading the way.

Very nice score there tom !!!, well done. :rich:

off to work unfortunately ,
My derby picks
$20 wps bets on 1,2.6.11,13
50 cent tri box same 5
super keys,
13-1/2/6/11
11-/1/2/6/13
6-1/2/11/13
2-1/6/11/13

Good Luck Freak

Momma delivers and paid $19.20 to win and $8.80 to place

The tab so far

R6 -150
R7 -170
R8 +600

Overall +280

Now we have some house $$$$ to play with. Let's see if we can get some more in the next 2 before the Derby.

Momma came flying like I said and I was sitting there saying look at Warbling but knew he was fading and then there was Free Flying Soul with the lead and I am watching Momma flying and trying to calculate the distance left and when he said 100 yards left, I knew we had a great chance and we got there.

Rain is hitting the track heavier now and this track is going to be an absolute mess. The Derby is so wide open it's likely we play 5 horses and get the odds to go with it. I don't see anything that stands out and I handicapped this race last night. I am looking at the following:

Sidneys candy
Conveyance
Super Saver/Awesome Act
Dublin

That's the order I came up with and I couldn't separate Super and Awesome.


If you're following along, please post and get in on the action. If you're visiting, click on register user and become a member.

Thanks Alex good luck man, good to see you as always.

60 viewers in this topic, nice.... be sure to click on forums and see what else there is to offer on the site. Hot chicks, Hot picks.... see em all.

Race 9 at CD is a race that I came up with 3 potential winners.

Wall Street Wonder
Musket Man
Warrior's Reward

Musket Man is the favorite and Warrior is 2nd choice. 5/2 and 4-1
Wall Street is 12-1

Here's the deal Musket and Warrior are stone cold closers and finished 1-2 in the Carter earning a 103 rating. Warrior won by a nose in a 6 horse field neither was the favorite in the race. Munnings was who is also in this race and finished 3rd behind those two.

As for Wall Street he hasn't faced the type of competition that the 3 mentioned have but comes into the race winning two in a row. The issue is gate to wire status.

Up front hasn't been the place to be today but I really like what I see with Wall Street and one thing is going to happen. He wins for fun, he wins by a neck or less or he comes in second to last or last.

With that said we are playing with house money and I am going to take a small stab here.

Wall Street Wonder $20 to win and place.

As predicted Wall Street finished last. He was in contention for about 1/4 to 3/8 of the race and then fell back and was actually eased. We lose $40 in the race. We are still up $240

Race 9 let's go with #2 General Quarters 20 to win/place only.

General Quarters paid $19.60 and $8.40 so we win $240 more

We are up $480 with the Derby to go !!

Good going Freak

Derby
Ex,Tri
1,2,4,7
1,12,14,20

Good Luck Everyone

Ok guys a lot of time til the post and I am putting this out there now.

Bet $20 to win and place on all of these horses:

#20 Sidney Candy 9-1
#12 Conveyance 25-1
#4 Super Saver 8-1
#16 Awesome Act 12-1
#17 Dublin 19-1

As long as one of these horses win we win and it will pay nice.

I can't say I have ever bet 5 horse to win like this in all of the Derby's I have ever bet on. This is a wide open race and we have 25% of the field on our side. At the worst we get 6 to 8 to 1 odds on Super Saver and it will still pay to the plus side for us.

Also play a $2 box of 4,12,16,17,20 it will cost you $40

For the trifecta play a $2 box of 4/12/16/20 it will cost you $48

This means we have $288 invested in the race and if we lose it all, we still show a profit for KY Derby Day of $192 and I don't think anyone cries over that.

We have a huge potential to have a monster day if one of our horses win and we will fill in a exacta or tri.

I will gladly lose all bets to hit one of these tri's because it is going to pay monster. If we get Conveyance on top, watch out !!!!!

Super Saver won at 8-1 paying $18 to win and $8.80 to place.

We invested $288 and got back $268 so we lost $20 on the race. Not a win for the race but considering how we were spread all over the place it's not the end of the world.

Our other horses faded in Conveyance and Sidney, they went out way too fast for the 1/2 mile. Awesome Act didn't take to the track at all and Dublin did come running late but it was too late.

We win $460 for the races today. Anytime you can beat the ponies it's a great day because it's not easy. Considering I was down $320 after 2 races, this was a great day.

2 weeks till we get to the Preakness.

Not sure how many tailed me today but if you did, I hope you made the money. Be sure to send me some!