Home Forums Sports Picks Central Trackside Picks 11/14

MRS. REVERE S. (G2), 9TH-CD, $175,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/16MT, 4:37 P.M. EST, 11-14

PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT
1 C. S. SILK ROMANS DALE TORRES F C 117
2 KIAWAH CAT MOTT WILLIAM I BRIDGMOHAN S X 117
3 MISS WORLD CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE MARAGH RAJIV 123
4 STRIKING DANCER MCPEEK KENNETH G ALBARADO R J 117
5 MARY'S FOLLIES DUTROW RICHARD E DESORMEAUX K J 117
6 WAR KILL MCPEEK KENNETH G COURT J K 117
7 HOT CHA CHA SIMS PHILIP A GRAHAM J 123
8 BLUEGRASS PRINCESS MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P VELAZQUEZ J R 117
9 ROMACACA MILLER DAN C II BAIRD E T 117
10 MISS KELLER (IRE) ATTFIELD ROGER DA SILVA EURICO 117
11 KEERTANA PROCTOR THOMAS F CASTANON J L 119
12 REDREAMIT MCPEEK KENNETH G BOREL C H 117
13 OBSEQUIOUS GRAY ELIZABETH MARTINEZ W 117
14 SINGLE SOLUTION BLOCK CHRIS PEREZ E E 117
15 AARONESS MATZ MICHAEL R BRIDGMOHAN S X 117
16 ALICE'S SMART ARNOLD GEORGE R II GONCALZES LEAND 117
17 BUM BUM (FR) MOTION H GRAHAM BOREL C H 117

Saturday's $175,000 Mrs. Revere S. (G2) came up very popular at the entry box, with an overflow of 17 three-year-old fillies entered in the 1 1/16-mile turf test at Churchill Downs, and KEERTANA (Johar) is our pick. Winner of the Regret S. (G3) in her last appearance under the Twin Spires, she owns a 3-2-1-0 record over the course and could offer a little value (8-1 morning line) following a trio of setbacks.

The Tom Proctor runner has caught either soft or yielding conditions while squaring off against graded rivals in her last three outings, but she's managed to place in all of those starts, recording a third in the second division of the Valley View (G3) at Keeneland most recently. The dark bay appears to be improving, registering century-topping BRIS Late Pace ratings for the first time in her last two outings, and Keertana has captured her last two starts on firm turf, including an 8 1/2-furlong allowance at Churchill during the spring/summer meet. We think she relish the return to her favorite course and will look for her to prevail from just off the pace under Jesus Castanon.

Garden City (G1) upsetter MISS WORLD (Bernstein) never got untracked in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), checking in a well-beaten fourth, but she's capable of much better here for Christophe Clement. The bay reeled off three consecutive victories prior to her last start, displaying an excellent turn of foot each time, and she may not have liked the yielding, undulating ground at Keeneland. The cutback to 1 1/16 miles should benefit her, and the stalker figures to sit a perfect trip beneath Rajiv Maragh before striking.

KIAWAH CAT (Lemon Drop Kid) is an appealing longshot for the exotics. Her BRIS numbers are a little light and we're not sure if she's good enough to win in this deep field, but the Bill Mott pupil is a strong finisher, registering triple-digit Late Pace numbers in her last two starts. She offered a good run for third in the first division of the Valley View last time, and there appears to be plenty of upside to the developing filly. The pace should set up for the bay, and we'll use her in our top three.

STRIKING DANCER (Smart Strike) exits a good-looking allowance tally at Keeneland, earning a 114 BRIS Late Pace rating for the 5 1/4-length decision, and rates as a serious win contender in her graded debut Saturday. Runner-up in the Caressing H. at Churchill last November, the Kenny McPeek trainee also broke her maiden over the course, drawing off by 5 3/4 lengths that afternoon. We like her present form and will use the chestnut in our gimmicks.

HOT CHA CHA (Cactus Ridge) is the likely favorite off her convincing victory in the QE II. The dark bay recorded a 119 BRIS Late Pace rating at Keeneland and clearly likes nine furlongs, winning her last two starts, including Arlington's Pucker Up S. (G3), at the distance, but this will be her first attempt just going 1 1/16 miles and she did drop her lone start at Churchill. We still have plenty of respect for the in-form Phil Sims runner and won't be surprised to see her beat us. BLUEGRASS PRINCESS (Dynaformer) is doing well presently, garnering the first division of the Valley View last time, and the stalker will keep John Velazquez in the saddle. We wonder how much the yielding turf benefited her last time, but the Kiaran McLaughlin charge must be considered for at least the bottom of the exotics.

MISS KELLER (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) is another one who is eligible to outperform our expectations. The Irish import has shown solid form in two U.S. starts for Roger Attfield, finishing second by a head in the second division of the Valley View last time, but we have to question whether she would like a little more ground. MARY'S FOLLIES (More Than Ready) hails from the Richard Dutrow stable and is one-for-one on grass, winning the Boiling Springs S. (G3) over the good turf at Monmouth, but the bay lass exits a sound beating on dirt in the Cotillion S. (G2) at Philadelphia Park. The early/presser picks up the services of Kent Desormeaux, but she's got class and pace concerns in this spot and is too much of a question mark on firm ground.

ROMACACA (Running Stag) drew an outside post (9) and figures to set sail for the lead with E.T. Baird. She turned in a respectable fifth versus males after setting the pace in the Hawthorne Derby (G3) last out and owns commendable BRIS numbers, but the front runner will probably have a difficult time sustaining her speed here. C. S. SILK (Medaglia d'Oro) exits an allowance score at Keeneland and is one-for-one on Churchill's turf, winning an allowance in June, but the Grade 3-winning lass does her best running on or near the front end and could be forced to show speed from her rail post here. There's too much speed to her outside for us to recommend her chances.

WAR KILL (War Chant) is eligible to outperform our expectations, but the Grade 2 winner has never been two turns or raced on turf. She also ran poorly when returning from a lengthy layoff last time. REDREAMIT (Tapit) could be a pace factor, but she probably needs a softer spot to be effective. OBSEQUIOUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) and SINGLE SOLUTION (Flatter) haven't shown enough for us to recommend their chances. Also-eligibles AARONESS (Distorted Humor), ALICE'S SMART (Smart Strike) and BUM BUM (Fr) (Giant's Causeway) will probably find the company too tough if they draw into the race.

1st-KEERTANA
2nd-MISS WORLD
3rd-KIAWAH CAT

SPOT PLAYS

Aqueduct (1st) Triple Glory, 7-2
(6th) Quay Lime Guy, 3-1

Beulah Park (7th) One Flying Trend, 6-1
(8th) Zambezi Boy, 7-2

Calder (4th) Checkitoff, 5-1
(6th) Carphonic, 4-1

Charles Town (2nd) Nicoles Prospect, 8-1
(6th) Endless Horizon, 9-2

Churchill Downs (1st) Consulate, 3-1
(7th) Leinster Lady, 6-1

Delta Downs (1st) Addicted Bay, 6-1
(3rd) Silverback, 7-2

Fair Grounds (2nd) Renata, 5-1
(7th) Spunky Monkey, 9-2

Finger Lakes (3rd) Distinctive Gal, 5-1
(4th) My Money, 7-2

Golden Gate Fields (1st) Street Lights, 3-1
(9th) Varsity Blues, 7-2

Hawthorne (2nd) King Negwer, 5-1
(3rd) Judy's Quest, 10-1

Hollywood Park (3rd) Duke of Aspen, 6-1
(5th) Gambling Pokerface, 9-2

Laurel (1st) Disco Wonder, 5-1
(4th) Whackthekat, 9-2

Meadowlands (4th) Cubs Molina, 5-1
(7th) Pasta Lover, 7-2

Mountaineer Park (2nd) Halo Gladis, 3-1
(3rd) Anna's Light, 8-1

Penn National (3rd) Stingaling, 6-1
(5th) Boffo, 5-1

Philadelphia Park (3rd) Billion Buck Baby, 7-2
(6th) Yes Yes Ohyes, 4-1

Remington Park (4th) Daddy's Vision, 3-1
(8th) Fifth Date, 3-1

Turf Paradise (1st) Power Monger, 4-1
(5th) Vinlear, 7-2

Woodbine (3rd) Sweet Therapy, 10-1
(10th) Executive Bonnie, 4-1

Courtesy of Mike Dempsey

It is Florida Million Day at Calder, so let’s take a stab at two of the stakes:

Race 10 $150,000 Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap: Soldier’s Dancer was the even money favorite in this race last year, but stumbled badly coming out of the gate, dumping jockey Manuel Cruz. The gelding is back this year, and again is going to be a short price off a sharp win at Philadelphia Park in his most recent outing.
I’ll try to beat him for the top spot with Pickapocket, who looks primed for a good effort here in his second start off a six-month layoff. Last out against allowance foes the gelding came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot.
The gelding has not tasted victory since April of ’08, but gets a major jock upgrade to Leparoux, and the barn has been on fire at the meeting, hitting with six of his first ten starters.
Race 11 $200,000 Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap: The “other” Bird is the likely favorite. He’s not Summer Bird or Mine That Bird, but It’s a Bird has accumulated over $1 million in earnings, thanks mainly to wins in the Lone Star Park Handicap (G3) and the Sunshine Millions Classic. The six year old was fourth in this race last year.
He comes into the race off a disappointing seventh place finish in the Meadowlands Cup (G2) and we’ll have to try to beat him at a short price.
I’ll look at Pound Foolish, who is coming off a sixth place finish in the Calder Derby (G3). The gelding pressed the early pace and weakened to finish sixth but was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths and is better on dirt.
There is not much early speed in here and he should get a good trip up front or sitting just off the pace. His 8/1 morning line looks fair enough to give him a look at pulling off the upset.


Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $10,000N2L (12:30 ET)

#8 Charing Cross 10/1
#2 Bold Vindication 3/1
#4 Galan Fete 2/1
#5 Triple Glory 7/2

Analysis: #8 Charing Cross set the early fractions while down along the inside and weakened to finish third last out going seven furlongs. The gelding caught a main track at Belmont Park where the rail was dead and most of the winners were coming from the outer paths. The gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers and there is not much early zip in here. The low % barn and seven-pound bug should assure we get a fair price on this gelding, who has run okay on wet tracks with three runner up finishes in five trips on off going. There is more rain in the forecast today, but judging from yesterday where there were originally two inches forecast and the track was fast for the opener, who really knows. The weathermen don't.
#2 Bold Vindication tracked the early pace and clipped heels and stumbled when caught in tight quarters, losing all chance of being in the hunt. The colt switches to the main track and cuts back to six furlongs on the quick turnaround. Blinkers are added to the mix along with a class drop. The barn is 39% winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood and this colt is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.

Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 3,4,5,8
TRI: 3,8 / 3,4,5,8 / 3,4,65,6,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $44,000N1X (4:45 ET)

#5 Fortissi More 4/1
#6 Dos Hombres 5/1
#2 Marscaponi 20/1
#8 Mr. Hooker 6/1


Analysis: #5 Fortissi More is back in with state breds here after missing by a nose last out against Alw-1 company at Philly over turf labeled as good. His last go against NY breds came at the Spa four back where he set the early fractions and weakened late to finish fourth while beaten just a half length for the top spot. He broke his maiden over the turf here last November. I'm assuming we are going to be on the turf and this gelding catches what looks like a very weak group of NY breds in this spot.
#6 Dos Hombres came up the inside and finished well to beat $25K non winners of threat Belmont Park off a two month break, his third win on turf. The gelding has won 2 of his last 3 and comes in here looking sharper than most of these.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 5,6 / 2,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct

R1: #8 Charing Cross 10/1
R3: #4 Mannington 8/1
R4: #7 Capridge 12/1
R4: #1 Holy Ego 8/1
R5: #2 Gold Shamrock 12/1
R6: #5 Deflationary Fears 8/1
R7: #2 Been a Pleasure 8/1
R8: #2 Marscaponi 20/1



Good luck today!

Courtesy of Brian Blessing

Aqueduct Saturday

9th (4:12)
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($15,000) | Purse: $20,000

Prg.na of de Buqe Peralta A DeMola Joseph 112 7 $15,000 L 30-1
8 7 Golden Caesar Espinoza J L Kelly Patrick J 119 $15,000 L 6-1
9 8 That's Rich Hill C Schwartz Scott M 118 $15,000 L 8-1
10 9 Calagaitor Fuentes R D Domino Carl J 119 $15,000 L 30-1
11 12 Knife and Fork Fox K Quick Patrick J 112 7 $15,000 L 30-1

A-Coupled: Munition and El Borracho

Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10) Wagers

Brian's Pick's 3-1-8

May Day Now was a solid runner-up last time out at six furlongs. Stretching out a furlong today should pose little problem for the three-year-old gelding. Munition goes first off the claim for an outstanding conditioner and Golden Caesar seems to be improving.

Courtesy of the Battaglia Brothers

Hollywood Saturday

8th (4:07)
On Trust H.

7 1/2 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $75,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Big Bad Leroybrown Baze T C Warren Donald 118 L 9-2
2 2 Mr. Wolverine Santiago Reyes C Gutierrez Jorge 111 L 20-1
3 3 My Summer Slew Espinoza V Dollase Craig 115 L 8-1
4 4 Nikki'sgoldensteed Talamo J Hess R B Jr 121 L 5-1
5 5 Bestdressed Rosario J Sadler John W 114 L 5-1
6 6 Star Nicholas Baze M C Eurton Peter 121 L 7-2
7 7 One Track Mind Pedroza M A Bernstein David 115 L 20-1
8 8 Enriched Gomez G K O'Neill Doug 116 L 5-1
9 9 Dance With Gable Bejarano R Machowsky Michael 121 L 4-1

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / $2 Double

Battagliaspicks 6-1-4

#6 Star Nicholas- loves this track winning three with two seconds and a third. He has the class edge on these and should get the money.

Churchill Downs Saturday

3rd (1:37)
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($80,000) | Purse: $52,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Last Gran Standing Ocampo I Williamson Brian 120 $80,000 LA 6-1
2 2 Forest Attack Maragh R Maker Michael J 120 LA 9-5
3 3 King A. J. Bridgmohan S X Robertson Hugh H 120 $80,000 LA 5-1
4 4 Doc's Friend Thompson T J Jones Cindy 118 LA 5-1
5 5 Guam Typhoon Lenclud F Wilkes Ian R 111 7 LA 7-5
6 6 Azicharmyou Prescott R Holt Larry W 118 L 20-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)

Battagliaspicks 5-2-1
#5 Guam Typhoon- Broke his maiden here on MAY 10th going this same distance. He came back with two more wins in allowance company and is now 3 for 3 here and 2 for 2 at 7f. He went up to SAR and finished 3rd and 2nd in two stakes races. He showed little in the grade III KY Sprint at TP but did not like the footing. He drops weight and will be very tough to beat.