Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
Byu (-4 1/2) over Florida
18-Mar-10 09:15 AM Pacific Time
I'll take BYU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 points.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -4.
2 Star Selection
Notre Dame (-2) over Old Dominion
18-Mar-10 09:25 AM Pacific Time
I'll take Notre Dame in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or better (strong opinion at -2 1/2 or -3).
2 Star Selection
Wake Forest (+5) over Texas
18-Mar-10 06:45 PM Pacific Time
I'll take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
Opinion
Tennessee (-3 1/2) vs San Diego State
18-Mar-10 06:55 PM Pacific Time
San Diego State applies to a negative 7-31 ATS situation that is based on their winning of the tough Mountain West Conference while Tennessee applies to a 49-11 ATS situation and a 20-3 ATS first round situation that is based on their poor performance in the SEC tournament. Unfortunately, I can't justify the Volunteers being favored by 3 points in this game. Tennessee hasn't been as good since kicking star Tyler Smith off the team even though they've occasionally risen to the challenge in big games (upset wins over Kansas and Kentucky). Aside from their upsets of two #1 seeds the Vols have been nothing special. In 21 games without Smith the Vols have outscored their opponents by an average of 3.1 points per game against a schedule of teams that is 2 1/2 points worse than San Diego State's rating, so favoring Tennessee by 3 1/2 points makes no sense. San Diego State performed pretty well against good teams this season, with an average scoring margin of just -2.0 points in 10 games against NCAA tournament caliber teams (St. Mary's, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV and Arizona State), who combine for an average schedule rating that is 1.7 points tougher than Tennessee's rating without Smith. The Aztecs lost only 3 of those 10 games against good competition by more than 3 points and the line on this game should be pick, as these teams rate the same in my current ratings. Once again, the line value and the situations are favoring opposite sides and I'll pass.
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FREAK