Sac Lawson
dime bet 826 Gonzaga 1.5
First off, this is a 1.5 unit play. Second, I realize the public is riding along with me here, and just to remind folks of what I always say... I'm simply not going to shy away from a game that is public backed, obviously it's a factor in making the play a bit smaller, but in no way I'm I a straight public fader like a lot of professionals out there.
That being said, there are a couple things to point out about this game and the betting percentages. It's important to realize that Gonzaga is one of those teams that the public backs EVERY game. They‡ play in a conference full of inferiors, and anytime Gonzaga is on the betting card, they're usually playing a team that the public knows nothing about.. so naturally the bets poor in on the Zags. As a result, we're paying a premium everytime we back 'em... probably at least 2 points. BUT, to get to the point, Gonzaga is still 58% ATS this season. Inflated numbers, public backing, it doesn't matter because this team flat out wins (especially as an underdog where they are 5-1, and on the road where they are 6-3 ATS). This is a Gonzaga team that flat out tests themselves every single year in the non conference, and they do so to prepare themselves for these kind of games. No doubt in my mind they will be more poised, more settled, and as a result more aggressive.
On the Florida St. side you're looking at a team that is 8-18 ATS all season, and 4-6 on the road. Fact is, this is a tale of two different stories. Vegas can't give FSU enough points, and Vegas can't take enough away from Gonzaga. I'll tell you why FSU is just 8-18 ATS... Anytime this team sees pressure, they roll over dead. Anytime they mount a lead in a game, and their opposition starts to tighten up the defense to get back in the game, it turns into turnover city. FSU is flat out sloppy with the basketball, literally one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to turning the ball over. Most people don't think of Gonzaga as an aggressive team, but they really are, they play very sound defense, and put plenty of pressure on the oppositions guards.
There is one way that FSU has been able to combat their turnover issues, and that's with good offensive rebounding. In almost every case this year, FSU has been the taller team on the floor, and as a result.. the shots they've lost from turnovers are gained right back by 2nd chance points down low. Tonight, however, they are facing a Gonzaga team that is 100% equal in height. Alabi is a huge part of the Seminoles' gameplan down low, and Gonzaga has nothing but depth in the paint with Sacre, Olynyk, and Foster. Yes, FSU can rebound, but it's not often they face up against any team with equal size, and tonight they will.
Seriously guys, all year long FSU has had one advantage over just about every team they've faced, and that's been size. Tonight that advantage does not exist. Not only does that not exist, but they're playing a team that will turn them over, a team that has flat out better scorers, and a team that will be poised as hell due to their preseason scheduling. Traveling to New York for most teams out west would be a big red flag, for Gonzaga, doesn't even make me blink. The only reason anyone would back FSU in this spot is if they were straight fading the public, keep that in mind. The Noles have no Matchup advantage, they turn the ball over a ton, they are horrible at the free throw line (KEY if this is a close one late), and there's no way you can trust them to sustain any sort of consistent scoring. Roll with Gonzaga for 1.5 units!
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