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#198340 - 03/17/10 11:21 AM
Re: 3/17
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NIT
Northwestern (20-13, 18-9-1 ATS) at Rhode Island (23-9, 12-16-1 ATS)
The Wildcats alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games, including a 73-58 rout of Indiana as an 8½-point favorite in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament Thursday followed by Friday’s 69-61 loss to Purdue, pushing as an eight-point pup. Not counting the neutral-site Big Ten tourney, Northwestern lost its final seven road games (all in conference), going 3-4 ATS. Rhode Island seemed ticketed for an NCAA Tournament berth after starting the season 19-3. However, the Rams stumbled from mid-February on, losing six of their final 10. On Saturday, they faced top-seeded Temple in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinals and got clocked 57-44 as a 3½-point underdog. With that result, Rhode Island enters the NIT in a 3-8 ATS funk (3-6 ATS as a favorite). Also, while the Rams have won 13 of 15 home games, they’re 3-9 ATS in lined contests as a host. Northwestern made a rare postseason appearance last year, but it didn’t last long, as the Wildcats lost a first-round NIT contest at Tulsa 68-59 as a five-point underdog. Meanwhile, this is the Rams’ third straight NIT appearance, and they went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS combined the last two years, though all three were road games. The Wildcats’ ATS trends are all over the map, as they’re on slides of 1-3-1 on the road, 1-4 against Atlantic 10 opponents and 2-5 on Wednesday. However, they’re also on pointspread surges of 17-7-1 overall, 5-0 in non-conference action, 8-0 after a SU loss, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 8-2-1 as a road pup. Rhode Island is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 non-league games, but otherwise it is in pointspread funks of 3-8 overall, 4-14 at home (all as a favorite), 6-13-1 as a favorite anywhere and 1-5 when laying less than seven points at home. Northwestern is on “over” runs of 13-3 overall, 6-0 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup, 16-5 on Wednesday and 19-7 after a SU defeat. Conversely, the Rams carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Wednesday and 4-1 as a home chalk of less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
Nevada (20-12, 14-15 ATS) at Wichita State (25-9, 13-13-1 ATS)
The Wolf Pack’s three-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a halt in the semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament Friday, as they lost 80-79 to New Mexico State as a 5½-point home favorite. Nevada lost all four of its non-conference road games early in the season (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 78.5 points per game. Wichita State has been idle for 10 days, most recently suffering a 67-52 loss to top-seeded Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game, snapping a three-game winning streak. The Shockers failed to cover as a three-point underdog against Northern Iowa, and they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games (1-3 ATS at home). For the season, Wichita State is unbeaten in 17 home games (6-5 ATS in line action), and it is 26-1 in its last 27 as a host (10-9 ATS). The Shockers played in the lower-tier College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament a year ago, going 1-1 SU and ATS, with both games played at home. Nevada also played in the CBI last year, losing 79-77 to UTEP as a two-point home favorite in the opening round. The Wolf Pack are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 versus Missouri Valley foes, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 1-5 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 2-5 as a road pup, 0-5 as a road ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 2-7 on Wednesday. Wichita State has cashed in eight of 11 at home (all as a favorite), eight of 11 after a SU defeat and five of seven on Wednesday, but it is also in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-5 in non-conference games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Nevada is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 when grabbing 7 to 12½ points on the road, and 4-0 against the Missouri Valley. However, the Shockers are on “over” streaks of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 on Wednesday and 20-7 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WICHITA STATE
St. John’s (17-15, 15-13-1 ATS) at Memphis (23-9, 10-17 ATS)
St. John’s started the season with six straight wins and was 10-2 SU by the time the Big East season kicked off on New Year’s Eve. However, things fell apart from there, as the Red Storm won just six of their final 19 games, including a tough 57-55 loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament quarterfinals a week ago tonight (though they covered as a four-point pup). On the bright side, St. John’s cashed in its final three games after a 4-8-1 ATS drought. Also, it won three of its last four true road games (SU and ATS), the only loss coming at then-top-ranked Syracuse. After four straight strips to the Big Dance under former coach John Calipari – including two Elite Eight showings and an appearance in the 2007 national championship game – the Tigers have been relegated to the NIT for the first time since 2005. Despite ending the regular season on a 7-1 run (4-4 ATS), Memphis’ bubble burst when it lost to Houston 66-65 in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. The Tigers are 16-3 at the FedEx Forum this season, but just 5-9 ATS in lined games. The last time Memphis went to the NIT, it advanced to the tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, last year St. John’s played in the CBI, losing a first-round game at Richmond 75-69, coming up just short as a five-point road underdog. The Red Storm are on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 in non-conference play and 3-1-1 after a spread-cover. On the downside, they’ve failed to cover in seven of 11 Wednesday contests, 20 of 28 as a ‘dog of 7 to 12½ points and 1-9 when catching that pointspread on the road. Memphis has covered in 19 of 26 as a home chalk of 7 to 12½ points, but from there the Tigers carry negative ATS trends of 7-16 overall, 1-5 at home (all as a favorite), 0-6 in non-conference action and 4-9 after a non-cover. It’s been all “unders” for St. John’s lately, including 4-0 in non-league play, 9-2-1 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 19-6-1 on Wednesday and 38-16-1 following an ATS win. On the flip side, Memphis is on “over” runs of 11-5 overall, 8-3 against Big East foes, 4-0 after a SU defeat, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. JOHN’S
NBA
San Antonio (39-25, 33-30-1 ATS) at Orlando (47-21, 36-31-1 ATS)
Two teams currently playing tremendous basketball clash at Amway Arena, as the Spurs complete a quick two-game Florida road trip with a showdown against the Magic. San Antonio took a three-game SU and seven-game ATS winning streak to Miami last night and clobbered the Heat 88-76 as a two-point underdog. The Spurs, who jumped out to a 29-14 lead on Miami, are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine outings, and during this nine-game push, San Antonio is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road, the only setback being a 97-95 loss at Cleveland eight days ago. Still, yesterday’s victory in Miami pushed the Spurs just one game over .500 on the highway (16-15, 15-16 ATS). Orlando’s season-high eight-game winning streak came to an end in Sunday’s 96-89 home loss to Charlotte as an 8½-point favorite. With the defeat, the Magic also saw a three-game overall ATS uptick and a six-game home winning streak (5-1 ATS) snapped. Still, going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 21-6 SU and it hasn’t dropped consecutive games over this span. For the season, the Magic are 27-7 at Amway Arena (19-15 ATS). The Magic ended a three-game SU and ATS losing skid to San Antonio last year, sweeping the season series with a 90-78 home win as a 2½-point chalk and a 105-98 road victory as a three-point underdog. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine meetings. In addition to cashing in eight straight games overall and five straight on the road, the Spurs are on ATS surges of 10-1 against the Southeast Division, 5-1 as an underdog (all on the road) and 6-1 versus winning teams. The Magic have covered in five of seven at home and four straight on Wednesday, but they’re also in ATS funks of 2-8 against Southwest Division squads, 2-6 versus teams with a winning record and 0-4 when laying between five and 10½ points. The Spurs are on “under” stretches of 6-1 overall, 15-6 on the road, 6-0 as a ‘dog (all on the highway), 11-3-1 in Eastern Conference games, 37-16-2 versus the Southeast Division, 8-1 versus winning teams, 3-1-1 on Wednesday and 18-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. Also, Orlando is riding “under” streaks of 24-8-1 overall, 15-5-1 at home, 36-16-1 against the Western Conference, 7-1 versus the Southwest Division, 7-1 when playing after two days off, 4-1 on Wednesday, 22-6-1 as a favorite and 8-1 as a chalk of five to 12½ points. However, the over has cashed in seven of the last nine Spurs-Magic battles in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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#198342 - 03/17/10 11:21 AM
Re: 3/17
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-9.5, 208.5)
Mike D’Antoni ended the Tracy McGrady point guard experiment and the results have been fruitful.
Rookie Toney Douglas has assumed the starting quarterback role for the past two games and New York has gone 2-0 SU and ATS, winning as 2.5- and 10.5-point underdogs. The former Florida State Seminole averaged 20.5 points and 7.5 assists in the two victories.
"The coaches have a lot of confidence in me," Douglas said. "I have confidence in myself. I feel comfortable."
The Knicks put a halt to the Mavericks 13-game winning streak in Dallas on Friday with a 29-point rout and parlayed the confidence from that game into a road win over the 76ers on Monday.
Three of New York’s last four wins have come as underdogs of seven points or more so a moneyline play on Wednesday might be considered, but grabbing the points is a safer bet.
Pick: Knicks
New Orleans Hornets at Golden State Warriors (-3, 229)
The Warriors look to avoid the dreaded season-sweep at the hands of the Hornets on Wednesday.
Although Golden State hasn’t won a game against New Orleans this season, the team is 2-1 ATS in the series with both covers coming on the road.
And even with a depleted lineup the Warriors have been sticking around in ballgames lately, going 4-0 ATS in their last four and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
Those last 10 outings came against formidable competition such as Los Angeles, Orlando, Atlanta, Denver, Charlotte and Portland so the struggling Hornets should be a welcome sight.
Sharps have already nailed this spread which opened at Warriors -2 so don’t delay because this number could be -4 by gametime tomorrow. The Hornets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10.
Pick: Warriors
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#198345 - 03/17/10 01:15 PM
Re: 3/17
[Re: Joeaveragefan]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Freaks Forum Owner
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 69540
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Craig Davis
20 Dime – THUNDER 10 Dime – BOSTON UNIVERSITY
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER --- No, this selection has nothing to do with the fact the Bobcats had their six-game winning streak ended by Indiana last night... trailing once by 17 points before dropping a 99-94 setback. This selection is all about the OKC Thunder and the talent they are finally tapping in to. Remember, this is basically the same team that struggled much of last season. So what's different this year? Well for starters, the bench play has far outdone itself this year, with solid contributions from Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Nick Collison and even Kyle Weaver. The bench was a big problem for the Thunder last year as the coaching staff could ill-afford to give Durant, Westbrook or Green any reasonable time on the bench without getting majorly outscored. That's all changed the year.
Speaking of changes... how about the OKC free throw shooting?!?! The Thunder are just small percentage points behind the Dallas Mavericks in terms of overall free throw percentage and currently sit in second place in the entire NBA. Teams that can draw fouls and then convert at the line are going to find themselves in the playoffs... it's that simple.
And thirdly, the chemistry on this team has improved 300%. James Harden, though he's not playing right now because of injury, was a great draft pick for this team... even though he's hardly the best rookie in the 2009 NBA Draft Class. Many of the guys hang out more than players from most teams in the NBA because there's really not a whole heck of a lot to do in OKC. It's hard to get in trouble; it's hard to meet a ton of people; it's just easier to hang out with your teammates until you take a road trip.
I'm not going to give you any ATS trends or any other meaningless stats tonight... I'm simply going to tell you that the OKC Thunder are the better overall team, they have the best player on the floor, and Charlotte will likely be without one of their best players in Gerald Wallace. At a basic pick 'em, I like the Thunder to steal one in Charlotte.
BOSTON U --- I'll admit, I haven't really followed Boston U much this season. But one thing I know about them is they are tough... they don't go down without a fight. They've won 8 of their last 10 conference games by an average of more than 10 PPG. The problem when handicapping a team like Boston is that none of us has really watched much of their game play, so I have to go off what I read from those who watch them on a game-by-game basis. The one thing I do know is that this team is playing its best basketball at the right time, posting a 6-1 February record, losing one home game to Vermont... a game they should have won... and then made mince meat out of Hartford and Stony Brook in the conference tourney before eventually falling in the championship game to Vermont.
Despite the good and the bad of the Boston program, this selection basically comes down to the fact I don't trust Oregon State to cover any sort of chalk. This team is 14-17 for a reason... they're not very good. OSU lost four of its last six games to close the season and they barely score 60 PPG. In fact, the Beavers scored more than 63 points in just two of their last 10 games while Boston averages 70 PPG and has scored more than 75 points 13 times this year. It's hard for me to fathom a team that averages 60 points per game beating anyone by 8 points... which would mean Boston scores in the low- to mid-50s... and I just don't see that happening. Take the Terriers plus the number.
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FREAK
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