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#198863 - 03/22/10 03:46 PM
Re: 3/22
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Matt Fargo
Free
This line is extremely high for two teams that are not that far off from each other. Both College of Charleston and VCU won their first round games on the road and it is the Rams that get to host another game. Even though VCU won the first game in this CBI tournament, it is not especially happy about being here. It was far from a solid effort against George Washington as that game resembled one with two teams weren’t thrilled with looking for the win and it came down to who didn’t want to lose more. While winning that first game usually helps the motivating factor going forward, I’m not sure how much it will help here. The Rams were disappointed at being snubbed by the NIT and they were not shy about letting people know. The Rams tied for fifth in the CAA regular season and knew they had to win the tournament to make the NCAA field. After losing to Old Dominion in overtime in the CAA semifinals, finishing with an RPI of 66 and a strength of schedule of 142, the 32-team NIT seemed a certain fallback. Eleven at-large teams with RPI’s not as good as VCU’s were selected ahead of the Rams. "I'd say shock would be putting it mildly. Shock along with disbelief," VCU Athletic Director Norwood Teague said of his reaction. "I don't think there's any way that you can defend [that with] what we've done, after all the preaching we get at the mid-major level about our RPI and [11] at-larges had an RPI higher than ours.” The thing is that is actually costs the home team roughly $60,000 to host one of these games plus pay the expenses of the opponents so it is safe to say the Rams would rather be on the road. The Cougars were one of the last teams selected to have their season continue when they were chosen to the field for the CBI. While it isn’t the NCAA Tournament, which was the Cougars’ ultimate goal, head coach Bobby Cremins will be more than happy to get his seniors a couple more games, not to mention get some more court time for a couple of younger players. Charleston won at Eastern Kentucky in the opening round with a depleted roster as five players did not make the trip due to academic issues but most are back tonight even though the playing time for each is small. The matchup is pretty even and Charleston is 6-0 ATS this season coming off a road win as well as being 9-2 ATS this season coming off a win by six points or less. 3* College of Charleston Cougars
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FREAK
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#198868 - 03/22/10 03:47 PM
Re: 3/22
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Sac Lawson
Free play
Morehead St. +1.5
That aside, I know a lot of sharp minds will be all over Boston today, and quite frankly.. Here's why I disagree. A lot of Boston's game plan has to do with making three point shots.. and I'll give it to em.. they shoot jumpers quite well. Surprisingly enough though, Morehead is actually the BETTER three-point shooting team. I realize the home court advantage may skew some people to the Boston side when it comes to a jump shooting contest, but hear me out. "The Roof" as they call it, in Boston, is one of those gyms that has nothing behind the baskets. No big bleachers behind the hoops, just walls, and on top of it, the gym is actually pretty bright. I realize most people don't hold much weight to this kind of thing, but i'll tell you right now, in a gym where the scenery behind the hoop never changes, it's very very easy for road teams to adjust. It's like playing in a high school gym. From a former basketball player, trust me guys.. there are certain gyms that ANYONE can shoot in, and this is one of those. I have absolutely no reason to believe Morehead won't shoot to their season average tonight.
I'm 100% not sold on Boston's ability to play defense. I realize a lot of stat guys are going to disagree, but having ACTUALLY SEEN this team play 3 times this season, I know for a fact that their numbers are not indicative of their actual ability to contend jumpers. They play in a very very weak conference, and aside from Stony Brook and Vermont, there is not one team in that league with decent scoring threats. As a result, Boston's defensive stats are greatly skewed.
Two huge edges for Morehead... Rebounding, and Turnovers. Morehead is not an extremely tall team, but their one big man (Kenny Faried) is an absolute force, and their guards crash the boards with amazing efficiency as well. This is one of the best rebounding teams I've seen all year for the amount of size they have. Also, they're a team that is very scrappy and risk-seeking on defense. They force turnovers at a crazy rate, and you put that along with the rebounding edge, and it leads me to seriously think that Morehead could get 10 more shot attempts this evening. Anytime your opponent gets more FGA's, it makes it hard to win.. that's just the nature of the beast.
Listen guys, Morehead is more athletic, they have better scorers, they are 15-20 spots ahead of Boston in just about every power ranking out there. Do not be fooled by one good performance against Oregon State, this Boston team is not great defensively, they don't rebound too well, and their home court is very inviting (not just because of aesthetics, but because it only seats 1,800). Do not be surprised if Morehead goes into The Roof and wins this game by 20 points.
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FREAK
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#198872 - 03/22/10 03:47 PM
Re: 3/22
[Re: FREAK]
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2007 Bad Man Champion
Registered: 12/01/00
Posts: 71407
Loc: Time to play the Game
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Jeff Benton
Free
For Monday, it’s back to the NBA and I’ll back Chicago as a small home favorite against the Rockets. Amazing what a difference a healthy roster makes. With Derrick Rose, Loul Deng and Joakim Noah nursing various ailments, Chicago suffered an untimely 10-game losing skid that dropped the team out of the playoff race. But Rose and Noah returned Saturday, and the Bulls rolled to a 98-84 road victory as a 4˝-point underdog. And while Noah played just nine minutes (gabbing four rebounds), Rose was a force with a game-high 23 points, five assists and four rebounds.
Deng still remains out with a calf injury, but Rose obviously appears fully recovered from a wrist injury, and Noah’s minutes figure to increase as his foot injury continues to improve. Besides, even prior to Saturday’s rout at Philly, the Bulls were showing signs of turning the corner. Facing three playoff contenders (Memphis, Dallas and Cleveland), Chicago fought to the finish and covered in all three games. That means they enter today on a 4-0 ATS run.
As for Houston, it has picked things up lately, winning four of the last five including yesterday’s come-from-behind 116-112 win at New York. But the Rockets are in a tough scheduling spot here, in the middle of a three-road-games-in-four-days stretch. And the last 14 times the Rockets played on back-to-back nights, they failed to cover the spread 12 times! Additionally, Houston is in ATS slumps of 5-15 against the Eastern Conference, 2-7 after a SU victory, 1-5 against Central Division teams and 2-7 as an underdog of less than five points.
Meanwhile, the Bulls are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 against Southwest Division teams (Spurs, Rockets, Mavs, Hornets) and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against the Western Conference. And even though the Rockets BARELY got the money yesterday in New York (four-point win as a three-point chalk), they’ve cashed in consecutive games just twice since Jan. 2 – a stretch of 35 games.
5* CHICAGO BULLS
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