Jimmy Boyd
3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Kings/Thunder UNDER 203
We've seen each of the last three meetings between these two teams coming in under the number with scores of 197, 191 and 199, and I'm expecting this one to stay under 200 as well. OKC is coming off a blowout win over Toronto, and it has Denver up next, but I don't believe the Thunder will get caught looking ahead here because they will be looking to avenge a loss to Sacramento. That means we can expect to see Oklahoma City's rock solid defense that is only allowing 95.2 ppg at home. The Kings have really struggled to score on the road, tallying scores of just 98, 89 and 88 in their last 3 road games. In fact, the Kings have been held to 98 or fewer points in 6 of their last 7 games and the Under is 5-2 in those games as a result. Sac is 9-1 Under on Tuesday nights this season and 12-3 Under in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the Thunder's last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Under.
3* SEC SMASH on Florida -3
I'll take the unranked home favorite in this one as I believe odds makers are tipping their hand. Vandy has lost 8 straight at Florida and I don't see this streak coming to an end tonight. The Gators know they still have some work to do to leave absolutely no doubt in the minds of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, especially after a bad loss to Georgia. History is on our side tonight as well when you consider that plays on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, are 60-27 ATS since 1997 and 31-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Gators are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also worth noting that Vandy is 0-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. This is significant because Vandy is a pretty good free throw shooting team and Florida won't give them as many opportunities from the line. Take Florida.
5* 2010 Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +9.5
A win ensures Ohio State the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney and at least a share of the regular season conference championship so the Buckeyes shouldn't be lacking motivation. However, Illinois will be extremely motivated as well, and with that in mind, odds makers are spotting the Illini too many points. The Illini can earn a first round bye in the Big Ten tourney with a win tonight. But their biggest motivation is that a win will likely ensure them a place in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have dropped 3 of 4, including a 19-point embarrassing loss to the Buckeyes, to find themselves on the bubble. Illinois already has wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. It is a much better team than it has showed recently, and I expect the Illini to give the Buckeyes all they want and more tonight. Illinois has shot very poorly in the games it has lost recently and is coming off a dismal 31.9% shooting effort. But that actually bodes well for us here as Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 0-7 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Take Illinois and the points.
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