Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
20 Dime – ODU-Northern Iowa UNDER
20 Dime – BOBCATS
20 Dime – HORNETS
ODU/NORTHERN IOWA UNDER --- Vegas is trying to play a trick on the general public, listing a total as small as I can remember in a long time. This total tells me two things. First, it tells me Vegas knows this is going to be a defensive battle, with every possession having more meaning than the last. Second, anytime Vegas posts a total this low, they are just begging you to take the OVER. The general public loves to bet favorites and overs, and that's what they are hoping we all do in this one. I'm sorry, but I'm not buying it. Maybe Northern Iowa covers, maybe they don't, but if they do it's going to be because they hold Old Dominion in the 40s. That's not my concern. My concern is that neither team gets up into the high 50s or we might have to sweat this. I still love the UNDER, but that's why it's only a 20-dimer as opposed to a 40- or 50-dimer... because it's likely to come down to the last few minutes. You can't expect a total to be this low and not have to sweat it out. Honestly, the only way I see this thing going over is if there are an inordinate amount of fouls OR we get overtime. In eight of their last 10 games, ODU has held their opponents to 55 points or less, and since Northern Iowa doesn't quite score like some of the teams the Monarchs have played recently, I don't think there's any question the Panthers stay below 55. Let's also remember ODU held Georgetown to just 57 points on the road a few months back. These guys play "D", and Northern Iowa is going to have to earn every point they score. Same goes for Northern Iowa... they pride themselves on their defense, holding six of their last eight opponents to 56 points or less. I don't usually like backing an UNDER when every trend in the book says this game is going under, but I'll take my chances. Expect both teams to score in the low 50s which should keep this game around 110.
BOBCATS --- Again, I'm going against the general public and what Vegas is begging us to do. Think about it... the Cavs just played the toughest game they've played in quite some time last night... an OT loss vs. Denver... and now they have to go on the road to play a very athletic, very angry Charlotte team who should be completely rested. The general public expects bettors to just jump all over the Cavs, assuming they are ticked off losing last night's game to the point they come in tonight and just absolutely demolish Charlotte. Sorry, but I don't believe that's happening. I'm much more comfortable backing a team playing at home (where they are 19-7) than a team coming in off the type of game the Cavs just played. If this line were upwards of 7 or 8, I might be scared off it a little as Vegas would then be begging you to take the Bobcats. Might be a little fishy. But listing this number around 4 1/2 is telling me they are begging us to play Cleveland, and I just can't bite. Charlotte has already beaten the Cavs twice this year, and it's starting to remind me of the way the Wizards played the Cavs last year. Remember, for whatever reason, even though the Cavs were dominating everyone, they just couldn't seem to be able to figure out the Wizards. I think this year's Bobcats are last year's Wizards. Yes, Cleveland did win the first matchup of these two teams back on October 31st, but even then the Bobcats covered the number. Since then Charlotte has won and covered both of the other meetings, winning by an average of 5 PPG and easily covering both numbers. I think it's safe to say the Bobcats were looking past the Nets in their last game (the first since the All Star break), and now we get to see if it was actually worth looking past them. If they get the SU win tonight, all will be forgiven. If they don't, Larry Brown will be criticized even more for not having his guys ready vs. New Jersey. This one comes down to the wire, and I like the Bobcats to actually win this thing SU.
HORNETS --- Has anyone noticed that the loss of Chris Paul isn't actually hurting this Hornets team as much as we first thought. Oh sure, at first it was tough to adjust, but a young man by the name of Darren Collison has really stepped up over the last four games and has made the New Orleans faithful forget (at least somewhat) about Paul. Collison has scored 24 or more points in each of his last four, dished out 9 assists in three of his last four, and has grabbed at least three boards in the last four. Collison has filled in nicely, and it hasn't been against crappy competition either. Boston, Utah, Orlando and Charlotte are the opponents in which Collison decided to "start playing". With Collison playing this well, it has only made those around him better. Peja Stojakovic is starting to score more and Emeka Okafor doesn't have to worry about scoring as much now, so he's able to stay inside, grab boards and block shots. As much as I like Indiana, I just don't think they have the horses to compete for 48 minutes, espeically on the road where they have won just 6 games all season. New Orleans should start strong, and I expect them to finish strong. I think they win this thing by at least 8 points tonight.
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