It's almost that time of year again as we are just over 3 weeks away from the start of the WNBA season.

There were some organizational changes since last season ended as the team from Detroit has moved to Tulsa with Nolan Richardson as head coach, as well the Sacramento team folded and the majority of players were taken in their dispersal draft.

Once the season starts I'll be posting all my plays throughout the season in this thread.

Until then I'll be posting various statistics from last season, my main focus will be the number of possessions teams get in a game and work with their efficiency both on the offensive and defensive end.

Regular Season starts May 15th

Really looking forward to a profitable season.

The pre-season has finally begun, it's always interesting to see how many minutes these coaches give the younger players.

with the womens game a fair amount of the starters play over in Europe during the WNBA "off season" so the majority are already in shape and don't get many (if any) minutes in the pre-season.

I haven't forgotten about posting the stats from last year, I've been a tad lazy plus I'm not sure if there is enough interest to upload the spreadsheets to google documents or just copy/paste certain information.

I'll have a final decision within the next couple of days.. 2 weeks tonight from the start of the season

Looking forward to your selections. Will you be giving a breakdown of each team like you did last year?

For sure, should have the Eastern Conference preview up tonight or tomorrow at the latest and hopefully have the Western Conference up by Wednesday. Will have the major transactions each team made in the off season along with what to expect in the 2010 season

This is a screen of one of the pdf files from wnba.com I also have the breakdown of these categories in home/away format in a .xls (spreadsheet) file, I will post that if necessary



http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y132/FranchiseMW/MiscRankings.jpg

Eastern Conference preview to come.....

Relatively quiet off season other than the huge 3 team trade involving Cappie Pondexter. The Sacramento franchise is gone and Detroit has moved to Tulsa moving from the Eastern Conference to the Western Conference.. now both Conferences have 6 teams...

Eastern Conference Preview

Team: Atlanta Dream
Head Coach: Marynell Meadors, 3rd year been with team since inception 22-46 record
2009 Record:: 18-16, 2nd in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (6-11)


Major Additions:
Chanel Mokango (draft, 9th overall pick)
Kelly Miller (from Minnesota)
Dalma Ivanyi (from San Antonio)

Major Subtractions:
Michelle Snow (to San Antonio)

2010 Outlook:
The Dream were a nice story last season as they turned a 4-22 2008 season into the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference going 18-16. They played at a very fast pace as they were only 2nd to Phoenix in total # of possessions a game at 85. They dominated inside as they were the #1 team in the paint scoring an average of almost 41 a game. They also led the league with 13 fast break points/game.

The addition of Kelly Miller should provide veteran leadership at the guard position which will cut down the # of turnovers- the Dream was 2nd last to only Sacramento in opponents’ points off turnovers/game last season.

It should be another solid season for Atlanta as I see them contending for the #1 seed in the East.


Team: Chicago Sky
Head Coach: Steven Key, 3rd season with team 28-40 record
2009 Record:: 16-18, 5th in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (4-13)


Major Additions:
Shameka Christon (from New York)
Cathrine Kraayeveld (from New York)
Epiphanny Prince (draft, 4th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Candice Dupree (to Phoenix)
Katie Mattera (to New York)

2010 Outlook:

Anyone who read my posts last year knows I’m very high on this young Chicago team. At first I wasn’t sure about trading Dupree but I think Christon & Kravy will provide some a veteran presence that they really lacked last season. Inside Sylvia Fowles is a beast, but she struggled with fouls all season and as a result only played 692 minutes (678 on the bench). The trade with NY should give Chicago better perimeter defense which should allow Fowles more time to be dominant on court. I’m also a huge fan of Erin Thorn coming off the bench as well as bringing Kristi Toliver along gradually. It may take them a few weeks to gel together but I see Chicago being very competitive this season.


Team: Connecticut Sun
Head Coach: Mike Thibault 8th season with team, 143-95 record
Record: 16-18, 6th in Eastern Conference Home (12-5) Away (4-13)


Major Additions:
Kara Lawson (from Sacramento)
Tina Charles (draft, 1st overall pick)
Kelsey Griffin (draft, 3rd overall pick {from Minnesota})
Danielle McCray (draft, 7th overall pick)
Renee Montgomery (from Minnesota)

Major Subtractions:
Lindsay Whalen (to Minnesota)
Chante Black (to Tulsa)
Amber Holt (to Tulsa)


2010 Outlook:
It’s clear that the youth movement has begun in Connecticut, the big question is how effective will their rookies be this season. Tina Charles was the #1 overall pick, she won’t be as effective as Candace Parker in her rookie year but she should be more effective (and get more time) than last year’s #1 McCoughtry (Atlanta). Losing Whalen is obviously big, but I think they’ll miss Amber Holt even more. Holt missed the majority of last season with an injury (only played 380 minutes) but she seemed to be finding her groove as the season was ending both offensively and on the defensive end.

It will be a year of growing pains for Connecticut however Mike Thibault is definitely the right coach and depending on how effective the rookies are Connecticut could battle for a playoff spot.




Team: Indiana Fever
Head Coach: Lin Dunn, 3rd season with team 39-29 record
Record: 22-12, 1st in Eastern Conference Home (14-3) Away (8-9)


Major Additions:
Ashley Battle (from New York)
Jene Morris (draft, 11th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Tamecka Dixon (retirement)

2010 Outlook:
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Fever did not make any drastic changes to their roster and why should they? They lost in the finals to Phoenix last season but have a very good chance on getting back there this season. Arguably the best starting 5 in the WNBA returns in tact. The only possible concern for this team is age as 4 out the 5 are over 30 years old. It will be critical as Ashley Battle plays well off the bench as well, Briann January needs to continue to improve as she enters her 2nd full season.. The health of Tameka Catchings is always a concern but provided she’s ready to go it the Eastern Conference is once again Indiana’s for the taking.


Team: Washington Mystics
Head Coach: Julie Plank, 2nd season with team 16-18 record
Record: 16-18, 4th in Eastern Conference Home (11-6) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Katie Smith (from Tulsa)
Jacinta Moore (draft, 6th overall pick)

Major Subtractions:
Alana Beard (out for season)

2010 Outlook:
Alana Beard going down is really going to hurt this team, I just don’t see where the scoring is going to come from. The signing of Katie Smith would be more impressive if this was 2004 and not 2010. Not sure how many minutes the soon-to-be 36 year old will play. Lindsay Harding is a turnover machine which is why Washington was tied 2nd last in the opponents points off turnovers/game at 18. Unless the whole team steps up to fill in Beard’s ~20 points a game it’s going to be a very long season in Washington.

Team: New York Liberty
Head Coach: Anne Donovan 1st full season as HC, took over during last season 7-10 record
Record: 13-21, 6th place in Eastern Conference Home (9-13) Away (8-9)


Major Additions:
Cappie Pondexter (from Phoenix)
Nicole Powell (Sacramento, dispersal draft)
Kelly Mazzante (from Phoenix)
Taj McWilliams (from Tulsa)
Katie Mattera (from Chicago)

Major Subtractions:
Shameka Christon (to Chicago)
Cathrine Kraayeveld (to Chicago)

2010 Outlook:

I left NY until last because I really have no clue what to expect from the Liberty this season. No doubt Cappie Pondexter has been great the past few seasons, but the thing is she was playing in the same backcourt as Diana Taurasi. I can’t believe NY will be successful if they try to mimic Phoenix and play the run and shoot style, I don’t think they have enough firepower. Cappie was fantastic as the 2nd option on the floor but whether or not she can carry a team remains to be seen. Also Liberty head coach Anne Donovan has already accepted the Seton Hall womens basketball job which she will start in August, this may be a lame duck season in NY and for that reason I just can’t buy into the hype. They may battle for a playoff spot but anything other than that- I’ll believe it when I see it.

Will have the Western Conference up Tuesday or Wednesday.

Only 13 days until tipoff

Good stuff !!! Can't wait to rack the rim with some trim LOL

I fixed your picture so you could see it better as well.

good stuff thanks for fixing that.. no matter how bad of a day I've had that picture always gets a silly smile out of me


Just want to explain the plus/minus data set here because I talk about it in the Western Conference preview which will be up shortly.


The plus/minus category takes the difference in points for and against when the player is on the floor compared to when they are on the bench...

To use Sue Bird as an example as she was ranked #1 in the 2009 season

Sue Bird (+16.7).............ON FLOOR: (74.7 - 69.2) (NET +5.5)...........ON BENCH (64.1 - 75.3) (NET 11.2) so the 5.5 + 11.2 = 16.7


Here are the top 5 from last season (player must play at least 300 minutes to make this list)......

Sue Bird, Seattle Storm (+16.7) ............ON (74.7 -69.2).......BENCH (64.1 - 75.3)

Lindsay Harding, Washington (+16.1).........ON (76.5 - 75.5)......BENCH (66.4 - 81.4)

Tameka Catchings, Indiana Fever (+15.4).....ON (76.9 - 70.5)......BENCH (69.4 - 78.4)

Katie Douglas, Indiana Fever (+13.6)........ON (76.8 - 70.0)......BENCH (71.2 - 78.0)

Tameka Johnson, Phoenix Mercury (+13.4)......ON (94.8 - 86.6).....BENCH (85.2 - 90.2)


Now these #'s are a wonderful to have but they have to be used wisely. For example Catchings' & Douglas' numbers are much more impressive to me than Lindsay Harding, to me it means the Washington bench is extremely weak defensively. When you look at Sue Bird it's clear how important she is on both sides of the ball for Seattle.

I actually have the #'s for every player who played last season

WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Team: Tulsa Shock (formerly Detroit Shock)
Head Coach: Nolan Richardson, 1st year with team
2009 Record: 18-16, 3rd in Eastern Conference Home (11-6) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Shanna Crossley (from San Antonio)
Marion Jones (yes seriously)
Chante Black (from Connecticut)
Amber Holt (from Connecticut)

Major Subtractions:
Deanna Nolan? (Apparently taking the year off)
Cheryl Ford? (still a free agent no desire to play in Tulsa)
Crystal Kelly (to San Antonio)
Katie Smith (to Washington)
Taj McWilliams (to New York)

2010 Outlook:
The Tulsa Shock may be in for a very rough season. Deanna Nolan and Cheryl Ford were the heart and soul of this team the past few seasons, neither are currently under contract and it seems neither will be for this upcoming season. Their signing of Marion Jones is a nice PR move but will add nothing on the court, I’m a fan of Amber Holt but she certainly isn’t enough to carry this team. Plenette Pierson was a nice option off the bench in 2008 but missed last season with an injury and I have huge doubts that she can enter the starting lineup and play 30+ minutes a game.. Guard Shavonte Zellous is a train wreck, she has no problem taking 25 shots a game but the problem is she only makes 5 of them. In summary, nice PR moves with Richardson as coach and Marion Jones but it’s all fluff no substance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win less than 13 games this season.



Team: Minnesota Lynx
Head Coach: Cheryl Reeve, 1st season with team
Record: 14-20, 5th in Western Conference Home (9-8) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Lindsay Whalen (from Connecticut)
Rebekkah Brunson (Sacramento, dispersal draft)
Monica Wright (draft, 2nd overall)
Hamchetou Maiga-Ba (from Sacramento)


Major Subtractions:
Tasha Humphrey (to San Antonio)
Kelly Miller (to Atlanta)
Latoya Pringle (to LA)
Roneeka Hodges (to San Antonio)
Renee Montgomery (to Connecticut)


2010 Outlook:
The Minnesota Lynx were dealt a crushing blow after a 2-0 start last season as their star Seimone Augustus went down and missed the remainder of the season. The bad news for Minnesota is she just had another surgery last week the good news is she shouldn’t miss much time- and she might even be ready for opening night. Candice Wiggins on the other hand also had surgery and will miss ~4 weeks.

Assuming Augustus can come back healthy I think Minnesota is going to be a very good team this season, home-town girl Lindsay Whalen is exactly who they need to run this offense, they are very strong offensively and have weapons inside and outside who can score. However they will have to improve defensively as their opponents had an efficiency of 103% (points/possession). However The addition of Brunson inside should do exactly that. My boldest prediction is I believe Minnesota can contend for the #1 seed in the West.


Team: LA Sparks
Head Coach: Jennifer Gillom 1st season as head coach taking over for Michael Cooper
2009 Record:18-16 Home (11-6) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Andrea Riley (draft, 8th overall pick)
Ticha Penicheiro (from Sacramento)
LaToya Pringle (from Minnesota)

Major Subtractions:
Lisa Leslie (retirement)

2010 Outlook:
The LA Sparks are a big question mark to me. Candace Parker is great but I have doubts about the rest of this team. Lisa Leslie retired leaving DeLisha Milton-Jones and Tina Thompson as the backup scoring options which is fine but both are over 35 years old, I’m a huge fan of Andrea Riley and followed her career at Oklahoma State but I can’t imagine her having too much of an impact for the Sparks this season. They are going to be a defense first team and play at a relatively slow tempo, the signing of Penicheiro is a perfect fit for that. They have enough veteran leadership that they’ll probably land a playoff spot but it won’t be all glitz and glam in LA this season.


Team: San Antonio Silver Stars
Head Coach: Sandy Brondello 1st season with team
2009 Record: 15-19 Home (10-7) Away (5-12)


Major Additions:
Jayne Appel (draft, 5th overall pick)
Tasha Humphrey (from Minnesota)
Roneeka Hodges (from Minnesota)
Crystal Kelly (from Tulsa)
Michelle Snow (from Atlanta)

Major Subtractions:
Ann Wauters (taking the year off)
Shanna Crossley (to Tulsa)
Dalma Ivanyi (to Atlanta)


2010 Outlook:
It’s a new look Silver Stars team and it may take them a while to gel but when they do I expect them to return to their 2008 form where they went to the finals. Losing Ann Wauters is huge as she is a defensive force, they hope that 6’5 draft pick Jayne Appel and newly acquired Crystal Kelly will fill that void and keep their rebounding and inside presence strong, the offence will once again through Becky Hammon. Sophia Young will continue to improve on her way to becoming a star. The addition of Hodges and Humphrey gives them credible 3 point shooters. I expect a big turnaround from their 15-19 season as 20+ wins isn’t out of the question.


Team: Phoenix Mercury
Head Coach: Corey Gaines 39-29, 1 WNBA championship
2009 Record: 23-11 Home (12-5) Away (11-6)


Major Additions:
Candice Dupree (from Chicago)
Ashley Paris (from Sacramento)

Major Subtractions:
Cappie Pondexter (to New York)
Kelly Mazzante (to New York)
Le’Coe Willingham (to Seattle)


2010 Outlook:
Life without Cappie begins for the defending WNBA champs but the good news for them is they still have MVP Diana Taurasi. Dupree should fit in nicely with the Phoenix run and gun system. DeWanna Boner will have a larger role this season but I expect the 2nd year player out of Auburn to thrive with the added minutes. Phoenix should be able to grab a playoff spot relatively easily we’ll have to see just how high that seed will be.


Team: Seattle Storm
Head Coach: Brian Agler 3rd season with team, 44-26.
2009 Record: 20-14 Home (13-4) Away (7-10)


Major Additions:
Le’Coe Willingham (from Phoenix)
Alison Lacey (draft, 10th overall)

Major Subtractions:
Chelsea Newton (retirement)


2010 Outlook:
The Storm go as far as Lauren Jackson & Sue Bird will take them. Looking at last years stats, Sue Bird was #1 in the league in the plus/minus department and LJ was 9th. (plus/minus ratio is explained in the post above.) The nagging problem with LJ has been her injuries, between her back, ankle and foot last season she was only on the court for 842 minutes (562 on the bench). When she was on the court she was usually the best player on it.

One of the biggest concerns for Seattle last year was bench scoring. They ranked last at a pathetic 12 points a game from their bench. Even keeping in mind that LJ missed a considerable amount of time last season 12 points a game is beyond brutal. I refuse to make a prediction on the Storm because it comes down to the health of LJ, apparently from all reports I’ve read she’s healthy coming into this season but that can change in a flash and if she goes down it’s clear Seattle is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Well there you have it, a nice quick preview for the 2010 season. Really looking forward to taking some shots, only 11 days until tipoff

Preseason Results thus far

Not including the games some of the teams have played against International teams, they are more of a fun shoot-around rather than a competitive game.

Sometimes WNBA preseason games are absolutely meaningless but at times things will happen that carry over to the regular season.

Seattle 77 Phoenix 58
Connecticut 86 Atlanta 79
Washington 65 New York 60
Indiana 69 Chicago 63
Chicago 74 Minnesota 65

Only a couple of things really stood out--Atlanta didn't play any of their starters while Connecticut used 14 players total but gave their starters a majority of the minutes.. Gardin, Walker, Tina Charles, Montgomery & Lawson were their starters and all played at least 21 minutes with Tina Charles getting 31.. Not sure what to make of the fact they only beat the Atlanta bench team by 7 points.. might be a rougher start than I first thought in Connecticut.

Also Lindsay Whalen got 32 minutes for Minnesota and all the healthy starters played huge minutes. I like the fact that Whalen got a full game in the backcourt with draft pick Wright. However I don't like they still lost by 9 against a Chicago team that didn't play their starters heavy minutes..

Again it's only 1 game and there is time to improve so I won't rush to judgement but definitely shaky starts for Conn & Minn.

Start of the regular season is just 7 days away!!

Lines out now from Pinnacle:

Sat 5/15 601 Los Angeles Sparks +4.5 -105 OVER 176 -102
11:00 AM 602 Phoenix Mercury -4.5 -105 UNDER 176 -108
Sat 5/15 603 Chicago Sky +3.5 -109 OVER 149.5 -105
12:35 PM 604 Connecticut Sun -3.5 -101 UNDER 149.5 -105
Sat 5/15 605 Washington Mystics +8 -109 OVER 150.5 -105
04:05 PM 606 Indiana Fever -8 -101 UNDER 150.5 -105
Sat 5/15 607 Minnesota Lynx +6 -102 OVER 167 -105
05:05 PM 608 Tulsa Shock -6 -108 UNDER 167 -105
Sat 5/15 609 Atlanta Dream +5 +100 OVER 169.5 -105
05:05 PM 610 San Antonio Silver Stars -5 -110 UNDER 169.5 -105

Nice to see lines up a whole day in advance, looking very hard at Minnesota, still want to run a few numbers before I make a play, as a couple of totals look a little fishy to me too, have to remember it's a marathon not a sprint though

back later tonight with some previews & plays

Just over 24 hours until tip off, it's getting exciting

Just a quick note about a trade that occurred Thursday, I didn't even get an alert about it until yesterday and I think it's definitely worth mentioning.

The Chicago Sky made a bold statement on Thursday evening when they sent projected starting PG Kristi Toliver to LA for nothing more than a draft pick in next years draft. That statement is that 1st round draft pick Epiphanny Prince is ready to start contribute to the team now.

LET THE SEASON BEGIN!

Saturday May 15th, 2010

Chicago Sky +2 -108 (1ST HALF) over Connecticut Sun (1 unit)..3:30 PM EST Tipoff

IMO the wrong team is laying points here, It's rebuilding time for Connecticut. Chicago comes in with a new look as well but much higher hopes for the season. The trade of Toliver is really big to me, it means they think Prince is ready to have a large impact for them-- reading through the notes she was a force in overseas during the past few months that could translate very well for them. Inside the big matchup is rookie Tina Charles vs Sylvia Fowles, I like Fowles a lot and she should be a dominant force - and hopefully stay out of foul trouble.

Another stat (although somewhat meaningless, it's still interesting) is Connecticut was 9-23-2 in the 1Q and 13-20-1 SU in the 2Q last season, there is a coaching advantage that Connecticut has which is why I think taking Chicago 1H is a better play. Thibault can make HT adjustments better than anyone and this is the type of game where Chicago could fall apart in the 4th Q so I'm happier with the +2 in the 1H.

Projeted HT score: Chicago 42 Connecticut 37.

No other plays at the moment, without Augustus I just can't take Minnesota .....

good luck & here's to a profitable 2010 WNBA SEASON!

is there some easy money to be made in the WNBA? i have seldomly bet it through the years.. should i be betting it more?

Unfortunately Nothing is easy. I will say that over the past few seasons WNBA lines have certainly been softer than other sports, but they have tightened up in the past few seasons.

It'll be a long grind and I hope to hit a groove by the middle of the season so there ideally there will be more plays as the season progresses.

good thing too since Chicago is down 14 in the 2ndQ, always a bitter feeling to start the season with a loss!

ytd 0-1 -1.08

Thursday May 20th, 2010 Yes I know that game is tomorrow

San Antonio Silver Stars +2 -103 over Tulsa Shock (1 unit)

getting this now as I expect this line to move closer to pk before tipoff, wrong team favoured IMHO. Will have an actual writeup later tonight

Just a quick note on the Minny/Seattle game tonight, my projected final is 82-69 for Seattle, line right now is Sea -10.5, 150 so no clear advantage here, I'm not risking any money on a game that will come down to whether or not Minnesota hits a 3 at the end of the game to cover There will be much better chances this season to make some money... good luck to anyone who plays it..

right now SA is down to +1.5 +100 at Pinny, I imagine it'll keep falling, really like SA in this spot to be honest if it wasn't so early in the season this would be a 2 unit play but I'm going to be strict as I can with my money management so only 1 unit it is.

(I haven't forgotten to explain why I like them so much but I'll do it when I get back home tonight, it's been a long day for me so far :P)

gl

Just a follow up to my previous post, as I said in my preview to the season I don't think Tulsa will reach double digit wins on the season, SA is easily the better team. Becky Hammon should have a field day against the Tulsa guards and I expect Sophia Young to dominate early and often, in all honesty I was prepared to lay 4 or 5 with SA here to be getting points is amazing to me but I certainly won't refuse them.

gl

Nice to pop the cherry with the first win in the wnba this season as SA won by 9.

2 games on the schedule tomorrow night, not a chance I'm going to touch Connecticut @ Atlanta, have no idea what to expect from either team, but the other game I think there might be a play on the ladies from New York...time will tell.

ytd 1-1 -0.08

Friday May 21st, 2010

New York Liberty +4 -112 over Washington Mystics (1 unit)

I'm a little upset with myself that I missed the +4.5 that I could have had last night but in all honesty I don't think I'll need any points with the ladies from NY tonight.

I think NY will push the pace and because of that I expect a lot of turnovers from the Washington backcourt. Inside I expect Taj McWilliams-Franklin and McCarville to at least hold their own against Melvin & Sanford in the paint. Washington is a bit of a surprise at 2-0 but I think they take their first defeat at the hands of Cappie & co. tonight!

gl!

1-2 -1.20

NY leads almost whole game and disappears in the 4thQ, typical WNBA style choke.

Looks like my luck is just as bad as last season. onto tomorrow.

I know it shouldn't bother me but these are the WNBA loses that really piss me off, they were covering literally the whole game--it was 61-61 and it's now 61-77 with 20 seconds to go.

I always find it difficult to find motivation the next day after a loss like this, might just take the weekend off.

I gotta stop following these online and just look at the score the next morning.

ok I'm through with my little temper tantrum, lets get back to winning some money.

ytd 1-2, -1.2

May 22nd, 2010

San Antonio Silver Stars pk -106 over Los Angeles Sparks

I think this line is a combination of LA getting a little too much respect and SA not getting enough. These two teams always seem to play each other close and I expect tonight will be a grind as well, but in the end SA has home court and a few more weapons on offense than LA does. Silver Stars win this by 4-6 points.

lets get back on the winning track!

gl

ytd 2-2 -0.2 units

Nice win with SA last night although they almost blew it in the 4th which may have caused me to go postal but luckily they came through with an 88-81 victory.

4 games on the schedule today but I don't have a play. Not sure what to expect from Washington @ Connecticut- Washington's bubble is going to burst eventually and it will probably be today but I can't in any way justify laying -3 with Connecticut.

Atlanta @ New York is another interesting matchup, Atlanta certainly has played very well so far this season but there is something about the home court that NY has that makes this a pass for me.

Chicago @ Indiana is a return match from their OT game last night, I am tempted to take Indiana -4 for the 1st half as I think they are starting to put it together but again it's way too early in the season to force a play

Tulsa @ Minnesota should be an up and down game as they played to 154 points in Tulsa last week, there is no question that Minnesota is the better team but laying 7 on them is not a situation I want to be in, especially in the WNBA where 4th Quarter 'collapses' happen too frequently especially with the bigger spreads...

so it seems I'll be on the Sidelines this sunday, no games on Monday then 2 on Tuesday night.

I can't resist this 2nd half play, it could be a major trap but at home I have to believe Indiana wins this game.

Indiana Fever -6 -105 over Chicago Sky (2nd half)

gl!

Nice win with Indiana yesterday.

Since 2H have such a small time window I'm going to keep that record separate.

PG = 2-2, -0.2
2H = 1-0, +1.0

ytd 3-2, +0.8 units


2 games on Tuesday, looking at my first total play.

ytd 3-2 +0.8 units

May 25th, 2010

Washington Mystics/Seattle Storm OVER 143 -107 {1 Unit}

This line opened at 147 and has been dropping ever since, doubt it will fall much more than this, think we see upwards of 150 scored tonight. Looking to get 78-80 posessions with about a combined 93% efficency and we'll get this over... just have to hope Washington doesn't throw up a < 10 point Q..

gl!

Nice win last night, took a large 4thQ but both teams did as I wanted and a total of 158 was scored.

ytd 4-2 +1.8

no games today but looking at the 2 tomorrow, right now Minnesota is getting 6.5 @ Connecticut, I think they may win that one straight up, still have a few stats to review before I pull the trigger there

in the other game Seattle is giving 3.5 @ Chicago, what is interesting here is Seattle play at home last night and now travels east to start their road trip, this has been a huge letdown spot for them before and I think it will be again, going to let the line move but looking at a play on Chicago just because of the travel spot Seattle is in...

I haven't made any official plays yet but will post when I do

ytd 4-2 +1.8

May 27th, 2010

Minnesota +6 -109 over Connecticut

Quite disappointed I missed +6.5 with Minnesota although I don't think I'll need any points tonight, also missed +4 with Chicago and don't feel confident enough to take them at +2.5 so only 1 play tonight, hopefully Minnesota comes through.

gl!

ytd 4-3 +0.71

Total embarrassment last night, Minnesota's defense is way worse than I had originally thought, Connecticut's Efficiency was 125% last night, that's the highest showing of any team, 13% higher than when Phoenix scored 110 points against Tulsa.. Best thing to do is forget about last night and move onto tonight

May 28th, 2010

Washington/LA UNDER 151.5 -103

I have this line between 143 and 145 so I think there is enough value to take the under, I really don't think LA will push the pace tonight and Washington should be more than happy to slow it down, figuring about 32 per quarter which allows for a 50+ point 4Q and we can still nab this under.. lets get it

gl

2H

San Antonio -5 -110 over NY

Think this is a very good bet, still think SA can cover the 6.5 game spread so getting them -2 is a sweet deal

gl

ytd 4-5 -1.42

Bad 0-2 day yesterday but I really don't feel either loss was a "bad play". San Antonio had their chances to beat NY but couldn't grab a defensive rebound to save their life as they were at <40% rebounding..

The loss on the Washington/LA under was a hard one as the tempo was slow- both teams only got 74 possessions but LA shot the ball much better than I expected them to (effective was over 52%).. even with that the game only went over by 6 points and it's the 48 point 3Q to blame for that.

in the end a loss is a loss, the goal is to learn something from each loss and move on.

2 games today but no feeling on either so I'll pass today and look ahead to Sunday.

ytd 4-5 -1.42

San Antonio -1.5 -104 over Seattle

Perhaps I'm over-valuing San Antonio early in the season but at home I think they can take care of Seattle today.

gl

down 32 in the 3rdQ.... yeah I'd say I've over-valued San Antonio quite a bit!

only thing I can do at this point is laugh, erase it from memory and come back strong in June!

ytd 4-6 -2.46

LA Sparks +5.5 -102 over Phoenix

To be honest I think LA is going to win SU tonight but taking the points as I think it will be very similar to their first game of the season where Phx hit 2 ft's with under 2 seconds to go to win the game by 1-- it'll be decided late so I'm taking the points

gl

adding:

LA Sparks +1.5 -109 over Phoenix 1st Quarter

So technically this becomes the first 2 unit play of the season but I'm okay with that, I think 1Q's are something I'm going to focus on more this season, (hopefully) there will be some value there.

LA is 4-1 in 1stQ's this season while Phoenix is 1-3-1 SU (1-4 spread) and 0-3 at home, I think just like opening night LA came come out with a strong start and have the lead at the end of the 1stQ.

gl!

Very nice double win last night, it's such a confidence boost to have a game go exactly how I thought it would, LA missed a shot with 3 seconds left that would have won it, they went back and forth all game and it was actually a very well played game.

Hopefully this is the start of a big winning streak, I could certainly use one.. back in a little while with today's plays.

ytd 6-6 -0.46

Washington Mystics -0.5, -120 over Atlanta 1ST QUARTER

Atlanta has come back down to earth after their amazing 6-0 start losing a road game at Seattle and then a pitiful showing last night at home against Chicago, now they are back on the road in Washington.

If we take an in depth look at Atlanta we see their 6-0 start was a bit of a smoke and mirrors act, they are 3-5 in the 1Q,3Q & 4Q this season with the 2Q being their strong at 5-2-1

I'm counting too on the travel factor tonight as Washington has been at home and waiting while Atlanta has gone from Seattle back home and now to Washington, I expect another slow start from Atlanta and hopefully Lindsay Harding doesn't turn it over 10 times in the 1st and when the smoke clears Washington will have the lead.

gl

2nd half play:

Tulsa Shock +2.5 -105 over Chicago 2ND HALF

think this should be a pk for the 2H, I think Tulsa will win the 4thQ and end up covering the 2H line

gl

Ugh. It appears the 2H system needs some work, 12-0 run to start the 4th by Chicago erases a solid 3Q effort by Tulsa.

Nice win with the Washington 1Q, took a 5-0 run in the last 2 minutes to get it but still a good sign for the rest of the season.

Couple games tomorrow pretty sure I'll have at least 1 play.

ytd 7-7 -0.51

ytd 7-7 -0.51

Connecticut Sun -3.5 -109 over San Antonio 1ST HALF

No Becky Hammon, no chance for San Antonio, Connecticut has sputtered in the 1stQ at home this season (2-2) so I prefer to play them first half, they should be up by 8 at halftime.

gl

Got lucky as Connecticut came out poorly, were down 18-10 at one point in the 1st, squeaked out a 34-30 1H win.

adding one more play for the late game tonight

Phoenix Mercury +1.5 -115 over Seattle 1ST QUARTER

This series is owned by the road team, Seattle played last night and I expect Phoenix to come out sharp and play a very solid 1Q, getting 1.5 is a bonus.

gl

ytd 8-8 -0.66

Phoenix doesn't even show up in the 1Q tonight, brutal.

ugh gotta stop splitting these plays, juice will eventually kill me.. Going to take a little break as there are no games on Monday or Wednesday, have some personal obligations on Tuesday so I'll be back on Thursday to hopefully make some money!

If you're out there lurking feel free to register and say hello

ytd 8-8 -0.66

Friday June 12

Atlanta pk +110 over New York {full game}

I expect Atlanta to be the fav by tipoff, they are the better team and will outlast NY tonight in MSG... might have another play once the 1Q's lines come out... there are 5 games tonight.

gl

Slow start for Atlanta but plenty of time for them to bounce back only down 6.

adding 1 first quarter play

Chicago Sky -1.5 -105 over Washington Mystics 1ST QUARTER

game tips in 35 minutes.. expecting a big early effort from the Sky tonight...

gl

figures the first time Chicago would lose a 1Q at home (4-0 coming into tonight) would be the 1 game I bet them.. looks like I should have taken a longer break.

ytd 8-10 -2.71

Sunday June 13th

both full games
===============

San Antonio +6 -101 over Atlanta
Indiana -5.5 -109 over Connecticut

gl

There are days where I wonder why I even bother.. it was 86-83 Atlanta after SA made a 3... they fouled and then it was 88-83, here are the final 25 seconds of the game

Team Timeout : Short 00:24.5
Team Timeout : Short 00:18.7
Hammon Driving Layup Shot: Missed Block: Bales (2 BLK) 00:11.8
Team Rebound 00:11.8
Lawson-Wade 3pt Shot: Missed 00:08.9
Snow Rebound (Off:2 Def:4) 00:07.6
Snow Turnover : Traveling (2 TO) 00:07.6
00:07.6 Team Timeout : Short
Lawson-Wade Foul : Personal (5 PF) 00:06.2
00:06.2 Lehning Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed
00:06.2 Team Rebound
00:06.2 Lehning Free Throw 2 of 2 Missed
00:03.9 Lehning Rebound (Off:1 Def:2)
00:01.9 Lehning Putback Layup Shot: Missed Block: Snow (6 BLK)
00:00.4 Lyttle Rebound (Off:3 Def:9)
00:00.4
[ATL 90-83] Lyttle Putback Layup Shot: Made (24 PTS)

first SA can't grab the rebound after Atlanta misses BOTH ft's and then instead of pulling the ball out and letting the clock run out Atlanta decides to keep shooting and scoring with half a second left to push the lead to 7 while I rip up my SA +6 ticket

what a bunch of BS.

Ended up with the split as Indy got the job done at home.. if only Atlanta had just hung onto the ball :P

ytd 9-11 -2.72

45% certainly not the start I wanted, couple bad breaks but I'm optimistic that I can get this season into the black as we approach July.

Have some interesting stats from the start of the season which I'll put up either tonight or tomorrow in the other wnba thread I've started in this forum.

No games on Monday or Wednesday, just 1 game {Atlanta @ Chicago} on Tuesday night so it will be a pretty light start to the week.

ytd 9-11 -2.72

Chicago Sky -3 -103 over Atlanta

Chicago seems to play to the level of their competition and I expect them handle the somewhat overrated Atlanta team on home court tonight.

gl!

Keep em coming !

ytd 9-12 -3.75

6/18
Seattle pk -101 over New York
Connecticut -1 -104 over Los Angeles

Never thrilled taking 2 road teams but both are better than their opposition, not surprised Seattle lost @ Indiana tonight but I expect them to bounce back well Friday night in NY... Connecticut has not played well on the road but this matchup favours them and I expect them to escape LA with a win.

enough of this losing BS, time to bury the books.

gl

Fucking about time that I got a lucky break, Connecticut was down 16 in the 3Q before a super 20-0 run to get right back in it. Nice to finally go 2-0 in a night, hopefully this is the start of a nice big run!

back in the morning with Saturdays plays.

ytd 11-12 -1.75

6/19

Washington -1.5 -107 over Chicago (1st QUARTER)

My only slight concern is Washington has had a week off and it's possible they come out rusty but this Chicago defense is weak as they've allowed their opponents to shoot 53%, 64% (that was against this Washington team) and 54% in their past 3 games, I expect Washington to do as they wish on offense and have a 5-8 point lead at the end of the 1Q.

gl

FUCK I knew I should have paid more attention to the fact WAshington was off a week, can't even find the fucking basket in the 1stQ already down 11.

ytd 11-13 -2.82

6/22

Minnesota +5.5 -107 over New York

gl

ytd 12-13 -1.82

nice win with Minny last night, 1 game at noon today but I honestly have no clue what's going to happen in it, Atlanta is an 11.5 point fav hosting Tulsa.. to be honest I think Tulsa could cover the 1H # of 6 but certainly not confident enough to make it a play

so I'll pass today and look ahead to tomorrow where LA goes to Washington.

Changed my mind

Tulsa +3 -109 over Atlanta 1ST QUARTER

Expecting the afternoon start to favour Tulsa here, Atlanta normally starts slow (3-10 in the 1Q SU this season) and getting 3 points is enough to take the road dog here... hopefully won't turn out to be a mistake.

gl!

Some days you should just stay in bed!

Ready to throw in the towel on these 1Q bets, going to shift focus back to full game lines.

ugh.

in for a penny in for a pound

2H Atlanta -6 -110

gl

No fucking excuse for today, original said Tulsa 1H and ended up making 2 other plays and both lost, instead of up 1 unit for the day down 2 + juice, fucking inexcusable.

ytd 12-15 -4.01

Minnesota +6.5 -108 over San Antonio

gl

-5.09

Going to take about a week or so off, this is embarrassing and frustrating.

ytd 12-16 -5.09

ok enough of this losing bullshit, took a couple of days off updated all spreadsheets, looked over the numbers, flipped a few coins and I'm ready to have a very profitable July.

Happy Canada Day btw..

Chicago -1.5 -103 over Connecticut

Fowles vs. Charles round 3 tonight, game should be pretty tight expecting Chicago to get a huge W at home to get back in the Eastern Conference Playoff Race.

ytd 13-16 -4.09

Still unbeaten in July!

Phoenix -3.5 -110 over New York

I got this at a slow moving out but I would honestly lay up to -5 in this spot.. it's sitting at -4 pretty much across the board at the moment. NY is the perfect team for Phoenix to break out of their slump against, I'm not usually a fan of going with the team that has lost 6 in a row but Cappie is going to get a rude welcome back home to Phoenix, expecting a 10-15 point win here by the Mercury.

gl

Cappie getting ejected in the 3rd certainly didn't hurt but PHX was up 8 at halftime and even if they don't eject her I still think Phoenix covers!

ytd 14-16 -3.09

slowly working my way back, no games tomorrow or Monday so back on Tuesday with (hopefully) more winners!

ytd 14-16 -3.09

July 6th

Phoenix -1.5 over LA

Game isn't until Tuesday night but Don't think this line will last, Phoenix will be too much for this injured LA team.

gl

ytd 15-16 -2.09

Now we're cooking with gas. 3 in a row to start July, hopefully this is only the beginning of a big streak.

Passing on Wednesday as the only game is Connecticut @ Atlanta, honestly don't have a clue what is going to happen in that game so the best thing to do is leave it alone.. will be interested to see what the line opens at on the San Antonio @ Minnesota game that goes on Thursday night...Line should be out around 11am Wednesday morning.

gl

ytd 15-16 -2.09

game isn't until Thursday 7/8 but the line may continue to climb

Minnesota -3 -105 over San Antonio

Apparently I missed -2 on Minnesota but hopefully that won't matter, home court should make the difference in this one.

gl

23 point home win by Minnesota as my streak goes to 4 and I finally get back to 50%. This was exactly the start to July that I needed.

ytd 16-16 -1.09

2 days off as I never bother with the allstar event, but Chicago goes to NY on Sunday and I'm going to be ready for that one!

lets keep the streak alive.

ytd 16-16 -1.09

Game is on 7/11

Chicago +3 -105 over New York

Going to fade NY until they give me a reason not to, Chicago has been playing much better lately, I'm willing to look past their last lost to Indiana and think they can come out strong get a much needed road victory in NY on Sunday afternoon

gl

Got a bit of a bad luck push as Chicago was dominating the whole game, led by 9 at half and 6 at the end of the 3Q then found themselves lucky to push.

at least it wasn't a loss!

Have no opinion on the LA/Tulsa game tomorrow as I literally couldn't care less about that game, might have something for Wednesday.

ytd 16-16 -1.09

Bunch of afternoon games today, just playing one of them

Connecticut +7.5 -108 over Indiana

Think this one is going to go down to the wire, will gladly take 7.5 points

gl

7.5 point road dog and they WIN OUT RIGHT

5-0-1 now in July and we're not even half way through the month

Let the good times roll

ytd 17-16 -0.09

Game is 7/15

NY Liberty -1.5 -105 over Washington

Yes I know I'm a huge critic of NY but I think this is a very good spot for them, expect Washington to be rusty which should allow NY to play out in front and hang on in the 4Q for a win.

gl

6-0-1 in July... it's about damn time ytd 18-16 +0.91

3 games on Friday but nothing peaks my interest so I'll take the day off and come back and continue this streak on Saturday!

ytd 18-16 +0.91

Game is on 7/17

Getting this now as it's starting to move at some places

Minnesota +4.5 -108 over Seattle &
Minnesota PK +175
both are 1 unit each

Minnesota looking healthy and playing together for the first time in a while, Seattle off a triple OT win in Phoenix they aren't the youngest team in the league may have a hiccup on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota.

gl

ytd 19-17 +0.91

Broke even yesterday as Minnesota couldn't hold 7 point lead at the end of the 3rd and ended up losing by 2.. tough break but at least they covered so it ends up being a wash... sure would have liked to have nailed the +175 though

Just one game for today, don't feel super confident with it but I'm going to take the shot anyways

San Antonio -7 -108 over LA

I think this game will play out either with SA losing SU or winning by double digits, my only concern is whether or not SA has quit on the season after losing last game to Tulsa... They are still in the playoff hunt so I have to believe they're going to come with a full effort which should be enough to put away this terrible LA Sparks team

gl!

SA with the nice 10 point win

On a very nice and much needed 8-1 run in July... hope to continue it on Tuesday!

ytd 20-17 +1.91

ytd 20-17 +1.91

Haven't had any plays over the past week, just one for tonight..

Chicago -4.5 -104 over NY

gl

ytd 20-18 +0.87

7/29

Minnesota PK +330 over Phoenix

Probably doesn't happen but at +330 I'm willing to take a fukkin shot

ytd 20-19 -0.13

Had a rough personal past 2 weeks, things have been straightened out so lets get back to winning some cash before this WNBA season ends!

Atlanta +6 -105 over Indiana

I think this is going to be a very close game that is decided in the final minutes, Atlanta has proven they can hang in there and I expect them to get the cover tonight.

gl

Called the Atlanta game bang on as Indiana made the winning 2 free throws with 3 seconds left, doesn't get much closer than that

ytd 21-19 +0.87

8/7

Minnesota +7 -109 over Chicago

Similar to tonight's game I think this one will be pretty tight, I see no reason why Chicago is laying 7 here, Minnesota could win it SU.

gl

Beautiful 2nd half comeback by Minnesota and they end up winning straight up in overtime!

On a nice run going 10-3.. Considering I started 12-16 it's very nice to be on the positive side of things, hope to finish out the final few weeks with a fury

ytd 22-19 +1.87

Lets keep the good times rolling with 2 plays for Sunday

8/8

Phoenix -4 -104 over Indiana
Minnesota PK +120 over NY

Indiana in a bad spot as they have to travel after last night's game out to a Phoenix team that has been at home for a while and is ready to pounce.

Not really sure why NY is favoured when the game is in Minnesota, I know Minny played today and has to travel but I still think they can handle this NY squad and definitely not passing up +120 on them.

gl

Keep it going!

No worries Freak, I'm too stubborn to quit The WNBA is so disjointed sometimes there are only a few games a week and that's why I go days without posting, they never play on Mondays and occasionally play on Wednesdays, very frustrating to be honest.

ytd 22-21 -0.17

Just one play for today;

Atlanta -5-5 -104 over New York

Expect it to be pretty close early on but Atlanta should be able to pull away in the second half

gl

ytd 22-22 -1.21

This fukkin New York team is gonna be the death of me

Phoenix PK +198 over New York

meh.

gl

What's going on here. Nothing in 10 days!!!

Let's win man!

No Worries I'm still here, barely but I'm here!

ytd 22-23 -2.21

Coming in to the playoffs on a bit of a slide but hope to turn that around in the playoffs,

WNBA PLAYOFFS

Future Bets- To Win it all 2/3 units on each
Indiana Fever +900
Phoenix +750

I'll be honest, I think this is Seattle's championship to lose, *however* I think Indiana can come out of the East and if they do it will set up a nice hedge, the only competition for Seattle in the West is Phoenix so at +750 it makes sense to take a shot with them.

SERIES PRICES

Atlanta +175 over Washington

Indiana +140 over New York

At worst I'm hoping to split these as I think Indiana is a very good play at plus money. I'm not thrilled risking money on Atlanta but they are streaky enough where they could easily bounce Washington from the playoffs. With the East being so wide open, anything can happen so I'll take both dogs and see what shakes out.

IN The West, If you have money to risk I think Phoenix & Seattle are basic locks, I just don't ever feel comfortable having -500 or -1000 out there, it's just not enough reward for the risk especially on a future play where any injury could drastically change things.

Regular plays

Atlanta +5 -105 over Washington

let the playoffs begin!

gl

ytd 23-23 -1.21

Nice win with Atlanta plus the points last night and it's a great start to the series bet, hope they can put them away next time out.

for 8/26

Indiana +3.5 -105 over New York

gl