dr bob
esday NBA Opinion
GOLDEN STATE (-4 1/2) over Sacramento
Rotation #720 - 7:35 pm Pacific
It's not surprising to me that the Warriors are now 4-0 ATS this season without leading scorer Monta Ellis, as Ellis has been a negative influence on the Warriors throughout his career. This season, Golden State has out-scored their opponents by 81 points in the 453 minutes that Ellis has been on the bench (+8.6 points per 48 minutes) while the Warriors have been out-scored by 6.7 points per 48 minutes with Ellis on the floor. Rookie Stephen Curry is the real star of the team and Curry has thrived in the games Ellis has missed and made the Warriors a better team. The Warriors lost by 3 points at Sacramento 3 weeks ago and covered the spread despite their worst 3-point shooting night of the season (4 for 23), and the Warriors are 35-13-1 ATS in same season revenge games when not laying 5 points or more. My ratings favor Golden State by 6 points in this game and I'll lean with the Warriors at -5 or less. I'd take Golden State as a 2-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -4 points or less.
Wednesday College Opinions
OHIO STATE (-3 1/2) over Purdue
Rotation #724 - 3:30 pm Pacific
Ohio State already beat Purdue in West Lafayette and my ratings favor the Buckeyes by 6 points here in Columbus. Ohio State is 13-7 ATS in games with star Evan Turner playing (0-6 ATS in the 6 games he missed), including 9-3 ATS at home. Ohio State has won all 15 of their home games by 9 points or more and that 9 point win was against a very good Wisconsin team. Purdue hasn't been as good on the road as they've been at home over the years (3-4 ATS on the road this season) and the Boilermakers are just 5-15 ATS under coach Painter in road games against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better if they're not getting at least 9 points. Ohio State's defense is designed to force teams to take outside shots (they allow a mediocre 34.4% 3-pointers), but Purdue is not a good 3-point shooting team (just 31.6%), so this is not a good match-up for the Boilermakers, who made a solid 10 of 27 3-pointers (37%) at home against the Buckeyes and still lost that game. I'll lean with Ohio State at -4 or -3 1/2 and I'll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
Illinois-Chicago (+23) over BUTLER
Rotation #745 - 4 pm Pacific
Butler is just 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 15 points or more under coach Brad Stevens, including 1-5 ATS this season and 1-8 ATS after consecutive victories, and the Bulldogs apply to a very negative 20-81-1 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that won last night going against Murray State. Illinois Chicago hasn't been very good as a big do (2-11 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points), so the team trends cancel each other out. However, that still leaves the strong general situation that favors the Flames in this game. I'll lean with the Flames at +23 points and I'd take Illinois-Chicago at +24 points or more.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-9) over Northern Illinois
Rotation #750 - 4 pm Pacific
Northern Illinois coach Ricardo Patton is just 31-61-3 ATS in his coaching career as a conference road underdog, including 5-14 ATS with the Huskies. Western Michigan coach Steve Hawkins, meanwhile, is 41-20-1 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 3 points (3-2 ATS this season). The Broncos are also 17-9 ATS after consecutive losses under Hawkins, including 12-4 ATS at home. Northern Illinois, a 29.8% 3-point shooting team, made a randomly good 12 of 20 (60%) 3-pointers in their 87-77 home win over Western Michigan but I doubt that the Huskies will be so lucky on the road. My ratings favor the Broncos by 11 points and I'll lean with Western Michigan minus the points.
MOREHEAD STATE (-8) over Eastern Kentucky
Rotation #820 - 4 pm Pacific
Morehead State head coach Donnie Tyndale has improved his team every year and another sign that he's a good head coach is his great record when he has ample time to prepare for an opponents. Morehead State is 26-8 ATS in conference games when Tyndale has 3 or more days off to prepare his team (5-2 ATS this season), including the 69-53 win at Eastern Kentucky 4 weeks ago. Morehead State also applies to 21-0 ATS subset of a 53-10-2 ATS situation, so I fully expect the Eagles to play well tonight. However, my ratings favor Morehead by just 6 1/2 points and the line opened at -7 and has gone up. I'll still lean with the Eagles at -8 based on the very strong technical analysis, and I'd take Morehead State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
Anyone have his 4 best bets for tonight