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#185540 - 10/28/09 12:44 PM Re: NFL Week 8 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Freaks Forum Owner Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 69540 Loc: Time to play the Game	Broncos (6-0) @ Ravens (3-3)-- Unbeaten Denver didn't need bye after its 6-0 start, winning road games at Cincy/Oakland/San Diego. Broncos outscored its foes 67-3 in second half of last five games- they've been underdog in four of first six games. Baltimore allowed 142/167 rush yards in last two games, after allowing 59.5 ypg in first four games- they lost last three games after 3-0 start. Both teams had bye last week; Ravens are 6-1 in the game after last seven byes (4-0 vs spread as favorite), Broncos are 15-4 off bye (4-0 as dog). Ravens lost last three games by total of 11 points. Five of six Denver games stayed under the total. Ravens are 0-2 when they score less than 31 points. Browns (1-6) @ Bears (3-3)-- Only once in six games have Bears won by more than six points; they're 0-2 since bye, scoring total of 24 points, were down by 28 at half last week in Cincinnati, so no bargain laying 13 with them. Five of six Brown losses are by 14+ points; they're 2-2 as road dog, completing only 23 of 72 passes (31.9%) in last three games. Look for Bears to try and run ball; they've been held under 90 rushing yards in every game but one; Browns have given up average of 171.1 rushing yards/game this season. Three of last four Chicago games went over the total. NFC North home favorites are 0-3 in non-division games; AFC North road dogs are 4-2. Texans (4-3) @ Bills (3-4)-- Buffalo won last two games after 1-4 start-- their defense allowed just two TDs on foes' last 40 drives since 38-10 loss at Miami in Week 4. Bills led 7-2 at half last week despite being outgained 228-39 by the Panthers. Explosive Houston passing game is hurt by Johnson's bruised lung; they've thrown for 7.4+ ypa in each of last six games. Bills went 3/out on 26 of last 62 drives; they need to improve that, or Houston will win field position for seventh game in a row. Four of last five Buffalo games stayed under total. AFC East underdogs are 2-6 vs spread in non-division games, 0-3 at home; AFC South favorites are 4-3, 2-0 on the road. Vikings (6-1) @ Packers (4-2)-- Favre returns to Lambeau with Viking squad that beat Green Bay 30-23 four weeks ago (-3.5); Vikes averaged 8.4 ypp that night, converted 8-14 on 3rd down, and sacked Rodgers eight times. Green Bay hasn't allowed TD in two games since then, outrushing opponents 309-136; its foes were just 2-22 on 3rd down (25-57, 43.9% in first four games). Vikings started nine drives in enemy territory the first four games, but haven't started one there in last three games. This is bigger game for Packers than for Vikings, in more ways than one. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Four of last five Minnesota games went over the total. 49ers (3-3) @ Colts (6-0)-- After winning first two games by 2-4 points, Indy won last four games by 17+ points each, scoring 17 TDs on 40 drives, trying only six FGs, with seven 3/outs- their last two games were vs winless teams, so step up in competition here by Niner squad that gave up 10.3/7.7 ypp in last two games. SF is 2-0-1 as road dog this year; they allowed 16 points or less in all three wins, 27-45-24 in its losses. Change to Smith at QB sparked a comeback in Houston last week; 49ers trailed 21-0 at half, lost 24-21. Three of last four 49er games went over the total. NFC West road underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in non-division games. AFC South home favorites are 2-3. Dolphins (2-4) @ Jets (4-3)-- Hard to gauge Dolphins' state of mind after its 46-34 home loss to Saints, a game Fish led 24-3 in second quarter. Miami lost both its road games (19-7 Atlanta/23-13 San Diego)- they scored in last :10 to nip Jets 31-27 (+2) in first meeting at home three weeks ago; Fish scored 21 second half points, outrushed Jets by 151-138 margin. Jets allowed total of 33 points in four wins, 24-31-16 in their losses. Dolphins scored 38-31-34 points in last three games, all of which went over total, after scoring 14.3 ppg in first three games. Underdog is 5-0 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Jets are first team since 1975 to run ball for 300+ yards in consecutive games. Rams (0-7) @ Lions (1-5)-- Big game for both sides, a rare legitimate chance to win; Detroit is favored for first time since 2008 opener in Atlanta; they're 1-2 at home, beating Redskins 19-14, losing to Vikings (27-13), Steelers (28-20), but Stafford not likely to go here. Rams have five losses by 19+ points; both their close losses (9-7 Redskins/23-20 Jags) were on road. St Louis has been outscored 117-23 in second half of games- four of their last five went over the total, despite Rams having just one TD in their last eight trips to the red zone. NFC West road underdogs are 5-1 vs the spread in non-divisional games. NFC North home favorites are 0-3 against the spread. . Seahawks (2-4) @ Cowboys (4-2)-- Seattle lost four of last five games; they are 0-2 on road (23-10 at SF/34-17 at Indy) and gained just 128 yards in last game, an awful 27-3 home loss to Arizona that saw Seahawk OL get crushed. Dallas won three of last four games, with WR Austin leading NFL in passing yardage his last two games- they won last two home games by 14-16 points. Seattle is 2-8 SU, 1-9 vs spread in game following its last ten byes- three of its four losses this year are by 13+ points. Seahawks converted 12 of last 40 3rd down plays, Dallas 11 of last 25. NFC West road dogs are 5-1 vs spread in non-division games; NFC East home favorites are 5-4. Raiders (2-5) @ Chargers (3-3)-- Oakland (+7) lost opener 24-20 at San Diego, outrushing Bolts 148-77; difference was in red zone, where Raiders scored 13 points on three drives- Chargers had 21 on four. Since then, Raiders scored an average of 7.0 ppg in six games, scoring three TDs on 67 drives. Jets ran ball for 316 yards last week, bad news vs LT/Sproles combo. Raiders lost last five visits here by average score of 32-12 (1-4 vs spread). San Diego scored 23 or more points in every game this year; their three wins are by 4-10-30 points, with Bolts 2-3 vs spread as a favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in the last five Oakland games. Home side is 1-4 vs spread in AFC West division games this season. Jaguars (3-3) @ Titans (0-6)-- Winless Tennessee lost last game 59-0, trailed 45-0 at half and they're favored over Jax squad that beat Titans 37-17 back in Week 4, outrushing Titans 137-95. Tennessee lost last three games by total of 127-26 after losing first three 71-58. Will they give Young playing time to see if can be QB of their future? Jaguars scored 31-37-23 points in wins, 12-17-0 in losses; they're 22-40 (55%) on 3rd down in their wins, 14-44 (32%) in their losses, so key for Garrard to move chains. Four of last five Titan games went over the total. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 0-3 if favored. Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers in its last five games. Panthers (2-4) @ Cardinals (4-2)-- Arizona won last three games, scoring 26.3 ppg, since bye that followed 1-2 start- both their losses are at home, and they blew 21-0 halftime lead in only home win. Cardinals beat Carolina in playoffs last winter, ending four-game series skid, now gets reeling Panther squad that scored 10 or less points in three of its four losses. Carolina is putrid -14 so far in turnovers, throwing 14 INTs while picking off three enemy passes. Under is 4-0 in Arizona's last four games. NFC South underdogs are 2-9 vs spread out of their division, 2-5 on road. NFC West home favorites are 2-2.In their last couple games, Redbirds allowed two TDs on 25 opposition drives. Giants (5-2) @ Eagles (4-2)-- Health of Westbrook (concussion) key for Philly team that hasn't allowed McNabb to be sacked in last three games vs a Giants team that allowed 72 points in last two games after giving up average of 14.2 in first five contests. Visitor won seven of last ten series games, with Giants 4-0 in last four visits here, with all four games decided by five or less points, or in OT. Underdog covered last six series games. Philly scored 27+ points in all of its wins, 22-9 in losses- they averaged 4.2/4.8 ypp in last two games, not good Monday night's win was physical rivalry game, even though Eagles won fairly easily on scoreboard. Home team is 0-3 vs spread in NFC East division games. Monday, November 2 Falcons (4-2) @ Saints (6-0)-- Home team won seven of last nine series games, with Atlanta losing last four visits to Superdome by 13-20-6-4 points, in what is NFL's most underrated rivalry. Saints have yet to win by less than a dozen points, scoring 36 second half points to blow past Miami 46-34 in game they trailed 24-3 in 2nd quarter. NO scored 11 TDs on 29 drives in last two tilts, getting 11 TDs, one FG in last 12 red zone drives. Falcons are 1-2 away from home, with both losses by 16 points (NE/Dallas); they scored 12 TDs on last 34 drives, with only one FG attempt- Dallas sacked Ryan four times, after he hadn't been sacked in his last four games. Four of six Saint games went over. _________________________ Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement. FREAK
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