Craig Davis

25 Dime – OHIO
25 Dime – BAYLOR
25 Dime – WASHINGTON

OHIO --- I'm still scratching my head about this line. Tennessee has no business giving 9 points to anyone... even Ohio. Did Vegas not watch what the Bobcats just did to a very good Georgetown team Thursday, or do they not believe this team is capable of doing it again? Well, I guess I don't care what Vegas thinks, I like Ohio and I think they have a very good shot of pulling the upset here. I'm sorry, but Tennessee just doesn't excite me at all. They aren't spectacular defensively, they don't run a lot of sets that would concern me as a coach (kind of a street-ball type offense), and although they do have some athletes, I'm not sure they're even as athletic, top to bottom, as Ohio. All I've heard is how the Bobcats were 9th in the MAC during the regular season and how lucky they were to even be invited to the tourney (automatic bid for winning the conference tournament). Forget that crap... I don't care how they did back in January... I want to know what you've done for me lately, and what they've done is knock off Georgetown and Akron (the MAC regular season champ) in their last two and have been winners of eight of their last ten. Meanwhile, Tennessee is simply too erratic for me, nearly dropping a game to San Diego State in the opening round of the tournament and, before that, getting kicked in the teeth by Kentucky. I just don't trust them. They shoot 67% from the line as a team and they don't defend the 3 well. Ohio G Armon Bassett said it best after their win over the Hoyas... "we know we're probably not going to be the best team in any game in this tournament, we're just trying to be the best team that night." Well said. I think they'll be the better team today and even if they don't win outright, they'll cover the 9 points or so.

BAYLOR --- It was a fun ride while it lasted for the Monarchs, but all good things must come to an end. After their improbable win over Notre Dame in which the Irish couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in the second half, I just don't see any way they can keep a very athletic Baylor team down. The only chance ODU has to win this game is if they play the best defense of their lives and hope to score more than 60 themselves. All season Old Dominion has been about defense... but that's not necessarily such a tough thing playing in the Colonial Athletic Association, especially considering Baylor has been playing teams from the Big 12 all season and still scoring points. The Bears played, quite possibly, their worst game in quite some time vs. Sam Houston in the first round of the tourney and still nearly covered the number. But what really impressed me about the Bears Thursday was the fact they really played good defense, holding Sam Houston nearly 30 points below their season average. If Baylor can play that type of defense today and still get the same contribution on the offensive end from Carter and Dunn, this game could be decided by double digits. Old Dominion will keep this close for a while because they can shoot the 3 and can play defense, but they aren't all that deep and will eventually run out of steam. I like the Bears minus the small number.

WASHINGTON --- As I mentioned in my analysis of New Mexico State yesterday, I closely followed these teams out west very closely as I feel this is where a tremendous amount of value is in the betting world. Most folks on the east coast and central time zones don't stay up long enough to watch these West Coast games... but I do. And two teams that helped me make a lot of money this season were Washington and New Mexico. I backed the Lobos 6 times this year, winning four times and losing only twice. I backed the Huskies two times and played against them twice... 3-1. Needless to say, I feel like I know these two teams, and I'm telling you right now New Mexico is overmatched if Washington takes care of business. They score more points, they shoot better from the field and free throw line, and they play slightly better defense. Washington enters today's game off a very impressive come-from-behind win over Marquette while New Mexico struggled down the stretch to beat a very mundane Montana team (and they actually trailed at halftime). New Mexico F Darington Hobson scored 11 points and grabbed 11 boards in Thursday's win over the Grizzlies, but he's listed as questionable. Folks, I think Washington is just getting going. They were my pre-season pick to win the Pac 10 and although they didn't win the regular season title, they did win the tourney against a very good Cal team. Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall while New Mexico has failed to cover 9 of their last 11 neutral site games. Too much firepower for the Huskies as I see them marching on to the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed.

Will Cover

4* Ohio
3* St Mary's

John Ryan

Free

3* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Kentucky set to start at 8:45 EST in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Wake will lose this game by fewer than 9 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 115-66 ATS since 1997. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games facing an opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. We really like Wake Forest HC Gaudio and how he prepares very well for elite teams. Note that he is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals. Take Wake

Marc Lawrence

Free

When the Tar Heels take on the Bulldogs at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville in 2nd round action of the NIT today they will do so knowing North Carolina has cleaned up in games against the SEC, going 24-7 SU and 21-9-1 ATS, including 10-1 SU and ATS of late. In addition, UNC is the defending national champion ad was ranked No. 5 in the preseason polls this year. With MSU just 3-6 SU in head-to-head battles with teams out of the ACC, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of six or more points, look for the Heels to continue to repair their image here today. Grab the points

Jimmy Boyd

Free

1 Unit on Washington Huskies -1

We cashed in with Washington in round one, and it is worth a small play again today. Led by Quincy Pondexter, the Huskies are on some kind of a role. They have won 8 straight and covered the spread in 7 of those. This is a very confident team right now, and I'm giving them the edge for heading into the Sweet 16. I can't look past the fact that New Mexico is on a 2-11 ATS skid when playing away from home versus good offensive teams, scoring 77 or more points per game, after 15+ games, losing to these teams by an average score of 69.1 to 80.2. The Lobos are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Take Washington.

Matt Fargo

Free

Murray St. is a very tough matchup for Butler. The Racers are quick, deep and athletic and being as balanced as they are makes them tough to defend because there is no one player to key on. Murray St. has six players averaging between 9.5 ppg and 10.6 ppg and it simply does not get more balanced than that. To be fair, the Ohio Valley Conference is far from a strong conference and the only real non-conference test came at California early in the season where the Racers lost by only five points. As good and balanced as the offense is, Murray St. relies a lot on a strong defense that held opponents to just 38.9 percent shooting from the floor. Because they are so quick, they force a ton of turnovers, close to 17 per game, and they allowed opponents to post a 0.67 assist/turnover ratio. While the OVC is weak as mentioned, the Horizon League is not much better. That is the main reason that Butler has won 21 straight games and a reason why that streak is in jeopardy. The Bulldogs played a near flawless second half against UTEP on Thursday where it made 10 three-pointers and was able to easily erase a six-point halftime deficit. This team is very good, don’t get me wrong, but it pays more often than not to actually go against teams that are coming off such a good effort. Prior to the win over the Miners, the Bulldogs had a nice win over Siena during Bracket Buster weekend but other than that, nothing else stands out. Sure they defeated Ohio St. back in December but if Even Turner played that game, things would have turned out differently. A one-point win at home over Xavier was the only other win against a tournament team so the resume is far from impressive. The public will see that long winning streak and a short line and be all over the Bulldogs and that is already the case as of Friday night where the majority of the action is on them. Murray St. got a fortunate break to make it to this game but it carries that momentum forward on Saturday. 3* Murray St. Racers

Round 2 Trends

There was only one upset last year in the second round, as the better seeds, all favored, went 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS (69%). OVER the total was 12-4 (75%).

Sunday is the more popular upset day of the opening weekend, with 36 of the 61 lower seed wins happening then. In fact, the worse seeds own a straight up record of 36-48 SU, or 42.9%. They are also 47-41 ATS, 53.0%.

Double-digit favorites in the second round are on a he run of 23-0 SU & 17-6 ATS (74%) since ‘01.

#1 seeds have really picked up the scoring in their second round games, going 28-15 OVER (65%) while scoring 80 PPG.

#2 seed’s that win their opening round game are just 11-16 ATS (41%) in the second round. When favored by 6-points or less, they are just 6-14 ATS (30%) in their L20. Their last seven games have gone OVER the total.

All eight #3 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the last two tournaments, boasting a 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS record in Round Two. They are also 8-3-1 OVER the total since ’07 (73%).

The #4 seeds should be on upset alert in the second round, with just a 16-18 SU & 11-23 ATS (32%) mark since ’98.

Upset winners from the first round are just 4-11 ATS (27%) when trying to pull off another upset in the second round over the last two years.

In second round games where a double-digit numbered seed has met one #6 or worse, the better seed is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS (100%) over the L10 years.

Derek Mancini

20 Old Dominion +4.5
5 Wake Forest +9.5

VEGAS EXPERTS

Upset alert! Lower seeded team favored and you can probably guess what that means. We played against New Mexico on Thursday and it appeared as if the Lobos couldn't wait for the game to end once they built a lead. Had the kid for Montana who went for 42 in the Big Sky Championship been able to hit ANYTHING, the Grizzlies would have advanced. UNM was never really "in the money" while Washington made an outstanding comeback against Marquette, shooting 54.5%. After underachieving for most of the year, UW has won eight straight, covering seven of those games. They have shot 50% or better in five of those games.

Play on: Washington

Jimmy Boyd

5* Tennessee
4* Wake Forest
3* Villanova

charlie

cbb. kansas st vs byu over 155 (500* must win or the rest of the ncaa tournament picks only are free (No NBA included.)

cbb. ohio u+8' (30*)
cbb. murry state+5 (20*)
cbb. northern iowa+11' (20*)
cbb. washington-2 (10*)

TEDDY COVERS

Baylor
Washington
Bobcats

SEABASS

200.Steam. Wash coll
100 Jacksonville
100 BYU
100 Tennessee
100 Villanova
50 Butler
50 Baylor
50 Wake Forest

100 NHL Buffalo under

Tom Freese

15* UNDERDOG WINNER EARLY

St. Mary's

Marc Lawrence 4*

Villanova -4.5

Ferringo 3.20.10

1.5-Unit Play. Take #529 Washington (-2) over New Mexico (5:50 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #520 Baylor (-4.5) over Old Dominion (5:45 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #516 Villanova (-4.5) over St. Mary’s (1 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


1-Unit Play. Take #521 Wake Forest (+9.5) over Kentucky (8 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


1-Unit Play. Take #518 Tennessee (-8.5) over Ohio (3:30 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Kansas State (-4.5) over BYU (8 p.m., Saturday, March 20)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #518 Tennessee (-3.5) over Ohio (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #521 Wake Forest (+14.5) over Kentucky (8 p.m.)

Bob Akmens


Pick Wash -1.5 vs N Mex
Pick Denver -10.5 vs Milw
Pick Philli -130 vs Carolina
Buffalo vs Fla Under 5.5
Nash vs Col Over 5.5

Goodfella 3/20

2* Washington -2

Bookie basher 3/20

Murray St 100 dime

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends

*200 Tennessee -8 (CBB)
*200 Kansas State -4 (CBB)
*300 Butler -4 (CBB)