Hey guys let's get back to posting in the other areas as well. Thanks.

Bryan Leonard

Memphis at Toronto

We're somewhat surprised by the spread in this one as this game is being lined as if Toronto is the clearly superior team. Sure the teams were heading in opposite directions before the break, but the reasons are somewhat obvious. Toronto played a far easier schedule than Memphis. The Grizzlies have dropped 7 of their last 8 games but they have played the likes of Phoenix, Atlanta, Cleveland, the Lakers and San Antonio. Toronto on the other hand has played seven straight games against Miami, New York, Indiana twice, New Jersey, Sacramento and Philadelphia. Toronto has a three game better record than the Grizzlies but they play in the weaker of the two conferences. There aren't many givens out west and Memphis is a much improved team from earlier in the season.

Memphis played last night at home against Phoenix while the Raptors continued their All-Star vacation. We're not so sure that that's an advantage for the host. Teams on sizable winning streaks don't want the mid-season break to come as it's sure to interrupt their momentum. For a team like Toronto who hasn't played since a week ago we can't expect their play to remain at a high level. This is just too many points to be laying in this situation as we back the equal of these two squads catching an additional 2 to 3 points.

PLAY MEMPHIS

DOC SPORTS NBA

1-Unit Play #703 Take Minnesota/Washington OVER 206 ½
3-Unit Play #707 Take Detroit +11 Over Orlando
2-Unit Play #710 Take New York -2 Over Chicago

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers

San Antonio is either a washed-up group of has-beens or a sleeping giant in the West depending on who you ask. The Spurs disappointed their backers for most of the season and were unable to find any type of rhythm.

Small forward Richard Jefferson hasn’t fit in well and Manu Ginobili doesn’t have the same type of explosiveness he displayed during the Spurs’ championship years. But some are suggesting that San Antonio’s last game before the break, a 19-point win at Denver, could be the beginning of a surge from coach Gregg Popovich’s club.

“It was big,” reserve guard Roger Mason Jr. told the Associated Press after defeating the Nuggets. “We’ve been struggling with our consistency. It lets us know how good we can be.”

The All-Star break should do wonders for a well-aged squad like the Spurs. Look for them, with or without starting point guard Tony Parker, to embarrass the Pacers.

Pick: Spurs


Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors (-7, 215)

Two teams enter this game looking for different things in the second half. The Grizz hope to squash a recent seven-game skid where they went 1-6 straight up and against the spread.

The Raptors, on the other hand, look to extend their three-game win streak. Toronto was playing its best basketball of the season before the break, winning eight of nine and covering in six of those contests.

But don’t let the recent numbers fool you. Memphis is a much better team than Toronto. The Grizz face difficult opposition almost every night while the Raps have the benefit of playing teams like New Jersey, New York and Indiana more often.

Toronto always plays better at home but the layoff should have this team thinking too highly of itself.

Pick: Grizzlies

SPORTS ADVISORS

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 17

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(4) Purdue (21-3, 11-12-1 ATS) at (9) Ohio State (20-6, 13-13 ATS)
Two surging teams, both in contention for the Big Ten regular-season title, square off when the Buckeyes host Purdue at Value City Arena.
Ohio State has won six in a row (3-3 ATS) since falling at Big East power West Virginia on Jan. 23. The Buckeyes are coming off a pair of road routs, dumping Indiana 69-52 last Wednesday as a 10½-point favorite, then cooling off Illinois 72-53 Saturday as a two-point chalk. In fact, OSU has won its last five games by double digits, averaging 73.8 ppg on sterling 51.9 percent shooting, while allowing just 57.6 ppg on 41.9 percent shooting.
Purdue’s three losses came back-to-back-to-back from Jan. 9-16, but it has since notched seven consecutive wins (4-3 ATS), including a 63-40 defensive gem against Iowa on Saturday, cashing as a huge 19½-point home favorite. The Boilermakers held the Hawkeyes to just 29.8 percent shooting (14 of 47). Over the past five games, Purdue has outscored opponents by 12.4 ppg (68.6.-56.4), shooting 48.2 percent from the field and allowing just 36 percent shooting.
Ohio State dealt Purdue the second of its three losses, rallying for a 70-65 victory as a nine-point road pup in West Lafayette on Jan. 12 to cash for the third time in the last four series meetings. The Buckeyes have owned this rivalry lately, going 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 clashes, including 6-2-1 ATS in Columbus. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS surges of 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record. Conversely, the Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 4-12-1 following a spread-cover, 2-5 against winning teams and 16-36-2 in Wednesday outings.
The over is 8-3 in Ohio State’s last 11 games following an spread-cover and 6-0 at home against teams with a winning road record, and Purdue is on “over” runs of 5-0 on the highway and 21-6 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark. However, the under is 13-6 in Ohio State’s last 19 Big Ten starts and 5-2 in the Boilermakers’ last seven on Wednesday.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE


(6) Duke (21-4, 16-8 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (17-8, 9-7-1 ATS)
The Blue Devils, in pursuit of their fifth consecutive win, head to South Beach for an ACC contest with Miami at the BankUnited Center.
Duke has won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), with all the victories coming in conference play, including Saturday’s 77-56 wipeout of Maryland as a 9½-point home chalk. Five of those six wins have come by double digits, and for the season, the Blue Devils are averaging 80.5 ppg (12th in the nation) while allowing 62.3 ppg. They also have one of the stingiest perimeter defenses, allowing opponents to make just 27.8 percent of their shots from beyond the three-point arc (fourth).
After a torrid 15-1 start, the Hurricanes have gone 2-7 SU in its last nine games (3-5-1 ATS). On Saturday, Miami went to Clemson and lost 74-66 but got the cash as a 9½-point pup. On the year, the ‘Canes have averaged 71.6 ppg, but it has scored 66 or less in its last four games and seven of its last nine. That said, six of those seven were on the road; at home, the Hurricanes average 75 ppg while allowing just 60.0.
The home team has won the last three meetings in this rivalry, with Miami going 2-0-1 ATS. Last February, Duke eked out a 78-75 overtime win, but the Hurricanes covered as a hefty 14-point underdog, and two years ago in Miami, the ‘Canes won a 96-95 shootout catching 6½ points. Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, all as a ‘dog, and the road team is also on a 3-1-1 ATS run.
The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 in the ACC, 4-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 against winning teams. The Hurricanes are on a modest 3-1-1 ATS run overall (all in the ACC and all against winning teams), but they are also on a 1-5-1 ATS skid following a pointspread win.
Both Duke and Miami have topped the total in six straight games against winning teams. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-4 on Wednesday, 25-9 in conference play and 24-10 after a spread-cover. The under is also 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 home games and 5-0 in its last five after an ATS victory. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last six clashes overall.


ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and OVER


(15) Texas (20-5, 9-12 ATS) at Missouri (18-7, 11-8 ATS)
Texas, aiming to regain some consistency, makes the trek to Columbia for a Big 12 battle with the Tigers at Mizzou Arena.
Since starting the season 17-0 and ascending to No. 1 in the country, the Longhorns have lost five of their last eight games and gone just 2-6 ATS in that stretch. On Saturday, though, they blasted Nebraska 91-51 as a 14-point home favorite to end a 1-3 SU and ATS skid. Rick Barnes’ troops are narrowly outscoring road opponents, averaging 77.4 ppg and giving up 75.1.
Missouri put together a nine-game winning streak to firm up its record by mid-January, but has since gone a middling 4-4 SU and ATS, all in Big 12 play. On Saturday at Baylor, the Tigers fell just short 64-62, but covered as a four-point pup. Mizzou is 15-1 at home this year, averaging a whopping 85.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while allowing just 61.7 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting.
Missouri has gone 2-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons against Texas, winning 69-65 last year as a 4½-point road ‘dog and 97-84 two years ago as a one-point home pup. Those two wins followed an 8-0 SU and ATS tear by the Longhorns, who are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes overall and 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Columbia. The chalk has covered in five of the last seven in this rivalry.
The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts following a spread-cover, but their pointspread streaks spiral downward from there, including 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the road, 0-7 after a SU win, 1-5 on Wednesday, 2-9 against winning teams and 6-19-1 in the Big 12. On the flip side, the Tigers are on ATS surges of 22-8 at home, 16-7 in the Big 12 and 4-0 after a SU loss, though they are in an 0-4 ATS funk following a spread-cover.
Texas is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 5-2 overall, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 6-2 on the highway, but the under for the ‘Horns is on a 5-1-1 stretch against winning teams. The under for Mizzou is on upticks 5-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 9-4 in Big 12 competition, but the Tigers sport “over” streaks of 4-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI


NBA

Utah (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) at New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS)
The Hornets return to the court for the first time in a week when they entertain the red-hot Jazz in a Western Conference battle at New Orleans Arena.
Utah kicked off a four-game Western Conference road trip with Tuesday’s 104-95 win at Houston as a three-point road favorite. The Jazz are 15-3 in their last 18 games, going 13-2-3 ATS, and during this stretch they’re 5-2 on the road (6-0-1 ATS). Utah’s offense has been humming, as it has scored more than 100 points in 14 of its last 16 games, tallying 109 or more nine times.
New Orleans went into the All-Star break on a high note, rallying for a 93-85 win over the Celtics as a five-point home underdog, the team’s third straight spread cover. However, the Hornets – who continue to play without injured All-Star point guard Chris Paul, are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games, including 1-4 SU and ATS at home.
New Orleans ended a four-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Jazz with a 91-87 upset win as a 7½-point road favorite back on Jan. 4 in Salt Lake City (the only previous battle this season). Utah is still 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including consecutive wins and covers in its last two trips to the Big Easy.
Utah is on a slew of positive pointspread surges, including 13-2-3 overall, 7-0-1 on the highway, 10-2-2 as a favorite, 20-6-1 as a chalk of less than five points, 6-1 as a road chalk of five points or less, 10-2-2 against Western Conference foes, 37-17 against the Southwest Division, 16-5-3 versus winning teams, 4-1 on Wednesday and 4-1-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
New Orleans has cashed in five of its last seven on Wednesday and 16 of its last 21 versus winning teams, but it is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 5-13 against Northwest Division squads and 0-5 when coming off three or more days of rest.
The Jazz are on “over” surges of 5-1 on the road, 4-1-1 as a road favorite, 8-4 against the Western Conference, 5-1 on Wednesday and 5-2 when playing on consecutive days. Similarly, New Orleans carries “over” streaks of 9-2 overall, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 on Wednesday and 6-1-1 after three or more days off. However, the Hornets have also stayed low in 27 of their last 40 home games and 10 of 13 against Northwest Division opponents.
Finally, the under is on a 6-2-1 roll in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH


Phoenix (32-22, 29-25 ATS) at Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS)
The Mavericks, who have covered just one pointspread at home since Nov. 18, welcome the streaking Suns to American Airlines Center as these conference rivals clash for the third and final time this season.
Phoenix returned from the All-Star break on Tuesday and scored a 109-95 victory at Memphis in a pick-em contest. The Suns are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games, during which they’ve won and covered five straight road games. Phoenix’s current runs follows a 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS slump (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS on the road).
Dallas also resumed play on Tuesday, ending a three-game road trip with a 99-86 loss at Oklahoma City as a 4½-point road underdog. The Mavericks have lost six of their last eight games, and they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last nine contests and 20 of their last 27. During its 2-6 overall funk, Dallas is 2-2 at home (0-4 ATS).
The Suns ended a three-game losing streak to the Mavs with a 112-106 home win as a two-point favorite back on Jan. 28. Phoenix also got the money in a 102-101 loss in Dallas as a 4½-point underdog on Dec. 8, the first meeting of the season between these squads.
Phoenix is on ATS upticks of 6-1 overall (all against the Western Conference), 5-0 on the highway, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 versus the Southwest Division and 7-3 as an underdog of less than five points, but the Suns have come up short in seven of their last 10 when playing on no rest.
Although the Mavs have won 15 of their 23 home games, they’re just 5-19 ATS, including 10 straight non-covers. Going back further, they’ve cashed just once in their last 18 games at American Airlines Center, going 0-17 ATS as a home favorite. Additionally, Dallas is in pointspread freefalls of 7-20 overall (1-8 last nine), 7-20 against Western Conference teams, 1-4 versus the Pacific Division, 0-5 against winning teams and 2-6 when playing on back-to-back nights.
The under is on runs of 5-0 for Phoenix overall and 4-0 for the Mavs on Wednesday. From there, however, the Suns are on “over” streaks of 6-2 against the Southwest Division, 5-2 versus winning teams, 28-12 on Wednesday, 13-6 when going on back-to-back days and 5-1 as an underdog of less than five points. Also, Dallas is on “over” surges of 7-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-4 against the Western Conference, 5-2 versus winning teams, 5-1 as a favorite and 7-3 when playing on no rest.
Lastly, five of the last six Suns-Mavericks clashes have hurdled the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (RAS)

Rotation: 798
> Cal State Fullerton (-2)
> Rating: 1.00
> Game Time: 07:00pm PST
> Released at: 7:30:00am PST

Rotation: 799
> Pacific (+1)
> Rating: 1.00
> Game Time: 07:00pm PST
> Released at: 7:32:30am PST

Insider Sports Report

4* Southern Miss
4* Ball State
3* Northwestern

Billy Coleman

NBA
4* ATL-LAC < 196.0
3* HOUST ROCKETS 5.0

NCAA
4* # 792 ARK 3.5 - 9PM EST
3* # 734 MIAMI 7.5 - 7PM EST
3* # 739 TEMPLE 6.5 - 7PM EST

FREE PICK - NBA - DALLAS 4.5

Vegas Runner`s Morning Moves - Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Report Status: WEDNESDAY FEB 17th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on THUR 2-18-10
Notes:

“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for WEDNESDAY FEB 17th, 2010

HANDICAPPING THEORY : “VALUE”…WHAT IS IT EXACTLY ??


Good Morning Lovely Ladies & Gentlemen…First, I wanted to say that by no means am I trying to be a wise-ass…In fact, I want to take a moment to personally apologize for always speaking, writing, ect towards a “male audience”…Especially when I am now certain that we have women who are also partners in this venture of trying to beat the sports betting market…I think it was ignorant of myself to not already expect that I had some Lady clients…

So ladies…you have my deepest apology…And you have no clue just how thrilled I am to know that there are women out there who love this racket as much as I do…See that fellas, there is hope for us…We just may be able to not just land a woman who loves sports…but hit the lottery by landing one who loves to wager as well…

Finally, I want to really thank the lovely and definitely classy lady in England who not only brought this to my attention…but also sent me a very nice e-mail, showing her appreciation for all the hard work I do…Reading that made me realize even more, why I do this Daily Newsletters…Weekly Video Pod-Casts…Daily Messages & Forum Threads…Live-Chats…ect…Because besides simply passing along winning information, I see that my clients/partners also appreciate everything else…

Sorry I haven’t gotten into handicapping Manchester United…lol…But make sure you let me know if you are ever planning to make it out here to Vegas…I will personally, show you around the sports books here in town…Thanks Again, VR



Allright…I got that out of the way, now we can move on to today’s business at hand…For starters, we WON another “Morning Move” on Wednesday…And are now “11-4” (73% ATS) Overall…I really hope that you are also taking the time to not only read the Daily Newsletters, but also put some of the concepts & theories to work for you…This way, all of YOUR hard work and good decisions…is never wiped out by a handful of bad decisions…

For today’s Newsletter…I wanted to take a moment to define “VALUE”…Because in the sports handicapping/betting world…as well as the gambling & business world, we are always hearing the word “Value”…

The dictionary defines Value as : “An amount expressed in money or another medium of exchange that is thought to be a FAIR exchange for something”…That’s a pretty good definition of what Value is…But I want to discuss what it means in the sports betting market…And to us as bettors…

The bottom line is this…To make money betting on sports, you simply have to find positions that you can get your money down…and know that you are getting the best of it…Which ultimately means, finding where the Value lies, and betting it…Now this may seem like a simple concept, but none are deeper or more important…Because it’s your ability to truly determine Value…that will allow you to profit, or have you go broke…

I never really understood this concept until I went on to move “steam” for a handful of the Betting Syndicates…Because when you work for them, you really start to see what Value actually means…Because these guys are ONLY going to take a position on a game, if they are able to get the EXACT number they perceive offers them value…Meaning, when they send out a “buy-order” on TEAM A - 2...then -2 is the ONLY line that we can bet it at, because they won’t accept anything else…Unless of course we can find better…

What really made me understand that the Wiseguys look at this just like any other market is the fact that they would actually change the side they were going to bet, if the bookmakers moved the line to much…Meaning, although they liked TEAM A -2...if the line went to 3.5...many times, they would do a complete turn around, and take a position on TEAM B +3.5...Because according to their numbers, there is now Value on TEAM B…

The bottom line is that even in our market…Value simply means that the bookmakers are offering a price that is not a true reflection of the worth, for one team or the other…in that particular match-up…So if you think that the “TRUE LINE” (covered in previous Newsletter) of a match-up should be TEAM A -3 vs. TEAM B…But the bookmakers are offering the game at TEAM A -6...then according to your numbers, TEAM B is offering you enough value…that you should be willing to take that position…

The key is being efficient at determining value…And it’s no different than what successful stock brokers are able to do, compared to those who aren’t…The successful ones are able to accurately determine the TRUE worth of a company…and based on what price that company’s stock is selling at…they either have Value, or they don’t…It’s really not any more difficult than that…

But what happens, is that we invest in a market that is difficult to not be biased…We love sports and we have our favorite teams…So many times, we find ourselves taking a position that actually offers us NO value at all…And when you do that, in a market that asks you to lay 11 to win only 10...you are taking the worst of it, and will ultimately lose your bankroll…

This is why on a past Newsletter I discussed how important it was to actually create your own “Price” (line) before you even consider looking at what the market has set the price at…And because the bookmakers are forced to offer a betting line whose only function is to try and SPLIT the money being wagered…more times than not, you will find some opportunities to get your money down, where you know you are getting Value…

But unless you have a price to compare to what the market is offering, you can never be sure if you are actually getting any value at all…And regardless of how efficient of a handicapper you may be…in the end, you need to be able to accurately determine value…

So always make sure that if you are placing a bet…the main reason, and actually the only reason that you are placing it…is because according to your work, the price being offered, isn’t a true reflection of what you perceive it should be…Meaning the question that you need to answer is…, Are you are getting more than you should be getting (Betting the Dog)…or are you being asked to give up less than you should be giving up (Betting the Favorite)…

Finally, if you can answer that every time…while improving at answering it accurately, then you are on your way to being able to beat the books…And if you can do those things, then with proper money management…you should ALWAYS be able to turn a profit in the long-run…

So make sure you are making a wager because you believe you are getting Value…Or else, you are simply gambling…And I’ve told you many times what happens eventually when you gamble…Instead, find that position that offers Value, and get your money down on it…

Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner


LINE-PREDICTION :

1.) GM 719/720.…OVER 223 KINGS/WARRIORS

This is one of those match-ups that the Betting Syndicates will almost always try to get ahead of the market on…And there is NO doubt at all where the market is going, because the betting public is going to be wagering on the OVER in this one…So we should see the books, who have already adjusted to 223, from 222...continue to move in that direction…VR

2.) 753/754.…BALL ST +1

According to a handful of sources that move “steam”…Ball St is on their “buy-list” for today…So we should see some of the Outfits step up and grab +1 with Ball St and force an adjustment…And because this match-up should receive very little “public money”…the books won’t be able to get balance…This will force them to possibly over-adjust, in an attempt to entice some money on the other side…VR

Brandon Lang

15 DIME - PHOENIX SUNS
5 DIME - OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
5 DIME - MARYLAND TERRAPINS
FREE PICK - DETROIT PISTONS

ALATEX
20* Mia Oh -1
Mizzou -2.5
UNLV -3.5

JB SPORTS
3* NY Knicks

ATS LOCK CLUB

5* Arkansas.
4* Ill st.
4* kan st.
3* Louisiana Tech

ATS FINANCIAL
4 Northwestern -6.5
3 U Mass +7
3 Charlotte -6

KB HOOPS

5* Missouri -2 *POD*
4* Ohio State -3
4* Maryland -4.5
3* Northwestern -7
3* Kansas State -14
3* Colorado -5

Special k

5* Nets under 187

Jeff Benton

30 Dime: PHOENIX SUNS

This play shouldn’t surprise you in the least, because for the last several weeks, I’ve been going against the Mavericks every time they play at home. And these numbers will tell you why: Dallas is 1-17 ATS in its last 18 home games. That one spread-cover? It came as a 3½-point home UNDERDOG against the Cavaliers. That means the Mavs have failed to cover in 17 straight games as a home favorite! Think about that for a second: A 17-game non-covering streak when laying points at home. That is almost impossible to believe.

You know the last time Dallas covered a pointspread as a home chalk? Nov. 18, and that was a 99-94 overtime victory over San Antonio as a three-point chalk.

Take away the seven-point upset win over the Cavaliers, and the Mavericks have just one home win by more than five points since Nov. 10 (that was a 9-point victory over Golden State as a 12-point favorite on Feb. 3). And it’s not like they’ve been hosting one playoff team after another. Sure, some of the teams that have visited Dallas recently have been the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Blazers, Cavaliers, Thunder, Spurs and Hawks. But there also have been games against such NBA also-rans as Minnesota, Golden State, Milwaukee, Detroit, Memphis, Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte, Philadelphia and Sacramento.

Phoenix is one of the teams that has walked out of Dallas with a spread-cover this year, as the Suns lost 102-101 as a 4½-point underdog back on Dec. 8. Then at the end of last month, these teams met in Phoenix, and the Suns rallied for a 112-106 win as a two-point home favorite.

That Jan. 28 home win over Dallas sparked a five-game SU and ATS winning streak for the Suns, and after last night’s impressive 14-point win in Memphis, they’re now on a 6-1 SU and ATS winning streak, including 5-0 SU and ATS on the road! Phoenix is also 4-1 ATS in its last five against Southwest Division teams and it has cashed in seven of its last 10 as a small underdog (less than five points). Compare that with the Mavericks, who suffered a 13-point loss at Oklahoma City last night, so in addition to their 1-17 ATS slump at home (0-17 ATS as a home favorite), they’re in pointspread slumps of 7-20 overall, 2-6 when playing on back-to-back nights and 0-5 against opponents that have a winning overall record.

Bottom line: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, until Dallas proves it can cover a pointspread as a home favorite, I’m going to keep going against them, regardless of the opponent. And in this case, when it’s a quality opponent like Phoenix, this is as big a no-brainer as it gets. Take the points – but don’t be surprised if the Suns win this thing outright (after all, Dallas is just 3-4 SU in its last seven home games).

Karl Garrett

30 DIMER - VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
10 DIMER - DETROIT TITANS

Time to see how Tony Bennett's Cavaliers respond to a little adversity, as Virginia is on a 3 game losing streak, and they have also dropped 5 of their last 7 overall.

The good news is, the Wahoos are 11-3 straight up at home this year, and I would say they are "due" for a win tonight.

Florida State has made most of their bones at home this season, on the road, the Seminoles are just 2-5 straight up their last 7 "true" road games. State is also on a 2-8 spread slide their last 10 lined games.

Virginia is in "triple revenge", and have lost 6 of the last 7 series meetings overall.

Have to believe tonight is the night UVa steps up and delivers a solid showing to get off both the series schneid, and their overall schneid.

Take the Cavs.

10 DIMER - DETROIT TITANS

Gotta take the points with the Titans even though they come into this game having lost 6 of their last 9. I expect Detroit to compete hard tonight, and keep this game respectable.

Wright State ain't exactly tearing it up against the spread of late, as the Raiders may have won 6 of their last 7 games, BUT are on a dismal 2-7-2 spread run their last 11 games.

The Raiders are on an 8 game series winning streak, but the first meeting this season was a 61-59 nailbiter that I am sure the Titans would like to avenge. The road team is 5-1-3 against the spread the last 9 series meetings, and the Titans are also a solid 8-2 against the spread their last 10 road games overall.

Take the generous impost, as this one stays close for a 2nd time this year.

SCOTT DELANEY

50-Dime NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

It's nice to talk the one-game-at-a-time talk, but right now, the Wildcats need to embrace the season - the remainder of it - for what it's worth; and that would be a berth into the Big Dance.

There's no doubt Northwestern has to make a final push in its final five conference games, winning bare minimum four of them, if not them all. Clearly sitting at 6-7 in Big 10 play, the Wildcats have to win as many games as they can if they plan on receiving an invite to the big ball.

Putting their minds to it, the Wildcats are fully capable, as they were 11-1 in non-conference action. They've got tough chores against Penn State and Indiana remaining, they'll have to visit Madison to take on Wisconsin, and then there's the two gimmes: Penn State and Iowa.

And if there is one coach I am sure has been stressing the importance of winning the "gimmes," it's Bill Carmody. He is well aware the Big Ten's league RPI is just sixth, so a 10-8 conference record may not even be good enough ... even if the Wildcats were to finish 21-9 before playing in the Big 10 tournament.

Northwestern is in after rallying from a 13-point deficit to beat Minnesota in overtime on Sunday, so momentum should be riding high with this team.

But enough about why to play on Northwestern, what about the opponent?

The Nittany Lions are 8-16 on the season, and sport a 1-7 road mark. They've also won two straight over Northwestern, and six of the last seven meetings. They've covered all seven of those games.

Nonetheless, I'm not scared - thus my Revenge Game title.

After all, Penn State has lost 12 in a row - all of them being in Big 10 play. Of the team's eight wins, they include victories over teams like: Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Virginia, Maryland-Baltimore Country, Gardner Webb and American U.

Checking the betting numbers, the Lions are mired in ATS slides of 9-21 when catching points in this range, 1-8 when catching points in this range on the road and 0-4 after losing by double digits at home.

On the flipside, the Wildcats are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 5-0 at home, 4-0 as the home chalk, 4-1 off an ATS cover, 8-2 when catching points in this range, 9-3 oss a straight-up win and 6-1 overall - all in Big 10 play.

Northwestern is going to win this by at least a dozen