SPORTS ADVISORS
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Tulsa (19-8, 7-16-1 ATS) at (5) Duke (23-4, 16-8-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils look to pad their stats with a late-season, non-conference contest against Tulsa at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Since falling at Georgetown on Jan. 30, Duke has reeled off six consecutive wins (3-1-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 67-55 defeat of Virginia Tech, pushing as a 12-point home chalk. The Blue Devils rank 12th nationally in scoring, averaging 80.0 ppg, while allowing 62.5, and they are even better at Cameron, racking up 87.3 ppg and yielding just 60.7.
Tulsa, out of Conference USA, has lost three in a row and four of its last five, and it has come up a loser at the betting window nine straight times, including Saturday’s 78-70 setback to Texas-El Paso as a 1½-point home favorite. Over the last five games, the Golden Hurricane have been outscored by just over five points per contest (72.0-66.6) while shooting 42.8 percent from the floor (25.7 percent from 3-point range).
These teams haven’t met since the 1999 NCAA Tournament, when Duke plowed to a 97-56 second-round victory as a whopping 24½-point favorite.
The Blue Devils are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games and a modest 2-0-2 ATS in their last four starts overall. Tulsa is on negative ATS streaks of 5-15-1 overall (0-9 last nine), 0-4 on the road, 0-7-1 against winning teams, 0-8 after a non-cover, 0-4 after a SU loss and 4-9-1 on Thursday.
The under for Duke is on runs of 5-1 overall and 5-2 at home, and the total for Tulsa has stayed low in seven of 10 overall and six straight on the road. However, Duke is on “over” upticks of 5-1 on Thursday and 6-2 in non-conference play, and the over has hit in five of Tulsa’s last seven outside Conference USA.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
South Carolina (14-12, 9-14 ATS) at (2) Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS)
The red-hot Wildcats aim to avenge their only loss of the season when they play host to South Carolina in an SEC clash at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky stumbled to the Gamecocks 68-62 as a seven-point road chalk on Jan. 26, but has since won seven in a row (5-2 ATS), squeaking past Vanderbilt 58-56 Saturday as a one-point road favorite. For the season, the Wildcats are outscoring opponents by an average of about 15 ppg (80.4-65.3). On the home floor, where John Calipari’s club is 17-0, that jumps to about 18 ppg, as Kentucky averages 84.0 on 49.6 percent shooting and gives up 65.8 on 38.2 percent shooting.
South Carolina has dumped three in a row SU and ATS, all in the SEC and all as an underdog, including Saturday’s 63-55 home setback to Tennessee as a 1½-point home pup. The Gamecocks are 1-8 in true road games, putting up just 65 ppg (38.8 percent shooting) and allowing 73 ppg (45.4 percent). Since opening SEC play with an eight-point road win at Auburn (as a one-point underdog), South Carolina has dropped five straight conference road games (1-4 ATS), losing by nine points or more three times.
South Carolina has won and covered three in a row in this rivalry, taking the last two on its home floor, including the six-point win at home a month ago. The Gamecocks also scored a stunning 78-77 win at Rupp Arena last year catching 9½ points last season. The SU winner in this rivalry is on an 8-1 ATS run (5-0 last five), the ‘dog is on a 9-2 ATS roll, the road team has covered in 12 of the last 17 contests and the Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Lexington.
The Wildcats are in a 2-5 ATS rut following a spread-cover, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall – all coming off a SU win and all in the SEC. The Gamecocks have cashed in eight of their last 10 Thursday outings, but they are otherwise on pointspread purges of 1-5 overall (all in the SEC), 2-9 on the highway, 2-6 after a non-cover and 4-9 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Kentucky is on “over” surges of 10-3 against winning teams, 6-2-1 on Thursday and 8-3 at Rupp Arena, and the over is 12-3 in South Carolina’s last 15 against winning teams. In addition, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 16 meetings overall and seven of the last eight in Kentucky.
That said, the Gamecocks are on “under” tears of 18-7-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 on Thursday, 9-3 after a SU loss and 10-4-1 in the SEC, and their last two meetings with the Wildcats (both at home) stayed under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and OVER
NBA
Cleveland (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) at Boston (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS)
Having snapped their three-game losing streak at home on Tuesday, the Cavaliers now make the trek to TD Garden for a matchup against a Celtics’ squad that has won four of five since the All-Star break.
Cleveland got back in the win column on Tuesday with a 105-95 victory over the Hornets, but the Cavs came up short as 11½-point favorites, failing to cash for the fourth straight time and the sixth time in the last seven games. The 1-6 ATS slump comes on the heels of a six-game spread-covering surge. LeBron James had 20 points and 13 assists against New Orleans on Tuesday with Shaquille O’Neal adding 20 points and seven rebounds.
Boston got double-digit scoring from all five starters and beat the Knicks on Tuesday 110-106, coming up well short as a 9½-point home favorite. The Celtics are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall, including back-to-back non-covers in their last two. Ray Allen led the charge against New York with 24 points with Rajon Rondo adding 15 points and 16 assists.
In the season-opener this season, Boston went to Cleveland and scored a 95-89 victory as a five-point ‘dog. That snapped a nine-game winning streak by the home team in this series that had seen the Cavaliers cash in eight of the nine. Cleveland is still 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 series clashes, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight played in Beantown.
The Cavaliers are on ATS slides of 0-4 overall, 1-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 against Atlantic Division teams, but they are on positive pointspread surges of 4-1-1 on Thursday and 7-3 after getting one day off. Boston is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 on Thursday, but from their the pointspread trends turn negative, including 16-34-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 1-5 against Central Division teams, 1-7-1 after getting a day off and 0-6-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Cleveland is on several “over” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 8-3-1 on Thursday, 4-1-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-0-1 after a straight-up win. On the opposite side, the Celtics are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 20-8 on Thursday, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Lastly, three of the last four meetings in Boston have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
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