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#192285 - 12/25/09 01:56 PM Re: NFL Week 16 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 71387 Loc: Time to play the Game	San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3) Why Chargers cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Titans won't have leading tackler Keith Bulluck who is out for the season with a knee injury. They can clinch a playoff bye with a win. Why Titans cover: Since Vince Young has taken over as the Titans' starting quarterback, they are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS and averaging 29.5 points per game. Chris Johnson needs 336 rushing yards in the final two games to break Eric Dickerson's NFL record of 2,105 in a season. San Diego has the league's 21st-ranked run defense. Total (47): Under is 3-1-1 in the Chargers last five road games. Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9) Why Bills cover: They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Fred Jackson has challenged his offensive line to help him get to the 1,000-yards barrier this season. Michael Turner is unlikely to play this week after re-injuring his ankle. Why Falcons cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. With injuries to Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm will start at quarterback for Buffalo. The Bills will be without the NFL's interception leader, Jarius Byrd, and starting cornerback, Terrence McGee, who are out for the season. Total (41): Under is 4-1 in the Bills last five road games and 4-1 in the Falcons last five home games. Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5) Why Chiefs cover: Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Jamaal Charles has been dominating opposing defenses by ripping off big runs for touchdowns. Why Bengals cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Cedric Benson should have a big day against a defense that has been getting torched on the ground in recent weeks. They can clinch the AFC North title with a victory. Total (40): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series. Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3) Why Raiders cover: Browns are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. With Brady Quinn out for the season, Derek Anderson (2 TDs, 9 INTs) will start under center for Cleveland. Why Browns cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings in this matchup. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. With Mike Holmgren taking over in the front office, current head coach Eric Mangini is auditioning to remain the coach next season. Jerome Harrison is coming off a franchise record 286-yard rushing game and gets to face the Raiders who have trouble stopping anyone on the ground. Total (38): Over is 4-1 in the Raiders last five games. Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-14) Why Seahawks cover: Packers kicker Mason Crosby has missed a field goal in four straight games and is struggling with his confidence. Ben Roethlisberger lit up Green Bay for 503 yards passing and three touchdowns last week. Why Packers cover: They've won five of the last six meetings. They're 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. The Seahawks are 0-2-2 ATS in their last four meetings and 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Seattle has been terrible the last two weeks, and may have packed it in mentally. Total (41.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this series. Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-3) Why Texans cover: They have won all four all-time meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings of this series. Their second-ranked pass attack could pose problems for Miami's rookie-laden secondary. They need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Total (45): Under is 6-0 in Texans last six road games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall. Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-7) Why Panthers cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They're 3-0 ATS with Matt Moore at quarterback. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. After a slow start, Steve Smith has totaled 318 yards receiving and two touchdowns in three games since Moore has taken over at quarterback. Why Giants cover: They are averaging 30.8 points per game over their last five. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings of this series. Eli Manning has thrown for 900 yards in three games in December with eight touchdowns and only one pick. Carolina running back DeAngelo Williams is banged up and might not play. Total (42.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings of this series. Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9) Why Jaguars cover: Tom Brady has not been his usual self over the last four weeks, completing only 58 percent of his passes with four touchdowns against six interceptions. Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big day against a Patriots defense that is allowing 4.41 yards per carry to opposing runners. Why Patriots cover: They've won the last four meetings of this series. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. David Garrard has struggled on the road this season. Jacksonville's inability to sack opposing quarterbacks will give Brady time to throw. Total (42): Under is 4-1 in the Jags last five games and 4-0-1 in the Patriots last five outings. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-14) Why Buccaneers cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in New Orleans. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings of this matchup. New Orleans has struggled in recent weeks, and now that their quest for a perfect season is over they might be in for a letdown game. Why Saints cover: Buccaneers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. Saints head coach Sean Payton says he won't rest his starters. Tampa Bay has given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL and Drew Brees has thrown 33 so far this season. They can clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed for the playoffs with a victory. Total (49): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of this series. Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) Why Ravens cover: They've won five of the last eight meetings in this matchup. They're 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Pittsburgh's defense has been struggling in recent weeks and coach Mike Tomlin has lost confidence in it. Why Steelers cover: The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC. Baltimore historically has problems at Heinz Field and is only 2-8 there since it opened in 2001. The Steelers ran for 153 yards to cover as 9-point underdogs in a 20-17 loss to the Ravens in Week 12. Total (41.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven matchups of this series and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh. St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-13) Why Rams cover: The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings of this series. With a playoff spot already secured, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt may opt to rest some of his starters. Steven Jackson continues to put up big numbers on a weekly basis despite playing with a back injury. Why Cardinals cover: They've won six straight meetings in this matchup. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Arizona's once pass-heavy offense has become well rounded thanks in large part to the play of rookie running back Beanie Wells. The Rams only average 11.0 points per game. Total (43.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Arizona. Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-12) Why Lions cover: The 49ers are 2-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Alex Smith has struggled in his last two weeks, averaging 160 passing yards per game and throwing five interceptions. Why 49ers cover: They've won 11 of the past 12 meetings in this series. The Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in San Francisco and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Drew Stanton (22.1 rating) will start at quarterback for the Lions. Detroit has lost 19 straight road games. Total (41): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings of this series in San Francisco. New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) Why Jets cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Indianapolis might rest some of their starters during the game. The NFL's best defense could make it hard for the Colts to move the ball, especially if the reserves play. New York will be inspired to ruin Indy's quest for a perfect season. Why Colts cover: The home team is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings of this series. The favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. The Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games in Indianapolis. Mark Sanchez has been picked off 20 times this season. Total (40.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings of this matchup. Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) Why Broncos cover: It will be a big game for Brian Dawkins who makes his return to Philadelphia for the first time after playing there for 13 seasons. The Broncos will need to rebound from last week's loss to Oakland in order to stay in the thick of the playoff race. Why Eagles cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Philadelphia will get running back Brian Westbrook back from his concussion. They are averaging 31.4 points per game during their five-game winning streak. Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in Broncos last five road games and 8-2-1 in Eagles last 11 home games. Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+6.5) Why Cowboys cover: They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at Washington. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings of this series. DeMarcus Ware sacked Drew Brees twice last week and will face a Washington offensive line that has given up 38 sacks so far this season. Why Redskins cover: The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. The underdog is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings of this series. Jason Campbell said last week's loss was the worst experience of his career so he will be inspired to play well. Total (42.5): Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7) Why Vikings cover: They've won four of the past five meetings in the series. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Jay Cutler has only topped 200 yards passing once in his last five games (209) and has thrown eight interceptions during that stretch. The Vikings should get receiver Percy Harvin back from illness. Why Bears cover: The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Chicago. There is bad blood flowing between Brett Favre and coach Brad Childress that could spill over into this game. Adrian Peterson hasn't rushed for 100 yards in his last five games and is only averaging only 3.1 yards per carry during that time. _________________________ Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement. FREAK
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