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#198271 - 03/15/10 06:53 PM
Re: 3/19
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Freaks Forum Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 69540
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Ben Burns
Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.
Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.
Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.
Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.
I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.
As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.
For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.
Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.
They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."
Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.
While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.
Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: "I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard..."
Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY
_________________________
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FREAK
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#198331 - 03/17/10 05:13 AM
Re: 3/19
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Freaks Forum Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 69540
Loc: Time to play the Game
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NCAA TOURNEY MOST RECENT TRENDS
#1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds
#2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds
Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY)
Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
Favs of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS L9Y)
Favs of 20 > pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years
Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS
Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because its my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, lets take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
FIRST ROUND NOTES
#1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
#2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y)
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y)
#4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (8-2 L4Y)
#9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts
Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)
Conference Tournament Champs in this round
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst Team SU records in this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best Team ATS records in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.
FREAK
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#198492 - 03/19/10 02:08 AM
Re: 3/19
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Freaks Forum Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 69540
Loc: Time to play the Game
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GOLD SHEET
FRIDAY, MARCH 19
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY
Syracuse 83 - Vermont 58--Whatever happened to Taylor Coppenrath? Unfortunately for Vermont (16), he's playing in Europe now, as this year's Catamounts don't possess a game-changing presence the likes of the versatile 6-9 Coppenrath, who helped lead UVM to a milestone first-round upset of Syracuse (1) back in 2005. Sure, physical 6-5 Cat sr. F Marqus Blakely (17.4 ppg & 9.4 rpg) is a dominant inside force at his own level. But he'll be "roofed" in the paint by the taller Orange frontliners. And Vermont (just 32% from three-point arc) probably won't be accurate enough from the perimeter to bomb effectively over 'Cuse's 2-3 zone. Even if Jim Boeheim decides to hold out 6-9 sr. F Arinze Onuaku, who's questionable with a quad injury, the overmatched Cats will be hard-pressed to prevent Orange star 6-7 jr. Wes Johnson (16 ppg & 8.4 rpg), 6-7 soph Kris Joseph, and 6-9 jr. Rick Jackson from doing major damage around the bucket, which in turn will create some wide-open looks on the perimeter for dead-eye sr. sharpshooter Andy Rautins. Add in the fact that America East reps are just 5-13 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994, and laying fair price with revenge-minded Syracuse looks like the percentage play.
Gonzaga 70 - Florida State 61--The battle lines couldn't be more clear cut in this matchup. Will the high-octane offense of Gonzaga (8) find any creases in the stingy defense of Florida State (9)? Can the mostly feckless Seminole attack exploit the frequent holes the Bulldogs leave open on the stop end? Long, tall FSU has permitted a paltry 37% FGs this season, tops in the nation. The potent 'Zags counter with a well-orchestrated offense (49% FGs--No. 6 nationally) that can attack inside or out. Even if you believe in the clichι that says "defense wins championships," basketball is ultimately about putting the ball in the bucket. And the Seminoles, who could at least depend on clutch G Toney Douglas in crunch time last season, just don't have any reliable go-to guys on the perimeter this season. As long as 7-0 soph C Robert Sacre & springy 6-7 frosh Elias Harris don't allow FSU's bruising frontcourt to play ping-pong on the offensive glass, the Bulldogs' vastly superior backcourt of 6-5 sr. Matt Bouldin & 6-5 jr. Steven Gray (combined 30 ppg) should hold sway and propel tourney-savvy Mark Few's Gonzaga bunch into the next round.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, NY
West Virginia 78 - Morgan State 67--Though West Virginia (2) riding high after capturing the Big East tourney, still interested in taking lofty number with a capable, battle-tested Morgan State squad (15) eager to make a better showing in its 2nd NCAA appearance following 82-54 smashing vs. Oklahoma LY. The Bears certainly won't be intimidated by the Big East juggernaut after battling Louisville in Freedom Hall (lost by just 9), upsetting Arkansas 97-94 on the road, and hanging much of the way in 79-63 setback at Baylor in preconference (MSU trailed just 39-36 at H). The fast-paced Bears (77 ppg) own a terrific inside-outside tandem in 6-9 soph Kevin Thompson (13 ppg, 12 rpg, 52% FGs) and electric 6-4 sr. G Reggie Holmes (22 ppg, 4 rpg, 36% from arc), who can create his own shot vs. WV's man-to-man. And if Huggins goes to a 1-3-1 zone, aforementioned Holmes, frosh F DeWayne Jackson (MEAC Rookie of Year is loop's top 3-pt. marksman) and sharp-shooting sr. G Troy Smith ( 9 ppg, 39% from arc) capable connecting from long range. Mounties' outstanding 6-7 F Da'Sean Butler (17 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg) and 6-9 soph F Devin Eubanks (12 ppg, 8 rpg) are prime-time performers, but G play has been spotty at times. Plus, WV has had a tendency for slow starts, as Mounties' just 5-7 as DD chalk TY. So, no surprise to see aggressive, well-schooled Bears (2nd in Div. I in FTs attempted!)--under tutelage of crafty HC Todd Bozeman (MEAC Coach of Year for 3 straight seasons)--stay inside roomy number.
Clemson 81 - Missouri 75--Recognize that Clemson (7) hasn't had much success in NCAAs lately, losing to lower-seeded teams each of the past two seasons. But believe veteran, uptempo Clemson (2 jrs. & 2 srs. in starting 5) able to finally get over the hurdle vs. a somewhat vulnerable Missouri team entering the Big Dance in a shooting funk. Mizzou has made just 36% FGs and a horrific 22 % from arc (18 of 80!) in its last 4 games, 3 of which were losses. And Columbia observers report Mizzou hasn't adequately replaced "glue guy" 6-8 F Jason Safford (9 ppg, 5 rpg) down the stretch. Missouri's best recipe for success is forcing TOs with its variety of presses and then scoring quick transition hoops, don't think that M.O. will work so well vs. Clemson's seasoned distributor Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 3 apg), who is playing with greater confidence and aggressiveness down the stretch. Missouri's glaring weakness is lack of quality post players (sans aformentioned Safford). So in a halfcourt game, must give decided advantage to Clemson, which owns one of the better insider scorers in relentless 6-7, 240 F Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 8 rpg), who is nicely complemented by springy 6-8 F Jerai Grant (4 blocked shots, 4 steals past 3 games), the son of former NBA player Horace Grant. And with Clemson's emerging frosh G Noel Johnson (4 of 5 beyond arc in ACC 1st-round game) firing with more confidence, expect Oliver Purnell's squad to outgun Mike Anderson's crew in a potentially high-scoring Tiger vs. Tiger shootout.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL
Temple 72 - Cornell 63--Fascinating matchup here between the teacher and pupil. Temple (5) HC Fran Dunphy, who is going to the NCAAs for the 12th time (9 times at Penn, 3 straight at Temple) has been a mentor for Cornell (12) HC Steve Donahue, who served as an assistant on Dunphy's staff at Penn for 10 years before taking the job at Ithaca. And while it's been trendy to pick the 12th seed upset over the 5th seed in the tourney (a slew of ESPN "experts" have done so already), we prefer to take the surging, more athletic Owls, who are riding a 10-game win streak (8-1-1 vs. spread).
Cornell has suffered DD losses in last two NCAA 1st--rounders. But do expect a more competitive effort from a 27-4 Cornell contingent that dominated the Ivy League, upset Bama 71-67 in Tuscaloosa in its season opener, and gave Kansas a scare in narrow 71-67 loss in Lawrence on Jan. 6. Big Red owns a productive inside-outside attack--featuring straight-shooting G Ryan Wittman (18 ppg), son of former NBA player Randy Wittman, and 7-0 C Jeff Foote (12 ppg, 8 rpg). But Cornell hard-pressed to find any rhythm vs. smothering Temple defense (57 ppg, 38% FGs, 28% from tripleville) highly disruptive both on the interior and on the perimeter. Look for Temple's lock-down defender G Ryan Brooks to shadow Wittman, while Owls' "double-double" machine 6-9 F Lavoy Allen tough provides matchup for Cornell. And in crunch time, we prefer Owls' dazzling 6-4 soph Juan Fernandez 12 ppg, 4 apg, 45% from arc), who thrives in high-pressure games. Moreover, Ivy teams haven't won an NCAA game since 1998, And A-10 squads are 5-0-1 vs. spread in Big Dance since 2005.
Wisconsin 69 - Wofford 54--We don't envision another one-sided affair like Wisconsin's (4) 70-43 bashing vs. Wofford (13) in Madison back in 2007. We do look for the healthy Badgers to cover a reasonable number vs. scrappy, but offensively-containable Terrier squad making its 1st-ever NCAA appearance. Wofford, which is riding a 13-game win streak, did play a challenging preconference slate, hanging tough at Pitt, while defeating Georgia on the road and South Carolina at home. Not bad. But believe, the Terriers will have trouble once again preparing the Badgers' unique swing attack, spearheaded by physical Gs Trevon Hughes (15 ppg, 5 rpg), marksman Jason Bohannon (12 ppg, 4 rpg), and hard-to-guard 6-10 F Jon Leuer (15 ppg, 6 rpg; 39% from arc), who is back to full strength after missing 9 games due to a wrist injury. And Wiscy's backcourt play has improved with maturation of soph G Jordan Taylor (10 ppg, 4 apg).
Defense-pressuring Wofford gets lots of quick, transition hoops off turnovers, but it's highly unlikely Terriers force many miscues vs. disciplined, methodical Badgers (nation-fewest 9 TOs pg!). And doubt unbalanced Wofford finds a groove in its halfcourt offense, with 6-6 F jr. Noah Dahlman (17 ppg, 6 rpg), voted the Southern Conference Player of the Year--the only DD scorer on the roster--struggling vs. Badgers' "packed-in" man-to-man. In addition, Bo Ryan's resilient squad has played well following a losing effort, going 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in that situation. Defensively-stout Wisconsin (56 ppg), which leads the nation in protecting the defensive glass, advances to next round with a not-so-pretty DD win in this anticipated "grinder."
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL
Duke 79 - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 58--Considering Pine Bluff's (16) aforementioned respectable showings vs. a series of accomplished big-time opponents, Golden Lions might not be as helpless as other "16s" against a power foe such as Duke (1). Although Blue Devils enter the Dance having won 12 of last 13 SU, they didn't look overwhelming at the ACC Tourney when failing to cover all three of their games. And considering his rather shallow bench, Coach K is unlikely to burden his overworked Duke starters with far more-challenging assignments just ahead. Blue Devils just one cover in last five Big Dance first-round appearances.
Duke 75 - Winthrop 55--Winthrop's (16) results were a bit mixed vs. top-flight opposition (crushed by 36 at Clemson, but not humiliated in losses vs. Charlotte, Cincinnati, and NC State). And Eagles often struggle mightily on attack end without a go-to scoring threat. But the Big South Tourney champs will have won 12 of their last 15 SU if they reach this assignment, and there's enough evidence to suggest Winthrop might not get completely embarrassed by Duke (1). Coach K not compelled to run up this score and expose his starters to unnecessary wear-and-tear with bigger challenges looming just ahead, and not sure thin Blue Devil bench will be able to extend margin in late going.
California 77 - Louisville 72--It's hard to forecast which Louisville (9) team shows up at the Ford Center, given the Cards' bipolar tendencies that were reflected in a series of back-and-forth efforts that became more pronounced in latter stages of campaign. Although Louisville rates a defensive edge over Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal (8), much prefer sr.-laden Bears' firepower and three-pronged strike force of Gs Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg), Patrick Christopher (16 ppg) & F Theo Robertson (13.8 ppg), the latter's absence having proven costly in early-season play when Bears lost vs. top intersectional foes Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico. This UL edition lacks its usual backcourt star power, with G Edgar Sosa (only 36.7% from floor) prone to go cold, while rugged 6-9 Samardo Samuels' disturbing tendency to get into foul trouble has made Cards a risky investment (except when playing Svracuse, that is). And we don't rate Rick Pitino any sideline edge over respected Cal mentor Mike Montgomery, either.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Ohio State 71 - UC Santa Barbara 61--Ohio State (2) certainly deserves to be a substantial favorite considering its impressive 90-61 plastering of Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney final on Sunday. But the Buckeyes have often been prone to relax a bit, covering only 4 of their last 11 as a double-digit favorite. And, with do-everything G/F Evan Turner (19.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 53.8% FGs) around, the Buckeyes can usually afford to cruise in games until Turner decides it's winnin' time, taking over after previously dishing to 6-5 soph William Buford (14.5 ppg) and trey-bomber Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% three-balls).
But UCSB (15), the regular-season and tourney champs of the lightly-regarded Big West, would appear have a decent chance to remain to competitive vs. its Big Ten foe. Although this is the Gauchos' first NCAA tourney since 2002, respected HC Bob Williams is in his 11th year in Santa Barbara and his 22nd overall. He returned a deep, veteran team this season, augmented by 6-5 Loyola-Marymount transfer Orlando Johnson (18 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40% treys), who quickly became the Player of the Year in the Big West. 6-5 soph James Nunnally (15 ppg. 5.7 rpg) is a valid complement, and 6-2 sr. James Powell (41% triples) is the leading trey shooter in the history of the league. Although outmanned to a degree, Williams' boys have shown they are well schooled to handle any game situation.
Oklahoma State 74 - Georgia Tech 69--Slight nod to fast-closing Oklahoma State (7), which surprisingly developed a new-found chemistry toward the end of the season after PG Ray Penn was felled with a stress fracture in mid-February. 6-6 jr. A-A James Anderson (22.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) was already the established star. But the likes of 5-10 soph shooter Keiton Page (14 ppg last 10 games) began providing more help for Anderson, and burly 6-6 lefty Marshall Moses (8.2 rpg) & 6-8 Kentucky transfer Matt Pilgrim (6.8 rpg) began providing more banging inside. The Cowboys were able to shoot down Kansas 85-77 Feb. 27 in Stillwater.
Yes, Georgia Tech (10) is talented and formidable foe, especially with its height, including 6-9 jr. Gani Lawal (13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and 6-10 future NBA star Derrick Favors (12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg). But the rest of the coach Paul Hewitt's team has lacked consistency, partly due to youth. And the Yellow Jackets connect on only 64% from the FT stripe compared with OSU's 71.5%. It must be noted that both teams have struggled on the road. Ga. Tech lost 8 of its last 9 away prior to its 3-1 run in the ACC tourney. OSU was 4-8 its last 12 on the road vs. quality opposition.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Pittsburgh 74 - Oakland 59--We're not exactly sure what to make of Oakland (14). On the one hand, the Golden Grizzlies (11 straight victories) enter the tourney with plenty of momentum after laying waste to the Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent Conference). On the other hand, while we credit head coach Greg Kampe (25 years at the helm!) for his ambitious non-conference scheduling, it's hard not to notice that Oakland was blasted by 30+ points at Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State and Syracuse. Sure, Pittsburgh (3) might be a cut below at least three of that mighty quartet. But the Grizz also suffered decisive double-digit losses at Wisconsin and at a very sub-par Oregon edition earlier in the campaign. The confident Kampe says he believes the Sweet 16 is a realistic goal for his team, but Oakland's inability to step up vs. better competition makes us doubt they can get by a Panther side forged tough in the crucible of the rugged Big East. Pitt much more conscientious on the defensive end than the permissive Grizzlies, and clever mentor Jamie Dixon will make sure Oakland has tough time getting the ball to star 6-11 jr. C Keith Benson in the post.
Xavier 60 - Minnesota 55--Tough call, if mostly because Minnesota (11) head coach Tubby Smith has so much more NCAA tournament experience (including a national championship) than rookie counterpart Chris Mack of Xavier (6). Still, the Musketeers hold most of the other edges in this matchup. Credit the Golden Gophers for recovering from the loss of PG Al Nolen to academic problems midway through the season. With soph Devoe Joseph gradually growing accustomed to his role as main playmaker, Minnesota managed to eke out an invitation to the "Big Dance" on the strength of its foray all the way to finals of the Big 10 tournament.
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.
FREAK
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