Dave Malinsky
4* #862 BOSTON/SACRAMENTO Under
To say that the Sacramento Kings are a much easier team to guard without Tyreke Evans on the floor would be one of the major understatements of the NBA season. Except that the markets are not pricing that impact properly at all - in the last three games without him the Kings played 3-0 to the Under, by a collective 55 points from the projected Totals. We call for more of the same here, in a game in which both the underdog and the favorite bring the right game plans for our purposes.
There is only one way for Sacramento to hang around on the road against a quality opponent without Evans – slow the game down as much as possible, and hope to keep it close until the latter stages. And while many times the chalk would be looking to force the Kings out of that tempo, it suits Doc Rivers just fine. This is a classic MTG (“Manage the Game”) setting for Rivers, who needs to get a win (the Celtics are tied with Atlanta for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference), but nothing more than that. So off of a recent grueling stretch that included that Houston/Dallas/Utah road cycle, followed by Wednesday’s revenge home showdown vs. the Nuggets, and with four straight against winning opponents coming up, the focus is merely to get the ‘W’ and move on, taxing the legs of the key cogs as little as possible.
Rivers is a master at this. Since January 1st Boston has gone 4-1 to the Under laying double figures at home, the only Over coming in a game that the Celtics lost outright, and were unable to manage the pace. They are tied for #2 on our best defensive ratings, and can completely shut down the limited arsenal that Sacramento brings, all the while being in no hurry at all on offense, simply taking care of business and saving energy for Sunday night’s nationally televised showcase vs. San Antonio.
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