SCOTT RICKENBACH
8* Friday OVER 5.5 goals in Chicago
In their first two games before the Olympic Break the Canucks played to a total of at least seven goals each time. In their first two games after the break it was the same story for Vancouver. As a result it’s been four straight overs for Vancouver and it’s been a similar story for Chicago of late. The Blackhawks played to a total of at least seven goals in each of their three games prior to the break. In their first two games after the break, Chicago has also played to a total of at least seven goals in each game. It’s been five straight overs for the Hawks and facing the Canucks has also developed into quite a rivalry. As a result, the match-ups between these teams have been quite intense. As the playoff series went on last spring the games developed an even higher “pace” and the last two games each went over the total. In their most recent meeting this season the Canucks exploded for five goals.
Both offenses come into this game riding hot streaks while, for the Blackhawks, goaltending has been an issue all season. For Vancouver, Roberto Luongo has not been as sharp as usual since his role in the Olympics for Canada. The Blackhawks are on an 18-8 run to the over. The Canucks are 8-4 to the over this season when their three prior games have been on the road. When Vancouver is on a high-scoring run it normally stays that way. Over the last three seasons, when the Canucks have gone over the total in three or more consecutive games, they’ve gone 18-12 to the over. This one sets up well for another electric atmosphere in Chicago and we look for the Hawks to respond to the 5-1 beating they took at the hands of Vancouver in their last meeting. However, we also look for the Canucks to continue their high-scoring ways and that spells O-V-E-R! Play OVER the total in Chicago as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Friday KENT STATE
Both these teams enter this game on strong runs. Akron has the home court edge though and that is why they are favored by three points. As long-time followers know, we love to look for spots like this and take the better team when on the road because we get the line value that is inherently given out to the home team. Kent is a veteran group and they will not be intimidated at all by playing this game on an enemy court. Conversely, Akron relies much more on their youth and, even at home, that can lead to some key lapses. Earlier this season, even though the game was on the road, it still says a lot that the Zips were the victims of a 19-0 run by the Golden Flashes. Kent State simply put on a clinic and we do feel that their superior athleticism and their motivation will combine to be too much for Akron. Keep in mind, Kent State has been known to bring a less than stellar effort when facing subpar competition. At the same time, they also have the talent and experience to bring a fierce “A game” when they are motivated. That is certainly the case tonight as these two teams battle it for the MAC regular season crown.
The Zips have never beaten a top 25 team and, while Kent is not ranked right now, the point is that Akron struggles with top competition. Athletic teams with more talent give the Zips a lot of match-up problems. Keep in mind, Akron lost to Texas A & M, NC State, and Virginia Commonwealth already this season. The Zips, just like in their first meeting with Kent State, will struggle with the athletic talents of the Golden Flashes. Players like Justin Greene, Tyree Evans, Anthony Simpson, and Chris Singletary give the Zips a lot of match-up problems in terms of dealing with Kent State’s superior athleticism. When a team can go on a 19-0 run against another team, no matter the venue and no matter the time of the season, that says a lot about the talent disparity. The Golden Flashes will absolutely bring their “A game” here as they have the MAC Title in their sites and that insures a focused effort. While Akron is certainly fired up as well and can also practically “taste” the MAC title, the Zips just don’t have the experience level of the Golden Flashes. Kent State has six seniors in its playing rotation and only lost two road games in conference action all season. One of those road defeats came in overtime against Miami of Ohio.
Two seasons ago, these teams also met in a season finale at Rhodes in Akron and the Golden Flashes came through with a clutch performance for the win. They absolutely have the confidence that they can do it again here! The Golden Flashes are known for finishing seasons strong and that includes knocking off strong defensive teams. Note that Kent State is 14-5 ATS the last three seasons when, after the 15 game mark of the season, they are facing a team that is strong defensively (allowing 64 points or less per game). That record includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Also, the Golden Flashes long-term run as a road dog of 3 points or less all the way down to a pick’em is 12-6 ATS. Both teams are off of a win against a conference foe but Kent State is 6-4 ATS when off of a MAC win this season while Akron is 4-7 ATS when off of a MAC win. It is evident that the Golden Flashes are better able to be consistent in terms of strong back to back performances. Also, as a home favorite of three points or less all the way down to a pick’em, Akron is 0-3 ATS the last three seasons. Play Kent State plus the points as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* OVER in Hofstra
Joe Dukes appears to be healthy again for the Panthers and that is keying this selection. He’s a big scorer but Georgia State has allowed at least 72 points in each of their last four conference games. Now it’s time for the Colonial Athletic Association tournament and the Panthers are facing a red-hot Hofstra offense. The Pride have scored at least 73 points in six straight games. Hofstra has scored at least 68 points in 9 of their last 10 games. Simply put, this total is set way too low when you consider the way these teams match-up as well as the frenetic pace that each has been playing at. The teams just met on Saturday and they combined for 161 points. Georgia State only shot 38.5% from the field in that game, plus made a ridiculous 18 of 35 free throws, and yet they still scored 74 points in the game. It was no fluke either as each team was able to score consistently throughout the game. The Panthers had 36 points in the first half and 38 points in the second half. The Pride had 43 points in the first half and 44 points in the second half.
This total is being kept lower than it should be because Georgia State has some solid long-term numbers for the under. However, keep in mind, the current data shows that the Panthers have gone over the total in each of their last four conference games and they’ve been lit up from the perimeter as CAA teams have killed the Panthers from the three point arc in recent games. Additionally, Georgia State is facing a Hofstra team that loves to play up-tempo. The Pride have gone over the total in 12 of their last 13 games. That means we’ve got ATS streaks of 12-1 (Pride) and 4-0 (Panthers) that are both favoring the over here. That’s a combined 16-1 ATS trending that shows that, barring a total turnaround here, is very likely to continue with the low total posted on this game. This total opened up at a 133.5 and has moved down to as low as a 131 which is offering us even more line value with the over in this one. Charles Jenkins of Hofstra has been red hot and we foresee this working into a Jenkins/Dukes offensive show with plenty of complementary parts as well. Those two scorers are unlikely to be stopped and, in addition, Dukes gets support from Georgia State’s Trae Goldston, Trey Hampton, and Xavier Hansbro. Also, Jenkins gets plenty of support as well from Hofstra’s Chaz Williams, Halil Kanacevic, Cornelius Vines, and Nathaniel Lester. All four of these players are capable of scoring in double digits on any given night and the big key here is that both teams are loaded with players who are currently “feeling it”. You’re talking about two offenses led by top-notch scorers and two teams that have been on a huge run to the over. We’re going to take advantage of this opportunity in the CAA Tournament to ride out this run one more time! Play OVER the total in Hofstra as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Top Play OKLAHOMA CITY
On Wednesday we went against Oklahoma City with Denver and the Nuggets rolled to a 29 point win and handed the Thunder their ugliest loss of the season. That was a tough back to back spot for Oklahoma City however and they were facing a Denver team that was fired up after back to back tough losses. As expected, the Nuggets took out their frustration on the Thunder and we cashed in our ticket. In this case, on Friday, the tables have turned in favor of Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this game with rest – a much needed off day Thursday – and they are the ones coming into the game with extra fire. First off, as for the 29 point loss in the Mile High City Wednesday, note that Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when they lost their prior game by a double digit margin. However, also note that the Thunder are 19-11 this season when playing with revenge. The Thunder lost to the Clippers in Oklahoma City on November 15th. Also, the Thunder are 19-11 ATS in all road games this season. In games played on Fridays, Oklahoma City is 9-2 ATS this season.
We like the fact that Russell Westbrook played much better in the second match-up between these teams this season than he did in the first one. Also, his counterpart, Baron Davis of the Clippers has been struggling. We also like how strongly Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka has come on in recent games. He’s nailed a double-double in two of his last three games and is playing much more of a role for the Thunder than he did way back in November when Oklahoma City last met the Clippers. Note that Los Angeles got embarrassed at home by Phoenix on Wednesday as the Suns won 127-101. Unlike the Thunder though, just because the Clippers got ripped in their prior game, it does not mean they will bounce back here. The Clips are an ugly 6-13 ATS when they allowed 105 points or more in their prior game. As a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, Los Angeles is only 2-5 ATS this season. Also, the Clippers are just 3-7 ATS on Friday nights this season and they are an ugly 19-31 ATS against Northwest Division opponents over the last three seasons. The Clippers also have a tendency to get ripped by good teams. LA is 41-70 ATS the last three seasons when they are facing a team with a winning record. Knowing how fired up the Thunder are here and knowing the line value we’re getting here with such a short number for OKC to cover on the road, we’re raising this play to our highest level. Play Oklahoma City minus the short number as a *10* Top Play selection.
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