Craig Davis
40 Dime – MISSISSIPPI STATE
20 Dime – WASHINGTON STATE
MISSISSIPPI STATE --- Should the Bulldogs have some concern going to Baton Rouge playing an LSU team that hasn't won a conference game yet this year? Absolutely. I mean, they have absolutely nothing to lose, and that makes them somewhat dangerous. But on the same token, that could also be a detriment as these youngsters will likely abandon the game plan and give us a dose of "street ball". And if they do, that's going to play right into the Bulldogs hands this evening. Why? Because you are going to get tremendous defensive focus for 40 minutes today after letting a seven-point lead slip away vs. Kentucky earlier this week. HC Rick Stansbury said his squad has had some of its best practices since that loss and they realize it would be easy to have a "letdown" game after such an emotional affair vs. Kentucky.
But the NCAA Tourney committee is watching this squad closely as they are squarely on the bubble with four more conference games to go before they get to the Conference Tournament. Of those four games, only one of them should give them problems... at South Carolina. The Bulldogs absolutely have to come out of these last few games 3-1, at worst, but could really help themselves by going 4-0. It all starts today, and you're going to get one of the best efforts you've seen from this bunch in a long time because it's desperation time. A loss today and their NCAA hopes are slim-to-none. And some even better news... the Bulldogs get one of their top scorers back today in G Ravern Johnson, who was suspended for the Kentucky game for "attitude detrimental to the team". Johnson hits the long ball at a 43% clip and is the second-best long range shooter on the team. Expect Johnson come out on fire to prove to himself, his coach and his teammates that he's going to play for them instead of being selfish. Johnson scored a game-high 15 points in their last meeting with LSU and my guess is that he's out for even more this time around.
I realize Miss. State hasn't been the best road team all season, but they have covered 9 of their last 13 (with one push) on the road while the LSU Tigers' main concern is not to get blown out. Mississippi State also seems to feast on struggling teams, covering four of their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Tigers simply don't cover the number all that often... 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games and 0-8 ATS in their last eight following an ATS cover. Lovin' the 'Dogs this evening by at least 12, but don't be surprised if it's more like 15.
WASHINGTON STATE --- If we were to go strictly on trends, USC would be an easy selection even on the road. But as we all know, if you look long and hard enough, you can find trends in your favor. Like the fact the Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win or the fact the Cougars are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double digit home loss. Trends mean nothing to me today... what means something to me is the fact the Cougars are playing at home, they've already beaten the Trojans once this year on the road, and they are coming in off a blowout home loss in which they were completely embarrassed. Meanwhile, USC is completely on their "high horse" after going into Washington and doing something that only one other team has done... win in Seattle. I'm telling you right now they will come into this game a little overconfident and a little flat. They won't shoot 47% like they did against the Huskies and they won't shoot 86% from the free throw line either. It just so happened the stars aligned perfectly that night and they did the unthinkable. Not tonight. The Cougars play better defense that Washington and have already proven they can beat this team. Tonight all they need to do is win this game and we get the cover. This one might be tight in the first half, but I trust the crowd to stay in it and motivate their boys to a second half domination and a SU and ATS win.
_________________________
Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement.
FREAK
Previous Topic
Index