Craig Davis
30 Dime – FLORIDA
FLORIDA --- Love the fact we're getting an unranked Florida team, at home, giving a small number to ranked Tennessee. The general public eats these lines up as they think the rankings actually mean something... and it's "crazy" for a ranked team to be getting points from an unranked team... even if the game is on the road. Well folks, I'm telling you right now the Tennessee Volunteers are going to have their hands full with an angry bunch of Gators and their fans in Gainesville tonight.
The Vols are a very respectable 13-1 at home, but just 7-5 on the highway and only 4-4 in true road games (3-1 in neutral site games). And if you remember correctly, they needed all 40 minutes to hang on for a 61-60 home win vs. these same Gators as nine-point chalk. The biggest difference in that game was behind the arc where the Vols hit 7 of 23 while Florida nailed only 4 of 16... game, set, match. For the season, the Gators shoot 31% from downtown while the Vols shoot just 32%, so clearly Florida was below their seasonal average while Tennessee did a bit better than they were supposed to. The number that stands out to me, however, is the fact the Vols shoot just 23% from three-point land on the road, and they aren't going to be helped by the fact the Gators allow just 28% from there at home.
Another stat that clearly favors the Gators tonight is from the stripe. Tennessee is absolutely HORRIBLE from the free throw line, hitting just 66% overall and 65% on the road. In a tight game, which I expect it to be for a while tonight, the Vols might fall behind because of their lack of ability to get the free ones.
Neither team has been much of a money-maker this year at the betting window, but the Vols have been atrocious lately, failing to cover 7 of their last 9 overall and just one of their last five on the road vs. teams with a winning record. The Gators, on the other hand, are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. teams from the SEC. Gators win and cover... winning by at least 6 tonight.
15 Dime – Suns-Thunder OVER
Yes, I realize the last eight Suns games have gone under the total. Yes, I realize Steve Nash is out. That's why I like the OVER so much tonight. Every trend has a "counter trend", and like I've told you before, when something seems to good to be true, it often times is. That's why if I played the game I'd probably take the Suns plus the points. Initially, the general public automatically thinks "over" when the Suns are involved, so Vegas has been setting their totals so high that the last eight have gone under... some quite easily. But tonight I actually think the Suns might score more points without Nash in the lineup than with him there. They'll get out in transition more, running up and down the floor looking for fast break opportunities. Let's be honest... Nash isn't scoring a ton of points lately... he's dishing out assists and getting his teammates involved more. Tonight they won't have that luxury and will likely try to create more on their own. This might get them to the free throw line a bit more, slowing the game down and giving us cheap points while the clock is stopped.
As for OKC, let's not sell them short either. They can easily run with anyone in the league because they are so young, and they don't mind dictating the up-tempo game to Phoenix, basically telling the Suns, "try and keep up". So it shouldn't surprise you that this total opened at 201 and is already at 204 in some places (at the time of this writing). The Thunder has gone over the century mark in seven of their last nine games and average 100 PPG at home. But considering Phoenix allows 109 PPG on the road, I think it's safe to say the Thunder are going for triple digits tonight. The bigger question is... can Phoenix, without Nash, generate enough offense to score over 100 points themselves? Absolutely. Jason Richardson, Amare Stoudemire and Grant Hill are all capable of posting 15 or more points, and let's not rule out Robin Lopez going for a double-double. The wild card will be Goran Dragic, who is expected to handle some of the point guard duties in Nash's absence. For those who haven't seen him play... he's legit. He can score from anywhere on the floor and isn't afraid to get his hands dirty in the paint. This one goes over by more than a few buckets tonight.
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