O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
Date: Friday, March 19, 2010
$50.00 Guaranteed:
#823 TONIGHT’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” NCAA TOURNAMENT BEST BET TOTAL (Vermont versus Syracuse UNDER 144 in a 9:30 eastern tipoff on CBS): Yesterday we saw a pair of extremely high scoring affairs in the “1 versus 16” matchups as both Kentucky and Kansas reached the 90-point plateau against opposition from very small conferences who obviously had major defensive issues. In the case of the “Lehigh/Kansas” tilt I personally placed a wager on above the total due to the fact that statistically Lehigh was a successful offense when shooting the basketball from “three point” territory but that is NOT the case in this “david versus goliath” evening matchup. The bottom line is that Vermont is the second-WORST “three point” shooting team from the little America-East Conference and posted spot reflects that fact. Tonight’s total is relatively low even though Syracuse all year has been one of the highest scoring offenses in the country averaging more than 81 points per game on approaching 52% shooting from the floor. This relatively low spot is even more curious when taking into account the horrendous defense that Syracuse flashed in the most recent pair of outings which both resulted in losses on the scoreboard. The last time we saw the Orangemen on the floor was an ugly 91-84 Big East tournament setback where the defense took the night off against a Georgetown attack that was less than prolific. Despite Syracuse playing above the total at a 5-1 clip down the stretch they have had plenty of time to grab some rest as the defense did not have to participate in most of the Big East tourney tilts which were for the most part very physical. One of the keys to this total has to do with INJURIES to some of Syracuse’s best shooters as lead scorer Wesley Johnson actually showed up on the injury report with an eye problem that leaves him less than 100% effective. The big news is that Orangemen starting center Arinze Onuaku (quad) will NOT play at all this evening and he just happens to be the school career leader in field goal percentage nailing near 65% of all shot opportunities from the floor. It turns out that Onuaku will be able to participate in later NCAA contest but at the very least is being held out tonight. Getting back to the subject of Vermont they are coming off a very high scoring 83-70 shootout in the America-East Championship game where the team was nailing “treys” right and left from long range. As mentioned near the top of this analysis Vermont is NOT a proficient shooting squad from long range so that performance was in my mind a mere aberration. What Vermont depends on is a stingy DEFENSE which in the postseason alone has permitted on average below 56 points per contest. In the America-East tournament semifinals that Vermont defense amazingly held an opponent to just 38 POINTS for the entire contest. In the past two years the Vermont defense has held the opposition to BELOW 50 total points on the scoreboard 8 different times. Even more mind boggling is the fact that this season Vermont allowed only 18 POINTS in an entire half twice which gives you an idea how proficient they are. As for Syracuse their defense for the entire season has permitted on average just 67 points per contest and I expect Jim Boeheim’s crew to find that defensive intensity again because in the past five outings they have given up (79 ppg) a very high average which may have been due to pure fatigue. One of the keys to Jim Boeheim’s long success at Syracuse has been his infamous “2-3 matchup zone” defense which has constantly confused the opposition who does not have the experience against that type of setup. Vermont’s offensive star is Marqus Blakely who is the only player in the country to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks and steals. What catches my attention with Blakely is that he is a three-time conference “DEFENSIVE player of the year” as he as amassed more than 200 blocked shots and steals in his career. At the beginning of this campaign Syracuse was looked at as a potential “bubble” team due to their overall youth. Due to their youth a very strong totals SYSTEM comes into play. Here is a 65-PERCENT SYSTEM (118-68 since 1997) which plays very young “neutral court” teams like Syracuse after a game where they allowed 80+ points on the scoreboard UNDER the total, with just 2 returning starters. As reflected by the relatively low posted total this particular “1 versus 16” matchup is the only one of the four where we have a pair of DEFENSIVE oriented sides and I am taking full advantage
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.
FREAK
Previous Topic
Index