With the NCAA tournament moving into the Sweet 16 round on Thursday, then the Elite 8 round on Saturday, here are some trends you’ll want to use this weekend as the field narrows further. Plus, stay tuned throughout the next few days as we take a closer look at each of the games. Included in this piece are round-by-round notes from our friend at Playbook.com, Marc Lawrence.

Sweet 16 Round


The Sweet 16 round is typically the end of the run for most “Cinderella” teams. Better seeds & favorites have only lost six of the 32 games in this round over the L4 years. They are 10-6 ATS the last two years.

Since ‘03 there have been 20 favorites of 5-1/2 points or more in the Sweet 16 round. Those teams are 20-0 SU & 12-7-1 ATS (63%), holding their opponents to just 64.4 PPG while winning by 12.1 PPG.

#1 seeds are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 round over the last two years. However, they are just 5-5 SU & 2-7-1 (22%) in their L10 of this round when favored by 5-points or less.

In the last seven games where two teams seeded #6 or worse met in the Sweet 16, the lesser seed is 6-1 SU & ATS (86%).

Double-digit seeded teams are just 2-10 SU & 4-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 round since ’03.

Oddsmakers have provided a good blueprint on totals in one sense in the Sweet 16, as in games with posted totals of 128 points or less, UNDER the total is 11-2 (85%) since ’99.

Marc Lawrence's Sweet 16 Notes
• #1 Seed favs < 11 pts off BB SUATS wins are 10-2 ATS

• #2 Seeds are 12-5 ATS vs opponents off a SU dog win

• #4 Seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins

• #5 Seeds are 1-4 ATS vs foes off BB SUATS wins

• #6 Seeds off a DD SU win are 2-6 ATS

• #9 or higher seed dogs > 2 pts are 3-10 ATS

• Favorites off a SU win of 30 > pts are 4-0 ATS

• Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 10-2 ATS

• Underdogs who scored < 65 pts last game are 7-3 ATS

• Underdogs off BB dog wins are 2-9 ATS

• Underdogs who scored 85 > pts last game are 2-7 ATS

Best Team SU & ATS records in this round
Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS

Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round
Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.

Best Conference ATS records in this round
Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big 10: 14-5.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 0-5 as favs < 7 pts, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as favs 10 < pts, ACC: 3-11 as favs 8 < pts.

Elite 8 Round (Quarterfinals)


Lesser seeds hold an overall advantage in this round since 1998, going 29-17-2 ATS (63%).

Since eight straight covers by lesser seeds in the Elite 8 round games of 2005 & 2006, better seeds, all #1’s, have gone 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS.

In Elite 8 games that have had pointspreads of 3-points or less, the lesser seeds are on an incredible run of 17-4 SU & 16-5 ATS (76%), including 13-3 SU & ATS as underdogs!

Teams favored by 8-points or more in the quarterfinal round have lost just two of the last 12 games outright, but are just 3-9 ATS (25%).

Teams seeded #4 or worse and taking on a better seed are on a 15-5 ATS (75%) run in the quarterfinal games.

There has only been one upset in the Elite 8 round since ’98 when the difference between the seeds has been five or more. In such game, the better seeds are 12-1 SU but 4-8-1 ATS (33%).

The Elite 8 round has been the highest scoring of any round over the last eight years, with games averaging a total of 147.5 PPG while going 28-15-1 OVER (65%).

In games with totals less than 145, the OVER has been spectacular, 22-7 (76%). In games between “A” level conference teams, the OVER is 20-9 since ’99.

Marc Lawrence's Elite 8 Notes
• #1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 0-7 ATS vs foe off BB ATS wins

• #2 Seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a DD ATS win

• #3 Seeds are 1-4 ATS

• #4 Seeds are 7-1 ATS

• #5 Seeds are 4-0 SU and ATS

• #6 Seeds are 0-6 SU

• #8 or higher seeds are 6-2-2 ATS

• Teams off BB ATS losses are 6-2 ATS

• Teams with Revenge are 12-4-1 ATS

• Favs who scored < 65 pts last game are 0-5 ATS

• Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-4-1 ATS

• Dogs who scored 85 < pts last game are 1-4 ATS

COACH ME IF YOU CAN:

• Jim Boeheim is 1-5-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games, but 6-0 ATS from the Elite 8 out

• Tom Izzo is 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games

• Bob Huggins is 1-9 ATS as an NCAA tourney dog or favorite of less than two points

THE IDES OF MARCH:

• Xavier is 25-12 SU and 24-12-1 ATS during the month of March since 2004, including 14-1-1 ATS in the NCAA tourney.

Title Odds
Here is a look at each team's title odds according to Sportsbook.com, along with my thoughts on their chances...
Baylor +2500: Perhaps the least publicized of any Sweet 16 team, yet favored to reach Elite 8. I don’t see it though.
Butler +5000: Don’t believe this team has the horses to get by Syracuse.
Cornell +7500: Honestly…performance this weekend was un-Cinderella-like. Kentucky must be on-guard.
Duke +500: Very long odds for highest remaining StatFox Outplay Factor team. My new pick for title.
Kansas State +600: Toughest remaining road to title of any high seed. Longshot.
Kentucky +175: Most dominant team in first two rounds. Yet to be tested, but still the favorite.
Michigan State +3000: Lucas injury devastating. Will be lucky to survive UNI.
Northern Iowa +5000: If 3-point shots continue to fall, Final Four berth possible. That’s it.
Ohio State +800: Favorite in Midwest Region, best player, best defense.
Purdue +6000: Heavy underdog to Duke, has matched up poorly in recent head-to-head play.
St Marys (CA) +5000: Samhan the player-of-the-tournament thus far. One more win possible.
Syracuse +400: Written off after Onuaku injury, yet West Region looks there for the taking.
Tennessee +3500: Playing much better than expected. Buckeyes a stern test though.
Washington +4000: Is a Pac 10 team really a Cinderella? Seem to be coming back together at right time.
West Virginia +600: Defense was superb for the last 2-3 weeks. East Region final matchup vs. UK would be outstanding.
Xavier +4000: New game plan, same tourney results, now 14-1-1 ATS in L16 tourney games. Wow.