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#198330 - 03/17/10 05:13 AM
Re: 3/18
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
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NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS
• #1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds
• #2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds
• Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY)
• Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Favs of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS L9Y)
• Favs of 20 > pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years
• Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS
• Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
FIRST ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y)
• #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y)
• #4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (8-2 L4Y)
• #9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts
• Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)
Conference Tournament Champs in this round
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst Team SU records in this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best Team ATS records in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.
FREAK
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#198406 - 03/18/10 08:46 AM
Re: 3/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS WAGERS
Old Dominion +1.18 over Notre Dame
Speaking of teams that got royally shafted, the Old Dominion Monarchs may as well have received a giant middle finger from the Selection Committee. Old Dominion did everything it could possibly do to earn a higher seed; namely go 15-3 in conference play, win the conference tournament and not lose a home game the entire season and yet that still wasn’t enough to earn them anything more than an 11 seed. I’m here to tell you this team can play and it starts with the collection of sheer length Head Coach Blaine Taylor put together. The starting five is made up of players who are 6’5 and taller that predictably lead all of Division 1 in offensive rebound percentage. The Monarchs gobbled up an incredible 42.4% of missed shots and protected the rim with outstanding success, allowing opponents to shoot only 30% on three’s and 45.4% on two’s. These are extremely important statistics because the Fighting Irish do one thing well and that’s score. Notre Dame went on an incredible run to make this tournament, winning six of its last seven games over big time Big East opponents. The main problem I have with Notre Dame is that their team isn’t in the same stratosphere athletically with the Monarchs. This is a team that ranked 342nd out of 347 in turnovers created, far and away the worst mark of any team in this tournament. They rely almost exclusively on their starting five and against a huge physical team like Old Dominion it’s very possible fatigue becomes a serious factor. Furthermore, they finished 3rd from the bottom in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Simply put, this is a terrible matchup for this Notre Dame squad. They have taxed their starters on this tournament push and are facing a team that can defend, rebound, and play in the paint. That’s exactly the way you beat this team and the added motivation of David vs. Goliath is precisely the kind of angle I look for during tournament time. Old Dominion pulls off the upset. Play: Old Dominion +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.09 over Marquette
Ok, has the Pac 10 bashing gone to a new low or what? The Washington Huskies won the Pac 10 tournament, finished 24-9 and has won seven in a row but yet can’t get anything more than an 11 seed? Completely and utterly ridiculous but thankfully we’re going to make some money out of this injustice. Firstly, I want to say a little something about the Pac 10 being a “joke” this season because it simply wasn’t true. This is a conference that has sent out lottery pick after lottery pick over the past few seasons and still managed to field teams that came second in the NCAA in defensive efficiency (USC), third in offensive efficiency (California) and had seven teams finish at or above .500, a better ratio than the SEC and Big 10. Washington played at a blistering tempo and still finished second in the Pac-10 in offensive efficiency. (A success because the more possessions a team uses the more likely it is for them to either miss or turn the ball over) Marquette has gone 11-3 over its past 14 games but believe it or not only beat 2 tournament teams over that entire stretch. The Golden Eagles got blown out by Georgetown in the conference tournament and lost at home to Notre Dame. So please, save this “Watch out for Marquette!” talk that has dominated this game storyline. It’s a nice team without a single NBA prospect that allowed opponents to shoot 50% from two and boasted the worst rate of blocks among all the 65 teams in this field. Look for Washington to quell the Pac 10 storyline and pull off this upset. Play: Washington +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Wake Forest +1.93 over Texas
Both teams come into this event struggling but the difference is the Longhorns have been struggling for two months while the Deacs have been struggling for two weeks. All that means nothing now but it sure is telling. The Longhorns were ranked #1 in the nation after they opened the year 17-0 and kept beating up on a whole slew of marshmallows. They opened Big-12 play by beating Iowa St and Colorado and also beat Texas A&M but that’s where things started to turn. Over the Longhorns final 16 games they went 7-9 and got walloped on more than a few occasions. This team was and probably still is the most overrated in the land and frankly, Wake probably has a better chance of winning than the Longhorns do. Sure, they dropped five of its last six but that was then and this is now. They still played a tougher schedule than Texas, they’re very strong defensively and they have a guy by the name of Al-Farouq Aminu that averages a double-double. The Longhorns can be pressured into doing a lot of bad things and other strong defensive clubs exposed those flaws, thus, so will the Deacons. If you like seeing a lot of wild shots by a careless team, watch the Longhorns. Play: Wake Forest +1.93
Temple –3˝ over Cornell
The best thing about this tournament this year is that it’s so wide open and any team that gets hot or comes in hot has a chance to go very deep. Enter the Temple Owls. When you look at pedigrees of teams that have won this event you’ll often find that team went on a 10-game or more winning streak during the year and performed outstanding on the road. The Owls closed the season 10-0 and they also won 13 of 14 games from early December until late January. Temple went 12-3 on the road 3-1 on a neutral court and 13-1 at home. They have one of the best profiles in the tourney and one must question why they’re just a #5 seed. Meanwhile the Big Red has dominated the Ivy League for years and that’s nice it, it really is but this isn’t Princeton, Harvard or Yale. Cornell’s four losses were to Seton Hall, Syracuse, Kansas and Pennsylvania and three of the four losses were by 10 points or more. Yes, they played the Jayhawks very tough, losing by just five in Kansas but the Jayhawks just came off a win over Temple and had Tennessee on deck, so that game was sandwiched between two ranked teams at the time. That’s not to say the Big Red is not a quality team because they are but the defense of the Owls is tremendous and it’s hard to imagine Cornell keeping pace with this quality team from the A-10. The Owls have won the A-10 for three consecutive years and this is its best team yet going into the dance. Play: Temple –3˝ (No bets).
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#198407 - 03/18/10 08:47 AM
Re: 3/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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Freaksforum VIP
Registered: 09/14/04
Posts: 3978
Loc: TX
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SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, MARCH 18
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NCAA TOURNAMENT
MIDWEST REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(14) Ohio (21-14, 18-12 ATS) vs. (3) Georgetown (23-10, 17-12 ATS)
Ohio has ripped off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight starts. The Bobcats finished off their three-game run through the Mid-American Conference tournament with an 81-75 victory over Akron as a 1˝-point underdog Saturday. Those three games were Ohio’s only neutral-site contests all season.
Georgetown has cashed in a season-best five straight games (4-1 SU), winning three in row en route to the Big East Conference final before coming up just short to West Virginia, losing 60-58 as a 2˝-point ‘dog Saturday. The Hoyas have been superb on neutral floors this season, going 5-1 SU while covering in all six outings, averaging 74.0 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while giving up 63.5 ppg on 39.3 percent shooting.
Ohio is making its 12th Tournament appearance, the last coming in 2005. The Bobcats last won a tourney game in 1983. The Hoyas failed to make the Big Dance last year, ending a three-year tourney streak. They haven’t lost a first-round game since 1997, making it to at least the second round four straight times.
The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Big East opponents, but they own positive ATS streaks of 11-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 8-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as a pup and 4-1 at neutral sites. The Hoyas, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a tourney chalk, though they are on ATS surges of 4-0 after a spread-cover, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 9-2-1 outside the Big East.
The under has hit in five straight non-conference games for Ohio, but the Bobcats are on “over” rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after a SU win, 8-2 on Thursday and 6-2-1 as an underdog. Georgetown is on “under” stretches of 10-3 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tournament chalk, 10-4 with the Hoyas laying 13 or more points and 49-23 coming off a spread-cover, but the over is 8-2 with John Thompson III’s troops coming off a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGETOWN
(11) San Diego State (25-8, 17-13 ATS) vs. (6) Tennessee (25-8, 13-16-1 ATS)
San Diego State made a big run to reach the Big Dance, winning six of its last seven regular-season games (4-3 ATS), then sweeping through three games (2-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West Conference tournament title. In Saturday’s final, the Aztecs dropped host UNLV 55-45 as a four-point underdog. Over the past five games (all SU wins), Steve Fisher’s squad has averaged 65.6 ppg on stout 49.8 percent shooting, while allowing just 56.4 on 41.3 percent shooting.
Tennessee won five in a row, including its first two games in the SEC tourney to reach the semifinals in Nashville, before getting hammered by No. 2 Kentucky 74-45 Saturday as a 4˝-point pup. On the road, the Volunteers have been outscored by an average of about four ppg this season (67.6-63.9), though on neutral courts, they’ve averaged 69.9 ppg and allowed 62.0.
San Diego State has never won a game in five previous Tournament appearances, most recently losing 87-83 to Indiana in a first-round contest in 2006. This is the fifth straight year the Volunteers have gone dancing, but last year they bowed out in the first round, losing by two points to Oklahoma State as a three-point favorite.
The Aztecs are on a handful of positive pointspread streaks, including 9-4 overall, 6-2 after a non-cover, 7-3 after a SU win, 4-1 as a ‘dog, 5-1 when catching less than seven points and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. That said, they are also just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral-court outings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
The Vols are on ATS dives of 5-11 overall, 1-6 after a SU loss, 3-7 giving points, 3-7-1 in the Big Dance and 2-7-1 as a tourney chalk, though they’ve gone 4-0 ATS in their last four after a pointspread loss.
San Diego State is on “over” runs of 8-3 as an underdog and 11-4 as a neutral-site pup, but the under has hit in 22 of its last 28 non-conference contests and 13 of its last 19 neutral-site starts. Likewise, Tennessee is on “under” tears of 20-7-1 overall, 7-2 in non-conference play, 8-0 on Thursday, 6-1-1 as a chalk, 5-0-1 at neutral sites, 4-0-1 as a neutral-site favorite, 4-0 after a SU loss and 9-1-1 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MIDWEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(16) Lehigh (22-10, 3-0 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (32-2, 14-16-1 ATS)
Lehigh, the regular-season and tournament champ from the Patriot League, has won five in a row and seven of eight. The last three wins came in the conference tourney (3-0 ATS), and all by at least 15 points, including a 74-59 rout of Lafayette in Friday’s title game. However, those three contests also marked the only lined games all season for the Mountain Hawks, who averaged 75.1 ppg and allowed 70.0 ppg on the year.
Kansas claimed the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big 12, and has lost just once in its last 19 games (8-10-1 ATS). In Saturday’s conference final against Kansas State, the Jayhawks won 72-64 as a six-point favorite to cash for the fourth time in the last five games, their best ATS stretch of the season. Bill Self fields the nation’s fifth-best scoring team, at 81.8 ppg on 48.8 percent shooting (10th), including a sturdy 40.9 percent from three-point range (fifth). Kansas is allowing 63.8 ppg with a defense that rates third nationally in shooting percentage (37.7 percent).
Lehigh is back in the Tournament for the fourth time overall and the first time since 2004. This is the Jayhawks’ 21st consecutive Tournament appearance, the longest active streak in the nation. They won their third championship in 2008, but last year bowed out in the Sweet 16.
The Mountain Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site contests. The Jayhawks are on ATS skids of 0-7 laying more than 13 points, 4-17 on Thursday, 3-7 after a spread-cover and 4-9 following a SU win. But along with their current 4-1 ATS run (all as a chalk), they are on pointspread rolls 5-2 as a neutral-site chalk, 4-1 in the Tournament, 5-1 as a tourney favorite and 35-15-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over is 4-1-1 in Lehigh’s last six non-conference contests and 3-1-1 in its last five neutral-site games, but the under is on a 5-1 run for the Mountain Hawks following a SU win. Kansas is on a boatload of “under” surges, including 4-1 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 10-1 in the tourney, 7-1 as a tourney chalk, 5-1 in non-conference play and 12-4 on neutral floors.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER
(9) Northern Iowa (28-4, 20-11 ATS) vs. (8) UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS)
Northern Iowa rode its stifling defense to the regular-season and tournament titles in the Missouri Valley Conference. In their three-game tear through the conference tourney, the Panthers gave up a total of 132 points, holding Drake and Bradley to a suffocating 40 points apiece in the first two games, then dumping Wichita State 67-52 as a three-point chalk in the March 7 final. Northern Iowa averages a modest 63.3 ppg, but gives up just 54.3, the second-stingiest total in the nation.
UNLV won four straight to cap the regular season in the Mountain West, then notched wins over Utah and No. 14 BYU in the conference tourney. However, the Rebels ran out of gas in a 55-45 loss to San Diego State as a four-point home chalk in Saturday’s final. UNLV was solid in road/neutral-site contests this season, going 10-4 SU and ATS while putting up an average of 71.2 ppg and allowing 62.7 ppg.
This is Northern Iowa’s sixth Tournament appearance and second in a row. Last year in the first round, the Panthers gave fifth-seeded Purdue a tough battle before eventually falling 61-56 but cashing as an 8˝-point underdog. Their only Tournament victory came in 1990. UNLV missed out on March Mayhem last year after advancing to the Sweet 16 in 2007 and getting to the second round in 2008. The Runnin’ Rebels have made it to the Big Dance 17 times in school history, reaching the Final Four four times.
The Panthers sport nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 36-17 overall, 5-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 53-24 as a pup regardless of venue and 14-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Rebels have failed to cash in their last four Thursday starts (including last week’s MWC tourney opener), but are otherwise on ATS upticks of 11-5 outside the MWC, 8-3 against winning teams, 5-2 after a SU loss, 7-3 after a pointspread setback and 9-3 after a double-digit home loss.
With their stout defense, it’s no surprise that the Panthers are on “under” tears of 21-6 overall, 18-4 on neutral courts, 37-15-1 getting points, 11-0 as a neutral-site pup and 21-5 following a SU win. Similarly, UNLV is on “under” stretches of 7-3 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the over is 7-1-2 in the Rebels’ last 10 Thursday starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN IOWA
WEST REGION
(at Oklahoma City)
(10) Florida (21-12, 15-13 ATS) vs. (7) BYU (29-5, 18-13 ATS)
Florida lost four of its last five games (2-3 ATS), yet still found a way to sneak into the field of 65 as one of the last “bubble” teams. The Gators opened last week’s SEC tourney in Nashville with a 78-69 victory over Auburn as a 5˝-point favorite, then fell to Mississippi State 75-69 getting 1˝ points Friday. The Gators played six neutral-site games this year, going 3-3 SU and ATS while playing opponents nearly dead even, averaging 70.5 ppg and allowing 69.5.
BYU went 7-2 in its last nine games (6-3 ATS), with the losses coming to a pair of Big Dance invitees in UNLV and New Mexico. In last week’s Mountain West Conference tournament, the Cougars topped TCU 95-85 but fell short as a whopping 16˝-point chalk, then lost to tourney host UNLV 70-66 in Friday’s semis as a one-point pup. BYU ranks in the top 15 nationally in scoring (83.0 ppg, second), field-goal percentage (48.3) and three-point percentage (42.0, second), and is the No. 1 team at the free-throw line (78.6 percent).
Florida won consecutive national championships in 2006 and 2007 – the only two titles in school history – but then failed to get into the Big Dance the last two years. The Gators haven’t lost a first-round contest since 2004. Meanwhile, BYU is looking to snap a string of seven straight first-round losses, its last Tournament victory coming in 1993. The Cougars, who have reached this event 25 times, fell to Texas A&M in the opening round each of the last two years (67-62 in 2008; 79-66 last year), failing to cover in both games.
The Gators have covered in just one of their last five non-conference outings, but they are on ATS upturns of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-2 getting points, 4-1 as a tourney pup and 13-4 on Thursday. The Cougars are on ATS runs of 7-2 as a chalk, 4-0 laying less than seven points, 4-1 outside the MWC, 7-2 after a non-cover and 13-5-1 after a SU loss. However, they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 on Thursday, 1-5 in the tourney, 2-6 at neutral sites and 2-6 as a neutral-site favorite.
The under for Florida is on surges of 4-1 after a non-cover, 18-6 outside the SEC and 37-16 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over has been the play in six of the Gators’ last seven tourney starts. In addition, BYU is on “over” rolls of 7-3 overall, 15-7 on neutral courts, 4-0 in non-conference play, 4-0 in the Big Dance, 17-4 on Thursday, 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 22-10-2 following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) North Texas (24-8, 17-6-2 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (26-7, 18-9-1 ATS)
North Texas hasn’t lost since Jan. 30, going 11-0 SU (7-2-1 ATS in lined games), including a three-game run through the Sun Belt tournament in its only neutral-site contests this season. The Mean Green edged Troy 66-63 on March 9 as a one-point chalk to clinch their Big Dance berth. North Texas finished the year ranked second nationally with its 17-6-2 ATS record.
Kansas State went on a seven-game tear late in the regular season to soar up the national rankings before going 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games. However, two of those losses were against Kansas – the tourney’s No. 1 overall seed – including a 72-64 setback as a six-point pup in the Big 12 title game Saturday. The Wildcats, with their highest seed in school history, average 79.6 ppg (14th) and give up 69.4 ppg.
North Texas has qualified for the Big Dance just twice previously, losing to North Carolina by 18 points in 1988 and falling to Memphis by 15 points in 2007. Kansas State ended a 12-year Tournament drought in 2008, when it knocked off USC in the opening round – snapping a four-game Big Dance losing streak that stretched to 1989 – but the Wildcats bowed out to Wisconsin in the second round. K-State failed to qualify for last year’s event.
The Mean Green are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 18-7-2 overall, 33-16-2 getting points, 18-5 at neutral sites, 10-4 as a neutral-site pup, 5-0-2 getting more than 13 points, 10-3-1 in non-conference play and 4-0-1 against the Big 12. Similarly, the Wildcats are on pointspread tears of 17-7-1 overall, 6-0 outside the Big 12, 14-4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 as a neutral-site chalk.
North Texas is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at neutral sites, 8-2 after a SU win and 7-2 as a ‘dog. On the flip side, K-State is on “over” rolls of 5-1 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk, 9-1 after a SU loss, 6-1-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
WEST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(12) UTEP (26-6, 14-14 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (28-4, 13-19 ATS)
Texas-El Paso won the Conference USA regular-season crown and rolled through the first two games of the league tourney before blowing a seven-point late second-half lead and tumbling to Houston 81-73 as a seven-point chalk in Saturday’s final. Still, the Miners got an at-large bid, likely due to their 16-game winning streak (10-6 ATS) prior to losing to the Cougars. UTEP averages 75.8 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting, while allowing 64.2 ppg with a defense giving up just 39.0 percent shooting (14th).
Butler has the longest active winning streak in the nation at 20 in a row, though it has gone just 9-11 ATS in that span. In the Horizon League final, played on their home floor, the Bulldogs pounded Wright State 70-45 as a seven-point favorite March 9 to cap an undefeated conference season. Butler went 1-3 SU and ATS in its four neutral-site starts this year, getting outscored by just under four ppg (72.8-69.0). However, in the last five games overall, the Bulldogs are averaging 71.0 ppg and allowing 56.2, with the defense yielding just 35.5 percent shooting.
UTEP has reached the Tournament 16 previous times, but only twice since 1992. The Miners went one-and-done both times, falling to Maryland in 2004 and Utah in 2005. Butler is making its fourth straight Tournament appearance and ninth overall. After winning at least one game in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2008 (going 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS overall), the Bulldogs got bounced in the opening round last year, in a 75-71 loss to LSU as a 1˝-point underdog.
The Miners are on ATS upticks of 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 as a pup, but they’ve also gone 0-5 ATS in their last five after a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference affairs. Butler, meanwhile, is on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 1-7 on neutral floors, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 on Thursday and 1-5 after a SU win of more than 20 points.
The under is 8-2 in UTEP’s last 10 coming off a SU loss, but the Miners are on “over” surges of 36-15 as a pup, 35-15-1 outside C-USA, 7-1-1 on neutral courts and 5-0 as a neutral-site pup. Butler is a mixed bag with totals, as well, with “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a chalk) and 5-0 on Thursday offset by “over” stretches of 10-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 as a neutral-floor favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Murray State (30-4, 14-13-2 ATS) vs. (4) Vanderbilt (24-8, 16-14 ATS)
Murray State reached the 30-victory plateau by winning 21 of its last 22 games (11-8-1 ATS in lined contests), going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four starts. In the Ohio Valley Conference tourney, the Racers held all three of their opponents to 51 points apiece, including a 62-51 victory over Morehead State as a four-point chalk in the March 6 title game. Murray State averages 77.5 ppg on superb 50.3 percent shooting (third), and holds foes to 60.5 ppg (21st) on 38.6 percent shooting (12th).
Vanderbilt finished second to Kentucky in the SEC East, then went 1-1 SU and ATS in the conference tourney in their home city of Nashville, dropping Georgia 78-66 as an eight-point chalk and losing to Mississippi State 62-52 as a 1˝-point favorite in the semifinals. The Commodores have played six neutral-site contests this season, going 3-3 SU and ATS.
Murray State is back in the Big Dance for the 14th time. The Racers are just 1-13 SU all-time – the lone victory coming against North Carolina State in 1988. In their most recent appearance in 2006, they gave North Carolina a huge scare, eventually falling 69-65 but easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. Vanderbilt, making its 11th Tournament appearance, advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2007 (losing by a single point to Georgetown), dropped an opening-round game to Siena the following year and failed to qualify last season.
The Racers own nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 0-5 against the SEC, 0-5-1 in non-conference play, 1-4 on neutral courts, 2-6 as a neutral-site pup, 3-12 against winning teams, 7-18-1 after a spread-cover and 2-5 after a SU win. The Commodores have gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 Thursday outings and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a chalk, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven tourney contests.
The over has been the play in Murray State’s last four starts as a dog, but the Racers are otherwise on “under” tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 at neutral sites and 10-4-1 in Thursday starts. The under has also hit in four of Vandy’s last five tourney tilts, but the Commodores are on “over” runs of 12-4 overall, 6-0 on Thursday, 11-1 after a SU loss, 15-3 after a non-cover and 6-1 from the favorite’s role.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT
EAST REGION
(at New Orleans)
(9) Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) vs. (8) Texas (24-9, 10-19 ATS)
Wake Forest fell apart down the stretch, losing five of its last six games (3-3 ATS), but still snuck into the field of 65. Last Thursday, the Demon Deacons opened the ACC tourney in embarrassing fashion, getting blown out by Miami 83-62 as a 3˝-point favorite. That was the lone neutral-site game this season for Wake, which has averaged 69 ppg away from home this year and given up a tick more at 70.5 ppg.
Texas has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse this year, starting out 17-0 to reach No. 1 in the country, then going 7-9 SU and an even worse 3-13 ATS the rest of the way to plummet to a No. 8 seed. The Longhorns got pounded by Baylor 86-67 getting one point in the second round of the Big 12 tourney last Thursday. Negatives aside, Rick Barnes’ troops are still one of the top scoring units, averaging 81.2 ppg (seventh) while allowing 69.7, and they are second nationally in rebounding (39.5 per game).
Wake Forest ended a four-year Tournament drought last year, but the journey was brief as it got destroyed by 13th-seeded Cleveland State 84-69 as a 7˝-point favorite. This is the Demon Deacons’ 22nd trip to this event in school history. It’s the Longhorns’ 12th consecutive Tournament appearance and 16th in the last 17 years. During this stretch, Texas 12-3 SU in opening round games, including a 76-62 rout of Minnesota as a 4 ˝-point favorite last March before losing to Duke.
These two teams met in the 1996 Big Dance, with Wake squeaking out a 65-62 second-round victory as an eight-point ‘dog.
Despite their current slide, the Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and are on additional ATS surges of 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 10-1 getting less than seven points and 4-1 as a pup of any price. However, they also carry three lengthy and pertinent ATS skids: 1-10 in the tourney, 6-24 on neutral courts and 4-17 on Thursday.
The Longhorns have also been an up-and-down-bet, with positive ATS runs of 9-4 outside the Big 12, 6-2 against the ACC, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk, combined with pointspread plunges of 7-19 overall (3-17 last 20), 3-14 against winning teams, 3-11 giving points, 5-15-1 after an ATS loss and 2-7 laying less than seven in the Big Dance.
Wake Forest is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 as a pup and 8-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the Deacons also sport “over” rolls of 7-3 in non-conference play, 5-1 in the tourney and 4-0 against the Big 12. Texas is on a plethora of “over” tears, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 in the tourney, 10-4 laying points, 4-1 as a tourney chalk, 7-0 on neutral floors, 5-0 as a neutral-site chalk and 7-1 against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) East Tennessee St. (20-14, 2-1 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (32-2, 17-15 ATS)
East Tennessee State took fifth in the Atlantic Sun Conference, despite winning its last three regular-season games. But the Buccaneers then pirated the conference tourney with three consecutive victories in their only lined games of the year, beating Mercer on its home court 72-66 in the final as a two-point favorite.
Kentucky won its first 19 games of the season (9-8 ATS), stubbed its toe at South Carolina, then won 13 of its last 14 games, with the lone setback in that stretch coming at Tennessee. The Wildcats got through the three-game SEC tourney, edging Alabama in the opener, pounding the Vols by 29 in a payback game, then squeaking past Mississippi State 75-74 in overtime as a seven-point chalk. Kentucky outscores foes by an average of 14 ppg (79.2-65.3) and has the nation’s sixth-best field-goal defense (38.1 percent).
East Tennessee is making its ninth Tournament appearance and second in a row, but it hasn’t won a game since 1992. Last year, hoever, the Buccaneers gave No. 1 seed Pitt a tough time before succumbing 72-62, easily covering the 21-point number.
Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament resume is as impressive as any in the country, as it has reached this event 51 times, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 100-45 SU in the Tournament, but their string of 18 consecutive appearances ended last year. In their most recent contest in this event in 2008, they suffered a 74-66 first-round loss to Marquette – the first time since 1987 that the ‘Cats went one-and-done.
The Bucs have played just 13 lined contests over the past five seasons, though they have done well in Vegas, riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a SU win, 8-2 getting points, 4-1 at neutral-sites, 8-2 as a neutral-floor pup and 11-4 in non-conference play. The Wildcats are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU win, but they are on positive ATS runs of 39-19 following a non-cover, 4-1 on Thursday and 5-2 outside the SEC.
The over is on runs for East Tennessee State of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on neutral courts and 6-2 after a SU win, and Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in non-conference action, 7-2 laying 13 or more points, 5-0 as a tourney chalk of that same price and 8-2 after a non-cover. That said, the ‘Cats are on “under” rolls of 4-1 as a tourney chalk of any price, 7-2 at neutral sites and 5-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
EAST REGION
(at San Jose, Calif.)
(11) Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) vs. (6) Marquette (22-11, 16-10-1 ATS)
Washington ended up getting one of the last slots in the Big Dance by winning its last seven games (6-1 ATS), including a three-game run through the Pac-10 tournament to grab the automatic bid. In Saturday’s final against conference regular-season champ California, Washington won 79-75 as a two-point favorite. Over the last five games, the Huskies have averaged 77.0 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowed 66.6 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting.
Marquette was one of the hotter teams in the country late in the season, winning nine of its last 11 regular-season games in the rugged Big East, including three overtime victories. The Golden Eagles then nabbed two wins in the conference tourney before getting trounced by Georgetown 80-57 as a 3˝-point pup in Friday’s semifinals. Marquette has gone 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) on neutral courts this year, outscoring opponents by an average of just a point per game (66.7-65.7).
Washington has made it to the Tournament 14 previous times, including last year as a No. 5 seed, when it beat 12th-seeded Mississippi State 71-58 (as a 6˝-point favorite), then fell to No. 4 seed Purdue 76-74 (as a one-point chalk) in the second round. The Huskies have won three straight first-round contests, cashing in the last two.
Marquette is making its fifth straight trip to the Big Dance and the 28th in all. The Golden Eagles have scored first-round victories each of the last two years – including a 58-57 win over Utah State in 2009 (falling short as a six-point chalk – but got eliminated in the second round both times.
Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Huskies are on spread-covering upturns of 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in the Tournament, but they also shoulder ATS slides of 3-9 outside the Pac-10, 1-5 getting points, 1-5 on Thursday and 2-6 as a neutral-site ‘dog.
The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven tourney starts and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference contests, but they remain on positive ATS rolls of 6-1 on Thursday, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 11-4-1 against winning teams and 9-3 versus teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is 17-8 in Washington’s last 25 non-conference games, but the Huskies are on “over” surges of 5-1 as a neutral-site pup, 15-4 on Thursday, 17-7 after a spread-cover and 24-11 coming off a SU win. The under is 6-0 in Marquette’s last six as a chalk and 4-0 in its last four as a neutral-site favorite, but the Golden Eagles are also on “over” sprees of 10-2 in the Big Dance, 5-1 as a tourney chalk and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE and OVER
(14) Montana (22-9, 17-11 ATS) vs. (3) New Mexico (29-4, 18-12-2 ATS)
Montana enters the Big Dance on a 9-2 SU run (8-2 ATS in lined games), sweeping through three games in the Big Sky tourney (2-0 ATS), including a 66-65 come-from-behind upset of top-seeded host Weber State as a 3˝-point pup in the March 10 final. In that contest, the Grizzlies rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit. Montana, averaging 70.0 ppg and allowing 61.2, is among the nation’s top shooting teams, hitting 48.6 percent from the floor (12th), including a solid 40.4 percent from three-point range (eighth).
New Mexico went through the final two months of the regular season without losing, going 14-0 SU (8-5-1 ATS) to win the Mountain West regular-season crown. The Lobos then routed Air Force in the conference tournament quarterfinals, but were upset by San Diego State 72-69 Friday as a 2˝-point chalk in the semis. Steve Alford’s squad was consistent regardless of venue this year, outscoring foes 76.6-67.1 overall, 75.6-69.8 on the highway and 77.8-70.2 at neutral sites.
Montana is back in the Big Dance for the eighth time, the most recent being in 2006, when it upset Nevada in the opening round (87-79 as a five-point underdog). The Grizzlies’ only other Tournament victory came in 1975. This is New Mexico’s 12th Tournament appearance and first since 2005, when it lost in the first round to Villanova. The Lobos’ last Big Dance victory came in 1999.
The Grizzlies are on ATS rolls of 8-2 overall, 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1 outside the Big Sky, 5-1 catching points, 4-1 against the Mountain West and 6-2 after a SU win. The lone negative: a 3-8 ATS mark as a pup of seven to 12˝ points.
The Lobos are in ATS funks of 1-5 overall (0-5 as a favorite), 2-8 at neutral courts and 1-7 as a neutral-floor favorite, but they’ve cashed in their last four against Big Sky foes and are on additional positive ATS stretches of 7-1 after a non-cover and 35-17-2 in non-conference play.
Montana is on “under” runs of 6-0 as a pup, 7-1 in non-conference action and 7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but the over is 7-2 in the Grizzlies’ last nine overall, 6-1 in their last seven after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight following a SU win. New Mexico is on “over” sprees of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-1 against the Big Sky and 5-2 on Thursday, though the under is 9-3 in the Lobos’ last dozen games following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO
SOUTH REGION
(at Providence, R.I.)
(10) St. Mary’s (26-5, 19-10 ATS) vs. (7) Richmond (26-8, 18-10-2 ATS)
St. Mary’s upset Gonzaga 81-62 as a 4˝-point underdog in the West Coast Conference championship game in Las Vegas back on March 8 to capture the conference’s automatic bid. The victory over Gonzaga gives the Gaels a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) coming into this contest, and going back to Christmas Day they’re 16-3 SU (with two of the three defeats coming to Gonzaga).
The Spiders made it all the way to the Atlantic 10 tournament championship game Sunday, but came up short against Temple, losing 56-52 and pushing as a four-point underdog. Richmond is 12-2 SU and 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games, with both SU defeats coming by four points each. In fact, Richmond’s last seven games have been nail-biters, with victory margins of 4, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4 and 4 points (and three of the games went to overtime).
This is the second time in three years and the sixth time in all that St. Mary’s has gone dancing, but the Gaels haven’t won a first-round contest since 1959 – their very first tourney appearance. In 2008, they got spanked by Miami, Fla., falling 78-64 as a 1˝-point favorite.
In gaining an at-large berth, Richmond returns to the Field of 65 for the first time since 2004 (and the eighth time in school history). The Spiders last won a tourney game in 1998 (62-61 over South Carolina as a 7˝-point underdog).
Both teams have excelled in neutral-site games this year, with St. Mary’s going 4-1 SU and ATS and Richmond posting a 5-1 mark (4-1-1 ATS).
The Gaels are on pointspread hot streaks of 19-6-1 in non-conference games, 15-7 after a victory and 12-4 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 1-8 ATS in their last nine as a neutral-site underdog. Richmond has failed to cover in four of its last five as a favorite and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last four on five on Thursday, but otherwise the Spiders are on spread-covering runs of 10-2-2 overall, 7-3 in non-league action, 6-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0-1 as a chalk of less than seven points and 23-7-2 after a SU loss.
St. Mary’s has stayed under the total in eight of 10 overall, seven of eight after a SU win, four straight on Thursday, five of seven at neutral sites and four straight as an underdog at neutral venues. On the flip side, the over is 9-3-1 in the Gaels’ last 13 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 20-7 in their last 27 non-conference tilts. Also, Richmond is on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 8-3 when laying less than seven points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICHMOND
(15) Robert Morris (23-11, 3-4 ATS) vs. (2) Villanova (24-7, 18-12 ATS)
Robert Morris swept three games in the Northeast Conference tournament last weekend, finishing it with a 52-50 upset victory over Quinnipiac as a 4 ˝-point underdog eight days ago. The Colonials have won 19 of their last 23 games, though one of the defeats came against Pittsburgh (77-53 on the road), which like Villanova plays in the Big East.
The Wildcats jumped out to a 22-2 start to the season and looked like a lock for a No. 1 seed. However, they fell apart down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games, including an 80-76 upset loss to Minnesota as a five-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament a week ago. After averaging 85.3 ppg during its 22-2 start, Villanova dropped to 72.9 ppg during its season-ending 2-5 slump.
Robert Morris snapped a 17-year Tournament drought last year, but it didn’t hang around long, losing to Michigan State 77-62 and just missing as a 14˝-point underdog. The Colonials are 1-6 all-time in six tourney appearances.
Villanova is going dancing for the fifth straight season and the 31st overall. Last year, the Wildcats advanced to the Final Four for the first time since winning their only national championship in 1985, but they were no match for eventual champion North Carolina, losing 83-69 in the semifinals.
The Colonials, who rarely play lined contests, are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games that have featured a betting line. Meanwhile, not only did Villanova struggle on the scoreboard down the stretch, but it failed to cash in eight of its final 11 games after starting out 15-4 ATS. The Wildcats are also in ATS slumps of 2-10 on Thursday, 2-6 as a favorite and 2-6 as a favorite in the Tournament. However, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five at neutral sites (all as a chalk) and 5-1 ATS in their last six when laying 13 points or more regardless of venue.
Villanova is on “over” runs of 17-8 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 14-6 as a favorite, 6-2 when laying 13 points or more and 6-2 on Thursday. Also, the Colonials topped the posted price in two of their three conference tournament games, their only contests this year that featured a total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and OVER
SOUTH REGION
(at New Orleans)
(14) Sam Houston State (25-7, 3-2 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (25-7, 16-9 ATS)
Sam Houston State swept three games in last week’s Southland Conference tournament to claim just its second Tournament bid in school history. After barely getting past Nicholls State (62-57) and Southeastern Louisiana (88-85) in the first two rounds, the Bearkats had no problems in the championship game, pounding Stephen F. Austin 64-48 as a 3˝-point chalk. Going back to Jan. 9, Sam Houston State is 17-2 SU, and it is a perfect 5-0 in neutral-site games (3-2 ATS).
The Bears’ five-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks ended in the Big 12 tournament semifinals with an 82-75 loss to Kansas State as a two-point underdog. Still, they’ve won eight of their last 12 overall. Also, Baylor is 4-2 SU and ATS in neutral-site games this year, averaging 74.7 ppg on 48 percent shooting while holding opponents to 66.8 ppg (38.7 percent).
Sam Houston State’s only previous Big Dance appearance came in 2003, and it wasn’t a memorable one as the Bearkats get thumped by Florida, 85-55 as a 20˝-point favorite. Meanwhile, Baylor is making just its third trip to the Tournament since 1950, which is also the last time the Bears won a game. In 1988, they suffered a 15-point opening-round loss to Memphis, then waited 20 years before they got another shot in 2008, when they stumbled to Purdue 90-79.
The Bearkats have cashed in five of their last seven lined neutral-site games and they’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight out of conference. Baylor is on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-0 in non-league action, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a favorite and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Sam Houston as an underdog, 5-2 for Sam Houston in non-conference action, 4-0 for the Bears overall and 4-0 for the Bears as a favorite of 7 to 12˝ points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(11) Old Dominion (26-8, 13-17 ATS) vs. (6) Notre Dame (23-11, 17-10-1 ATS)
Old Dominion brings a five-game winning streak into this contest, with three of those coming in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. The Monarchs took both the regular-season and conference tournament titles, the latter following a 60-53 victory over William & Mary 10 days ago (failing to cash as a nine-point favorite). ODU has won 20 of its last 24 games, but prior to winning the CAA Tournament in Richmond, Va., the Monarchs had lost their first two neutral-site games (SU and ATS) to Missouri and Mississippi State
Notre Dame caught fire down the stretch to gain an at-large berth out of the Big East. The Irish went on a 3-7 slump from mid-January to mid-February, then turned it on and won six in a row (SU and ATS) before coming up just short to West Virginia in the Big East semifinals, losing 53-51, but again cashing as a five-point underdog for its eighth straight spread-cover. Including the Big East tourney, coach Mike Bray’s squad is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS at neutral venues.
Old Dominion returns to this event for the first time since 2007, when it lost to fifth-seeded Butler 57-46 as a two-point underdog in the opening round. The Monarchs are 2-9 all-time in the tourney, their last victory coming in 1995.
This marks the 30th time in school history that Notre Dame has reached the Tournament, most recently making it in 2008 when it pounded George Mason (68-50 as a 6˝-point favorite) in the first round before getting ousted by Washington State. The Irish are 4-1 SU in their last five opening-round games.
The Monarchs, who failed to get the cash in the CAA title game against William & Mary, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven versus the Big East. From there, though, they’re in ATS ruts of 7-18 at neutral sites, 2-7 in non-conference action, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-9 against winning teams 1-6 as an underdog, 0-8 as a neutral-site pup and 0-6 when catching less than seven points at neutral venues.
In addition to their 8-0 ATS run to end the regular season, the Irish are on ATS surges of 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Thursday, 15-5-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 as a favorite of less than seven points.
Old Dominion has topped the total in seven of eight overall and six of seven after a victory, while the over is 4-0 in Notre Dame’s last four non-Big East tussles and 7-3 in its last 10 on Thursday.
However, the Monarchs are also on “under” runs of 8-2 in non-conference play, 5-2 at neutral sites, 8-3 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 7-3 when catching less than seven points anywhere and 5-2 on Thursday. Also, the Irish are on “under” runs of 7-0 overall, 5-0-1 in the Tournament (5-0 as a Tournament favorite of less than seven points), 14-3 at neutral sites, 10-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 21-5 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME and UNDER
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#198409 - 03/18/10 09:26 AM
Re: 3/18
[Re: tinfw17]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Craig Davis
30 Dime – SAN DIEGO STATE
15 Dime – NORTHERN IOWA
10 Dime – WASHINGTON
SAN DIEGO STATE --- I am absolutely not falling for this trap line and neither should you. This line BEGS you to take Tennessee, doesn't it? I mean, think about it... here we have a well-known team from the SEC against a bunch of "nobodies" from the Mountain West Conference, and I've actually heard a few people say that if San Diego State didn't get their "miracle" win against UNLV they wouldn't even be in this tournament. Really? Maybe they're right... shoot, I hope they are. If that's the case, that means this line is even more screwed up than I originally thought. A 6-seed giving three or four points to an 11-seed is a joke, especially when the 11-seed has to travel all the way across the country for a night game. Either Vegas really screwed up here or they are just waiting to cash in on all the fools who bet Tennessee.
Honestly, has there been a more erratic team in college hoops this year than the Vols? The same team that beat Kansas and Kentucky also lost to Florida, Vanderbilt (twice), Georgia, and USC. And I'm not sure I understand the notion that the SEC is some power conference... remember, this isn't football, this is basketball. The SEC was no better than the Mountain West this year and it will be interesting to see how these two conferences fare when all is said and done.
San Diego State, on the other hand, has been one of the hotter teams to close out the season, dropping just one of their last 10 games, beating UNLV twice and New Mexico once along the way. After a two-point loss to lowly Wyoming and a 10-point loss at UNLV, the team had a players-only meeting to challenge each other, and from that January 13th meeting till today, the Aztecs have lost just three times (vs. BYU, at New Mexico, and at BYU again). This team is built on team defense and dominating the boards, and although Tennessee probably has the advantage at the guard spot, it's not a huge advantage like San Diego State will have inside.
In San Diego State's last win over UNLV, Kawhi Leonard had 16 points and 21 rebounds as the Aztecs won the battle of the boards 36-24. In fact, it's a rare occurrence when the Aztecs DON'T win the rebounding battle... and I have a feeling it's going to be the same today.
As a dog of between 1 and 4.5 points the Aztecs are a salty 4-1 ATS and 10-7 ATS in 17 games away from home. Tennessee is just 7-9-1 ATS away from Knoxville and 6-10-1 ATS in night games. I'm sorry, but I just don't believe in this year's Tennessee team with all the issues they've had to deal with. Great season for coach Pearl, but I think it ends tonight.
NORTHERN IOWA --- Tend to side with the better defensive team when the line is a basic pick 'em. This selection has nothing to do with UNLV or the fact they ended the season on the sour note by scoring 45 points in the MWC tournament. This selection is because I believe in Northern Iowa, I believe in their defensive toughness and I believe in C Jordan Edsleger. The Rebels have but one real advantage in this game... speed and quickness. If this game becomes a track meet I believe UNLV could win by 10 or more. But I don't believe for a second the Panthers will allow the Rebels to dictate the tempo. In at least 90% of their games the Panthers dictated the very "boring" pace which led to a lot of 58-54 type games. And if you consider this team hits around 75% of their free throws, it won't matter if they are hitting open jumpers or drawing fouls by penetrating to the cup, Northern Iowa is going to score. UNLV will do everything they can to quicken the pace, but when UNI imposes its will on you, it's nearly impossible to make them run with you. I believe Northern Iowa is the real deal and could cause problems not only today but for the rest of the tournament, depending on how far they go.
WASHINGTON --- With only two teams from this conference in the tournament, you'd expect both of them to play their very best in every game to represent. Although the Pac 10 gets a lot of criticism for being a very "average" conference, I still believe both Cal and Washington are quality teams that can make some noise against a few teams that might take them for granted. Today is a perfect example. Marquette played a very tough Big East schedule and finished with a winning record while Washington struggled to get above .500 and lost several games they should have won. But when you match two teams that have equal talent, can both shoot the 3 well, and don't play a ton of defense, not to mention the fact you have a lot more size on one side than the other, you can't help but lean one way. Washington is on a seven-game winning streak and they're doing it by getting production from their guards, pounding the boards and getting timely scoring inside, and hitting their free throws. Nothing against Marquette, but I think they're catching Washington at the wrong time.
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FREAK
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