Craig Davis
75 Dime – MARQUETTE
15 Dime – WASHINGTON
MARQUETTE --- You might have thought I was going to jump on Georgetown tonight, as I've backed them in two HUGE home games (vs. Villanova and vs. Duke) and was easily victorious. The only thing that scared me away from them was the fact that Syracuse just suffered an inexcusable loss to Louisville and they own several important trends. Instead, my Big East marquee play of the day is on Marquette as a home favorite against a ranked Pittsburgh team that simply isn't as good as their ranking. Trust me, Vegas knows it... but they had to list the line in a position to draw some equal attention on both sides. Well done Vegas, but you aren't fooling me. I know how dangerous this Marquette team is and there's no way I'm passing up this opportunity.
The Eagles are a lot better than their record would indicate and they've played a very brutal Big East schedule thus far. It's honestly amazing that they've been able to hold on as long as they have, but when they get past Pittsburgh tonight, the rest of their season sets up very nicely. In fact, I believe the Eagles could finish in the top 5 in the Big East standings, and that's nearly a guarantee of a Big Dance tournament bid. Lazar Hayward is starting to really play like the leader Marquette thought he would be, not only scoring in double figures but also grabbing double digit rebounds in the process. Jimmy Butler and Maurice Acker are also starting to heat it up at the right time, and I have no doubts they'll be motivated to play after last year's beatdown Pitt put on them. Revenge is sweet, and Marquette will more than get theirs tonight.
As for Pitt, let's just say I don't believe they are as good as their ranking... shoot, if they were, would they be getting five or six points? The Panthers are coming down off an incredible high from Friday night's triple overtime thriller (98-95 win) at home, and there's nowhere they can go but down. In fact, this is a horrible sandwich game for the Panthers, as not only are they coming down off this incredible emotional high after beating WVU, but their next game (after tonight) is back at home against a very angry Villanova team. But who's going to be angrier... Villanova, who was just beaten at home by UConn or Pitt, who lost to 'Nova to end their run through last year's tournament. Pitt has had that Villanova game circled since last March and it could cause them to lose some focus for tonight.
The Eagles have covered six of the last nine in this series, and they've won five straight games in conference while Pittsburgh has won their last three at home, but failed to win or cover their last three on the road. Marquette's last home loss (and they have only two on the season) came on January 2nd against Villanova (74-72)... since then they have beaten Georgetown, Providence, Rutgers, DePaul and South Florida by an average of 18 PPG. Too much on the line tonight for Marquette... I see them rolling easily by double digits tonight.
WASHINGTON --- In most cases, I usually tend to side with the better defensive team, especially when getting points, but the more I look at this game, the more I think it has blowout written all over it. We have a few, really strong trends in our favor tonight and I'll be shocked if the Huskies don't win this game by double digits. The first thing that stood out to me is the fact Washington just destroys opponents at home, winning by an average margin of 18 PPG at home. For whatever reason, the Huskies feed off their home crowd and they really seem to turn up the pressure in the second half. If they have a small lead at halftime, they simply increase the defensive pressure in the second half while running a faster paced offense. If they have a big halftime advantage, they simply maintain it in the second half and don't allow their opponents back in the game.
The other factor they have in their favor is MAJOR revenge. When Washington traveled to Southern Cal back in late January, they were completely out-classed. It was very apparent they weren't ready to play that game, but it was also apparent that USC was playing out of their minds. The Trojans shot 58% from the field for the game (32-55) and 60% from three-point land and converted 74% of their free throws. Now, if you compare those numbers to their seasonal average numbers you can easily see the stars were aligned perfectly for the Trojans that night. On the year, USC shoots 43% from the field as a team, 32% from the three-point arc, and 64% from the line... so it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they played a near-flawless game in their first meeting. Don't expect the same tonight.
On the other side of the coin, Washington was well below its seasonal averages of 44% from the field and 32% from distance as they shot just 37% and 23%, respectively. USC held Quincy Pondexter to just 1-10 shooting and the Huskies leading scorer was held to a season-low 2 points. I will absolutely guarantee you that unless he gets injured tonight, Pondexter will score more than 2 points and better than 10% from the field. The final score that night was 87-61... one of Washington's worst defeats of the year. Revenge is sweet, my friends, and it's even more sweet when our side was humiliated in the last meeting.
Washington is 7-5 ATS at home this year while the Trojans have covered just twice in 10 games away from Southern California. The favorite in this series is 9-2 ATS while the Huskies have covered four of their last five ATS as a home favorite. USC, on the other hand, is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a SU win. It's all Huskies tonight.
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