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Good luck everyone and let's hope the race is as close as the Oaks.

WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC S. (G1), 10TH-CD, $500,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/8MT, 4:46 P.M. EDT, 5-1

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 WISE RIVER HANNA CLARK BOREL C H 117
2 GENERAL QUARTERS MCCARTHY THOMAS R BEJARANO R 119
3 COURT VISION DUTROW RICHARD E ALBARADO R J 124
4 POP TARRT DEEGAN JOSEPH C GONZALEZ S JR 117
5 AL KHALI MOTT WILLIAM I DESORMEAUX K J 119
6 BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) MULLINS JEFF DOMINGUEZ R A 119
7 BLUES STREET PLETCHER TODD A CASTELLANO J J 121
8 LOUP BRETON (IRE) CANANI JULIO C GOMEZ G K 121
9 YATE'S BLACK CAT ROMANS DALE LEPAROUX JULIEN 117

A nine-horse field will line-up in the $500,000 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. COURT VISION (Gulch) is the most accomplished runner in the field and the most likely winner for conditioner Richard Dutrow. A multiple Grade 1 winner, the dark bay was a good second in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out and should be primed while running at what we think could be his most effective distance. Robby Albarado will guide the Kentucky-bred.

BLUES STREET (Street Cry [Ire]) is in peak condition for trainer Todd Pletcher and enters this race on a four-race winning streak. The Grade 2 star was offered for a claiming tag as recently as the summer, but after removing blinkers four starts ago, the dark bay hasn't really been tested while defeating some fine runners. Javier Castellano will pilot the top win threat.

The ever-consistent BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) (Royal Applause [GB]) has been a high-quality player ever since coming to the United States and will almost surely break through at this level at some point in his career for Jeff Mullins. The gelded four-year-old is adept at handling distances from one mile to 10 furlongs, and our only concern about him in here is the expected lack of early pace. Ramon Dominguez will ride the bay for the first time.

LOUP BRETON (Ire) (Anabaa) took the San Marcos S. (G2) two races prior and is among the top turf performers on the West Coast for trainer Julio Canani. The classy bay will remove his blinkers for this race, and it's a positive that the six-year-old was supplemented to this one, so we must include the accomplished horse with Garrett Gomez.

YATE'S BLACK CAT (Black Minnaloushe) should be forwardly placed from the outside under Julien Leparoux and could get first run on the closers for Dale Romans. The dark bay likes this oval with five wins in 12 tries upon it, and while he's never proven to be of Grade 1 quality, he could be the one to catch at the top of the lane. AL KHALI (Medaglia d'Oro), hero of the Saranac S. (G3) in the fall, hasn't raced since a fourth-place finish in the Hollywood Derby (G1) for conditioner Bill Mott. The talented bay has worked well in advance of this and is a very steady turf performer, but we're not confident that he can win a race of this magnitude off the bench. Kent Desormeaux will be on the ridgling.

WISE RIVER (Belong to Me) hasn't won since taking an allowance/optional claiming event on this oval in April of 2009 for trainer Clark Hanna, but if the seven-year-old gets a firm turf course, he could be in for an exotics finish under Calvin Borel. The dark bay boasts a solid 10-2-3-2 mark on this strip and has been plagued with moisture-laden turf ovals in most of his latest starts while he's clearly better on firm going. GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) picked a tough spot to try the turf for the first time since 2008, but the in-form Thomas McCarthy trainee could get a share if he takes his dirt form onto the grass course. The gray four-year-old has earned triple-digit BRIS Speed numbers in each of his 2010 starts and has good tactical speed, so we'll put him in our vertical plays under Rafael Bejarano. POP TARRT (E Dubai) has run his best two races on this turf course for Joe Deegan, but the four-year-old is still a cut below the best on this day.

1st-COURT VISION
2nd-BLUES STREET
3rd-BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB)

HUMANA DISTAFF S.na Brew) led at every call in the recent Madison at Keeneland and should be rolling from the opening bell from the rail for trainer Joan Scott. The speedy four-year-old miss has one style and has never proven to be rateable in the past and she should face a bunch of speed in this one, so we're leaning toward going against the chestnut with Kent Desormeaux. DOUBLE ESPRESSO (Medaglia d'Oro) is very consistent but doesn't look ready to tackle a Grade 1 field at this stage of her development. Dual Grade 1-placed FREE FLYING SOUL (Quiet American) has a ton of early foot but is a complete mystery on dirt, so we'll just watch for now.

Grade 3 winner PRETTY PROLIFIC (Lion Heart) was second in the Test S. (G1) in the summer and is capable on her best day, but we can't use her against these. CASSIDYS PRIDE (Medaglia d'Oro) earned a whopping 106 BRIS Speed number when upsetting the Harmony Lodge H. at Gulfstream Park last out for Manuel Estevez, but until we see the bay do it on a consistent basis, we'll shop around.

1st-DUBAI MAJESTY
2nd-INFORMED DECISION
3rd-MONA DE MOMMA

CHURCHILL DOWNS S.na D WAYNE THOMPSON T J 118
6 HULL ROMANS DALE BRIDGMOHAN S X 118
7 WARRIOR'S REWARD WILKES IAN R LEPAROUX JULIEN 124
8 VENTANA BAFFERT BOB GOMEZ G K 122
9 ATTA BOY ROY LUND VALORIE BOREL C H 118
10 COOL COAL MAN ZITO NICHOLAS P LEZCANO JOSE 118
11 KENSEI ASMUSSEN STEVEN M ALBARADO R J 118
12 MUSKET MAN RYAN DEREK S DOMINGUEZ R A 118
13 ACCREDIT MAKER MICHAEL J GARCIA A 118

A high-quality field of 13 will travel seven-eighths in Saturday's $250,000 Churchill Downs S. (G2). MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) just missed in a fine showing in the Carter H. (G1) last out and looks like one of the more deserving winners in this field. The dual classic-placed colt has earned triple-digit BRIS speed figures in five straight, ranks first in Prime Power (150.7) and could get a nice trip from midpack under Ramon Dominguez. We'll take a chance with the Kentucky-bred.

WALL STREET WONDER (City Place) blossomed this winter on the inner oval at Aqueduct and is another who seems to be a major player in this well-matched field. The John Terranova charge has posted 107, 111 and 106 BRIS Speed numbers in his last three and topped a serious colt last out, so we respect the peaking colt. Channing Hill treks in from the Empire State to ride the win threat.

Two-time Grade 2 victor KENSEI (Mr. Greeley) had a nice prep race for this and must be considered a major player in this field on the basis of his sophomore campaign for Steve Asmussen. The bay colt was second in the Derby Trial S. (G3) last year in his lone appearance at Churchill Downs and has improved ever since. We'll use the colt under Robby Albarado.

Multiple Grade 2 hero MUNNINGS (Speightstown) is a strong contender in here and could get a nice trip from the rail under John Velazquez. The talented chestnut has good speed and has run well over this oval in the past, so we see no reason not to include the Todd Pletcher pupil.

Recent Carter H. (G1) winner WARRIOR'S REWARD (Medaglia d'Oro) got a much deserved Grade 1 win in his last and returns to an oval where he sports a 3-1-2-0 record. The Ian Wilkes trainee runs from well off the pace and lands in a field with a good deal of early speed, so we'd imagine he has a huge chance to win his second consecutive graded race with Julien Leparoux.

COUNTRY DAY (Speightstown) was a confident winner of the Hot Springs S. last out over a solid field and deserves a look for conditioner Steve Margolis. The four-year-old colt doesn't match up with some of the big guns in this one, but he's very capable in his own right and could challenge for a placing at a big price. ACCREDIT (E Dubai) won this race a year ago but faces an infinitely more difficult assignment with these foes -- not to mention the 13 post he was assigned. VENTANA (Toccet) has never been better for Bob Baffert, finishing first or second in six in succession including a win in the Potrero Grande H. (G2) last out. The bay is a cut below the best in here but could improve with the transfer to dirt, so we'll include him in the gimmicks.

The promising HULL (Holy Bull) was a useful third in his 2010 debut in a Keeneland allowance contest most recently and has the back talent to run with these, but it's hard to back the Dale Romans charge without knowing if he's fit. The dark bay will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. VICTORY NOTION (Victory Gallop), the off-form HAMAZING DESTINY (Salt Lake) and Turf Paradise invader ATTA BOY ROY (Tribunal) look way overmatched. COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) opted for the $150,000 Alysheba S. (G3) on Friday, where he finished second.

1st-MUSKET MAN
2nd-WALL STREET WONDER
3rd-KENSEI

CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE S. (G2), 7TH-CD, $200,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1MT, 2:08 P.M. EDT, 5-1

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 MISS KELLER (IRE) ATTFIELD ROGER CASTELLANO J J 118
2 PHOLA PLETCHER TODD A DOMINGUEZ R A 118
3 FANTASIA (GB) SHEPPARD JONATHAN E LEPAROUX JULIEN 118
4 HOOH WHY HOFFMAN MARK ALLEN R D JR 118
5 TIZAQUEENA STIDHAM MICHAEL GOMEZ G K 118
6 HOT CHA CHA SIMS PHILIP A GRAHAM J 118
7 DIAMONDRELLA (GB) CORRIGAN JIM ALBARADO R J 118
8 CURE FOR SALE (ARG) MALEK RAJA ALVARADO JUNIOR 118

An octet of fillies and mares will vie in the grassy, $200,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. TIZAQUEENA (Tiznow), the defending champ in this race for trainer Michael Stidham, is our pick to defend her title on the front end beneath Garrett Gomez. A winner in both 2010 stakes starts at Fair Grounds, the speedy five-year-old should have things her own way for the majority of this race over a course that often plays to speed when it's wet.

Dual Group 3 star FANTASIA (GB) (Sadler's Wells) had a nice U. S. debut when a closing second in an allowance event at Keeneland, and the accomplished bay must be considered a candidate to take this field down late under Julien Leparoux. The filly earned a whopping 121 BRIS Late Pace figure for her recent effort and likely wouldn't mind if the ground had some give to it.

MISS KELLER (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) fits well with this group and has a big chance from the rail for conditioner Roger Attfield. The bay four-year-old has kept fine company in her four U.S. starts and had a nice prep win in advance of this at Keeneland in her four-year-old debut. The bay should be rolling late with Javier Castellano.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) heroine HOT CHA CHA (Cactus Ridge) impressed us when third in the Jenny Wiley S. (G2) in her seasonal debut for Phil Sims, and we consider the four-year-old a big exotics player against this group. The Kentucky-bred filly has earned strong 105, 103 and 119 Late Pace ratings in her previous trio of races and could upset this field with a perfect trip.

Dual Grade 1 queen DIAMONDRELLA (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) made little headway in her four starts in Southern California and hopes to rebound in her debut for new conditioner Jim Corrigan. The last two Grade 1 tries for the six-year-old on moisture-laden turf resulted in victories, and while the lass was in better form at the time, we will not rule her out from running down this field under Robby Albarado.

PHOLA (Johannesburg) looked the part in a 4 1/4-length romp in the Hillsborough S. (G3) last out for Todd Pletcher, and the dark bay would be a huge threat if the turf had some give to it. The improved filly might have a lot to do late against these but she is worth including beneath Ramon Dominguez. Grade 1 lass HOOH WHY (Cloud Hopping) is unplaced in her lone turf try and looks to be in deep with this field. CURE FOR SALE (Arg) (Not for Sale) has been very consistent and can handle any kind of turf, but she seems best suited for the lower rungs of the exotics.

1st-TIZAQUEENA
2nd-FANTASIA (GB)
3rd-MISS KELLER (Ire)

EIGHT BELLES S.na D WAYNE THOMPSON T J 120
5 SISTER RESISTOR DUTROW RICHARD E BEJARANO R 116
6 KANTSTOPDANCIN HALL WILLIAM E FARINA TONY 116
7 VISAVIS MARGOLIS STEPHEN R BRIDGMOHAN S X 116

Grade 1 victress HOT DIXIE CHICK (Dixie Union) looks like a complete standout in the $100,000 Eight Belles S.na. The dark bay miss should love this distance and has the tactical speed to be in the mix from the opening bell, so we'll tab her for a top four placing. SISTER RESISTOR (Jump Start) will make her debut for Richard Dutrow on this day, but she's not easy to like going off her last pair. We are encouraged by the presence of pilot Rafael Bejarano, though. BELL'S SHOES (Mineshaft) and KANTSTOPDANCIN (Yes It's True) look to be a cut below the best in here.

1st-HOT DIXIE CHICK
2nd-BUCKLEUPBUTTERCUP
3rd-VISAVIS

Churchill DRF PP for whole card 5/1

Enjoy

Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $10,000N3L (1:00 ET)

#7 Six Gun Sheriff 151
#6 Mendelssohn 8/5
#1 Admiralty / #1a King Bo Bo 4/1
#3 Always On the Move 3/1

Analysis: #7 Six Gun Sheriff has some early zip and is stretching out to a mile after the colt had a lousy trip last out in his first NY start. The colt bobbled coming out of the gate, broke outward, had to check while down along the inside at the half-mile pole and faded to finish 13 lengths back. The winner of the race was Khan of Khans, who beat $7.5K non-winners of three in his next start by 6 1/2 lengths on April 17. The runner up Four Star Bo beat $7.5K non-winners of three by 9 1/4 lengths in his next outing. The ten pound bug figures to send him early and if he gets a better break, he could get loose at a big price.
#6 Mendelssohn beat $25K non winners of two last out and is jammed in for $10K here. Zito should just put a neon flashing "For Sale" sign on him. The guy cost $650K as a yearling. The fact this guy was not claimed out of his last few suggests this guy is being held together by duct tape.


Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,3,6,7,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 8 Humana Distaff G1 (2:59 ET)

#2 Warbling 8/1
#3 Informed Decision 2/1
#6 Pretty Prolific 20/1
#4 Dubai Majesty 6/1

Analysis: #2 Warbling ran huge last out taking the field gate to wire to win the Inside Information at Gulfstream Park going seven furlongs. She beat a solid group of runners that day. The runner up Tar Heel Mom came back to win the Distaff 'Cap (G2) at the Big A in her next start, while fifth place finisher Pinkarella won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town in her next start on April 17. The filly owns a solid pace profile throughout and has worked sharply over the main track for her local debut. She is bred to handle a wet track and ran a game second in the Sugar Swirl in the slop three back, missing in a photo to our third choice in here. Leparoux is off to ride our second choice, but #3 Informed Decision was last year's female sprint champ after winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), so that is no surprise. I doubt we see the 8/1 ML.
#3 Informed Decision came up short last out in her '10 debut, but it seems most of the horses coming back off the shelf after competing in the Breeders' Cup seem to need a race. She was the beaten chalk, catching a polytrack surface that was playing to inside speed that day. She figures to bounce back off that effort but the 2/1 ML is likely going to be 7/5 by the time they load them in the gate. She won this race last spring and did it over a sloppy surface.

Wagering

WIN: #2 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,6,9

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Beaugay G3 (4:44 ET)

#2 Liberally 12/1
#8 My Princess Jess 5/2
#3 Scolara 7/2
#7 Miss World 5/1

Analysis: #2 Liberally is 0 for 3 since coming to the U.S., catching ground with give to it in each of the three outings. Last out the mare raced near the back of the pack and made just a mild late run to finish sixth last out while beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot. That was a solid field, the winner Speak Easy Gal coming back to win the Florida bred Tbred Charities in her next start while the runner up Lady Shakespeare came back to win the Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland in her next outing on April 22. Perhaps the cut back in distance and some firmer footing can suit this gal, who figures to be overlooked on the tote.
#8 My Princess Jess won this race last year and did it off a similar layoff. She is a three time graded turf stakes winner sent out by the Tagg barn that is 14% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. She wintered in Florida but did not make a start, and figures to be ready to go off the bench again this year.

Wagering

WIN: #2 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8 / 2,3,6,7,8


Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

R1: #7 Six Gun Sheriff 15/1
R2: #5 Spicy Steve 8/1
R3: #4 Worthy Wager 10/1
R5: #1 Royal Straight 8/1
R7: #3 Mr. Vegas 10/1
R7: #8 Minnie Punt 8/1
R8: #2 Liberally 12/1
R9: #3 Dynamoor 12/1
R10: #12 Tudor King 15/1
R10: #1 Solar Panel 12/1

Good luck today!

CDX 7th (2:08)

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 118 LA 10-1
2 2 Phola Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Fantasia (GB) Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 118 L 5-1
4 4 Hooh Why Allen R D Jr Hoffman Mark 118 L 8-1
5 5 Tizaqueena Gomez G K Stidham Michael 118 LA 5-2
6 6 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 118 LA 3-1
7 7 Diamondrella (GB) Albarado R J Corrigan Jim 118 LA 8-1
8 8 Cure for Sale (ARG) Alvarado J Malek Raja 118 LA 15-1

Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)

Battagliaspicks 3-5-6

#3 Fantasia (GB)- Classy graded winner in Europe shipped over to join the Sheppard barn and there is no better turf trainer in the US. He missed by a neck after rallying late on a speed favoring track. He will score like a best bet should

Kentucky Derby-G1courtesy of The Professor

Selections are listed in order of preference
The Prof's personal odds-line follows each runner

2-Ice Box 5-1 - After an unfortunate injury to Eskenderaya, this race appears to be wide-open.na trained son of Afleet Alex has consistently earned some of the best sheet figs in this field.na is always dangerous in this race. Will use him on the bottom of the tri & super regardless. Terry Thompson rides.


Wagering Strategy
$1 Exacta wheel: 2-4 with 1-2-4-7-11-16-17 = $12
$1 Trifecta wheel: 2-4 with 1-2-4-7-11-16 with 1-2-4-7-11-16-17 = $50
$1 Superfecta wheel: 2 with 4-7 with 1-4-7-11-16-17 with 1-4-7-11-16-17 = $40

Dan Nowak

There is a 70 percent chance for rain-thunderstorms for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs Saturday with the possibility of two inches of rain falling.na-trained horse.

Backtalk (50-1) – Is he this year’s Mine That Bird long shot (50-1) who won the Derby last year? Has two wins at Churchill Downs and two wins over sloppy tracks but has struggled beyond a mile.

Homeboykris (50-1) – The Joe Torre-owned horse has a proven trainer but the nine-week layoff and outside post is not a good combination.

Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – He had a solid workout in the mud at Churchill Downs but has raced primarily on synthetic surfaces. This post will pose a big problem.

Race day advice: This race should produce huge payoffs, especially with the rain in the forecast. While most of the horses have at least one item that can compromise their chance for a win, Awesome Act looks solid in every way. He has trained well at Churchill Downs, has a solid jockey in Julian Leparoux and showed a strong late kick in the Gotham Stakes. Ignore his third place in the Wood Memorial where he had a terrible trip.

Picks: 1. Awesome Act, 2. Super Saver, 3. Ice Box and if it does not rain I would drop Super Saver out and replace him with Jackson Bend. My plan is to play several 4-horse or 5-horse trifecta keys with Awesome Act or Super Saver on top with combinations underneath that include Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney’s Candy, American Lion, Mission Impazible and Dublin.

Wizard

136th Running of the KY Derby

Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000.na D Wayne/Thompson T J)

I feel I have a good read on Dublin, and that is that I don’t like him much in the Derby.na decided to keep Dublin at Oaklawn to prepare him for the Grade 2 Rebel.na entered him in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.na, who has won four Derbys, rather than the horse himself. But the most I will be playing him is underneath when I press the ALL button.

(6) STATELY VICTOR (Maker Michael J/Garcia A)

Lit up the board at 40-1 in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland when he rallied from dead last through stretch to blow by the field and win by 4-1/4 lengths. Off his prior 7 starts, Stately Victor never a ran a race which would entice you to run to the window and bet him that day. He had only one win to that point, and that was his maiden victory in his second start on grass at Saratoga. I remember selecting him that day off his solid turf and distance pedigree. Since that win back in September, Stately Victor had not hit the board until the Blue Grass.

The million dollar question is how did Stately Victor win the race and earn enough money to be in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby? The Wizard has a possible explanation. As a handicapper, how do you make an educated decision on what horses can run well on dirt and synthetic? What about grass horses switching to Polytrack , Pro-Ride or Tapeta? Can these horses improve switching to these surfaces, or not? These questions often have no definitive answers. Many people have said that horses that run well on grass can run well on synthetic. Some mention that there are horses that have the right pedigree for it. When I research the results of these races, I can see some correlation, but not enough evidence to confirm this. Stately Victor illustrates this confusion. Prior to his win in the Blue Grass, he had run on grass 3 times, synthetic once, and dirt 3 times. Stately Victor did have an impressive grass victory in his turf debut, but with the exception of a second place finish in an off the grass race in his debut, his other 2 dirt starts were awful. As a matter of fact, he was beaten on dirt at Churchill Downs when last of seven at 1-5 odds. He even raced on what looked to be his preferred surface, grass, in his last start prior to the Blue Grass, where he did not run well. Can you say the grass to synthetic surface moved him up? Does he have the pedigree to move up on the surface? This is what I mean, to illustrate the very difficult task we have as handicappers.

Stately Victor’s trainer Mike Maker wins a very high % of races wherever he goes. He has already won a Breeders’ Cup race and several stakes events, so it’s obvious the trainer will pose no obstacle in having him in peak form. In the case of Stately Victory, I cannot envision him winning the Derby, and it would be a bit of a stretch to get him in the money. There is very little indication he can be effective at this level on dirt. Churchill is a quirky surface. Horses either handle it or don’t. In his one start over it, he was awful, in a spot where he should have romped.

(12) CONVEYANCE (Baffert Bob/Garcia Martin)

Conveyance is one of two Baffert entrants in the Derby. The much more fancied Lookin For Lucky is the other. Conveyance will not be too difficult to pick out from the other 19, as his style of racing is one-dimensional. Go to the lead and play catch me if you can. They will catch him, it’s just a matter of when. Conveyance was a perfect 2 for 2 as a juvenile and then returned as a 3 year old to win back to back Grade 3 stakes, one at Santa Anita and the second at Oaklawn in his first dirt start, running his unbeaten streak to four. Baffert then decided to ship Conveyance to Sunland Park for Sunland Park Derby, which was supposed to be easy pickins, as evidenced by his 3-5 odds. This stake was elevated to Grade 3 status this year as a result of Mine That Bird winning this same race before his upset victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Conveyance was making his first start beyond a mile at Sunland but got a great set up to go wire to wire if he could stay the distance, as there wasn’t much other early speed signed on. He could not stay the distance, as recent maiden winner Endorsement blew by him in the final furlong to draw off by 3 widening lengths. This does not bode well for his chances of handling serious pace pressure in the Derby going an additional 1/8 of a mile. Conveyance is very likely to fold as the field turns for home.

(15) DISCREETLY MINE (Pletcher Todd A/Castellano J J)

No trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby has had more entrants in one year than Todd Pletcher. You can add Discreetly Mine to this list. There are several horses in the field I feel I have a handle on. He is one of them. And The Wizard does not like his chances to win, or even to hit the board.

Discreetly Mine has won two races. He broke his maiden easily sprinting over a wet track at Saratoga. Even though he followed it up with second place finishes in the Grade 2 Futurity and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont Park, Discreetly Mine gave me every indication that he had distance limitations.

As a 2 year old, he was trained by Stanley Hough, but was transferred over to Todd Pletcher for his 3 year old campaign. Discreetly Mine was a troubled fourth in a $100,000 stake in the slop at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs. Pletcher then shipped him to the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2 Risen Star, a race in which he would be faced with two obstacles. Discreetly Mine was being asked to go 2 turns for the first time and he had never won over a dry surface before. He could not have had a better set up in that race as the lone speed from a good inside post. Discreetly Mine was able to slow the pace down, and had enough left to hold on for the victory. Even though he passed two important tests, it did nothing to change my opinion of him. My suspicions would be confirmed when Discreetly Mine ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27. He never did get the lead and instead chased a slow pace in second. In the stretch Discreetly Mine had every chance to gain on the leaders, but had no punch late, fading slowly to finish a disappointing fourth in what I felt was one of the weakest Louisiana Derbys I had ever seen.

Pletcher elected not to run Discreetly Mine in another Derby prep, so he returns off more than a 2 month layoff. I don’t like that one bit for a horse who will find 1-1/4 miles too far to be effective in the stretch. The only way I am using Discreetly Mine is when I punch the ALL button.

(8) DEAN'S KITTEN (Maker Michael J/Albarado R J)

Son of turf champ Kitten’s Joy is in this race only because he won a depleted version of the G2 Lanes End on a synthetic track at Turfway Park on March 27. Prior to that, he had done virtually nothing in graded stakes. He’s never raced on a dry dirt track, and in fact his only prior start on ‘real dirt’ was a horrible performance in an off-the-turf event at Belmont Park last October 4. I finish in the top half of this field would rank as a big success for this colt.

(18) BACKTALK (Amoss Thomas M/Mena M)

Son of near Triple Crown winner Smarty Jones was very precocious, winning his first three career starts. They were all sprints, and two of them were graded stakes, including the G3 Bashford Manor over this track. However, as the distances increased, Backtalk’s effectiveness decreased, and his only good race in four starts at 7F or beyond was a hard-earned win over a sloppy track in a minor stakes race Feb 26. I have the utmost of respect for his trainer, Tom Amoss, but must wonder why he has this sprinter entered in the Kentucky Derby.

(19) HOMEBOYKRIS (Dutrow Richard E/Dominguez R A)

Richard Dutrow Jr. scored a Kentucky Derby victory with Big Brown in 2008 and will attempt to win again this year with Homeboykris. Good luck to his connections. There is no reason to believe that Homeboykris has any chance to win, or even finish in the money. He qualifies for the Derby based primarily on his win in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont. Homeboykris has raced 3 times since. He was a well beaten fifth in the Grade 2 Remson to close out his 2 year old campaign, then returned 2 months later, making his 3 year old debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He dueled from the start, and then faded in the final 1/8 of a mile. His final prep for the Derby was in a strong allowance race on February 27, where he ran an improved race, finishing second to a quality rival in Radiohead. Homeboykris has not raced since. He will enter the Derby off more than a 2 month layoff. 5 of his 6 starts have been at a mile or less. He has one race at 1-1/8 miles, but he showed that day that the distance was a further than what he wants. Now Homeboykris will have to travel 1-1/4 miles against far tougher than what he has faced before. The layoff also poses a major obstacle. If I owned him, you can be sure that his next start would be in a race I felt he could win, so that Homeboykris could gain back the confidence he had as a 2 year old.

(10) PADDY O'PRADO (Romans Dale/Desormeaux K J)

Bred top and bottom for turf, Paddy has raced once on dirt, and that was over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in his career debut. He ran poorly, but turned things around a month later when moving to turf. He was a distant second in the weak G1 Blue Grass last time out, but that was on a synthetic track, not dirt. Can’t see him as any kind of factor in this race.


(9) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Barba Alexis/Rosario Joel)

Bred top and bottom for sprints, this colt has done surprisingly well running in routes thus far, including a turf stakes win for his only victory to date. He’s never raced on a dirt track, although he does have good breeding for a wet dirt surface, but this is still a negative, as first time dirt horses are often affected by the increased amount of kickback that they get, compared to their races on turf or on synthetic tracks. Make Music For Me really has not improved this year over his 2yo form, and I have difficulty seeing him as any kind of real factor in this race.

Wagering Strategy
We'll bet our top selection ICE BOX across the board, leaning a bit more on the win spot. We'll key both him and LOOKIN AT LUCKY on top of an exacta part-wheel and also on top of a trifecta part-wheel. We'll also back up the exactas with a box of the top two and third choice SIDNEY'S CANDY, who is quite capable of winning.

* A win, place, and show bet on (2)ICE BOX

* Exacta part-wheel 1-2 over 1-2-3-4-11-14-20 = $24 for a $2 wager

* Press with an exacta box of 1-2-20 = $24 for a $4 wager

* Trifecta part-wheel: 1-2 over 1-2-4-14-20 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-11-13-14-16-17-20 = $88 for a $1 wager

Big Al

Kentucky Derby winner

Lookin at Lucky

1st (Post time 10:30)
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance Optional Claiming ($100,000) | Purse: $52,500

Prg.na D Wayne 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Zimmer Borel C H Byrne Patrick B 125 Blk-On L 7-2
4 4 Spicer Leparoux J R Nafzger Carl A 118 L 3-1
5 5 Mo'millions Creed B Stevens Lowell T 113 5 LA 20-1
6 6 L.na D Wayne 120 LA 7-2
5 5 Sister Resistor Bejarano R Dutrow, Jr.na D Wayne 118 LA 20-1
6 6 Hull Bridgmohan S X Romans Dale 118 LA 12-1
7 7 Warrior's Reward Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 124 L 4-1
8 8 Ventana Gomez G K Baffert Bob 122 LA 8-1
9 9 Atta Boy Roy Borel C H Lund Valorie 118 LA 20-1
10 10 Cool Coal Man Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 12-1
11 11 Kensei Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 10-1
12 12 Musket Man Dominguez R A Ryan Derek S 118 LA 3-1
13 13 Accredit Garcia Alan Maker Michael J 118 LA 20-1

Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min.na D Wayne 126 LA 12-1
18 18 Backtalk Mena M Amoss Thomas 126 L 50-1
19 19 Homeboykris Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr.na D Wayne 118 LA 15-1
3 3 Moe Man Castellano J J Wilkes Ian R 118 L 4-1
4 4 Easy to Please Me Nakatani C S Hendrickson Lori 118 LA 10-1
5 5 Angus Drive Lanerie C J Forster Grant T 118 L 15-1
6 6 Forest Coast Solis A Hanna Clark 118 LA 20-1
7 7 Imperial Pride Talamo J Hess R B Jr 118 L 9-2
8 8 Deets Albarado R J Stewart Dallas 118 L 8-1
9 9 Scary Good Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 3-1
10 10 Galientos Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 5-1
11 11 Royal Paddy Mojica R Jr Crawley Galen L 118 20-1
12 12 Mr Ruff McKee J Farmer - Hubbard J 124 L 30-1

Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta

Battagliaspicks 7-3-6-9

#7 Imperial Pride- Limehouse colt ran well on the SA surface finishing second twice even though he has no breeding for anything other then dirt. He gets his chance today and should payoff.

Now you know why I only give you a pick a day from these guys!

Horse racing is a tough game. If you get them all, post em all. I appreciate you running with the horse racing area. Battaglia is good for information and occasionally hits some big bombs.