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#183940 - 10/15/09 01:13 PM Re: NFL Week 6 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 71377 Loc: Time to play the Game	Philadelphia at Oakland The Eagles look to build on their 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14). Here are all of this week's picks. SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18 Game 209-210: Kansas City at Washington Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 124.309; Washington 128.684 Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 39 Vegas Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 36 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Over Game 211-212: Houston at Cincinnati Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.867; Cincinnati 132.694 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 42 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+5 1/2); Under Game 213-214: Cleveland at Pittsburgh Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.969; Pittsburgh 138.320 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 38 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-14); Over Game 215-216: Baltimore at Minnesota Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.761; Minnesota 139.781 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 5; 45 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over Game 217-218: St. Louis at Jacksonville Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.535; Jacksonville 132.741 Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 15; 40 Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 9 1/2; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-9 1/2); Under Game 219-220: NY Giants at New Orleans Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 141.721; New Orleans 146.556 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 42 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Under Game 221-222: Carolina at Tampa Bay Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.448; Tampa Bay 125.390 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 44 Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 40 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over Game 223-224: Detroit at Green Bay Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 122.841; Green Bay 132.623 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 51 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13 1/2); Over Game 225-226: Philadelphia at Oakland Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 138.357; Oakland 119.157 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 19; 46 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 14; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-14); Over Game 227-228: Arizona at Seattle Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 134.143; Seattle 128.932 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 43 Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 47 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Under Game 229-230: Buffalo at NY Jets Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 123.153; NY Jets 139.544 Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 16 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9 1/2; 38 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9 1/2); Over Game 231-232: Tennessee at New England Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.805; New England 141.963 Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 37 Vegas Line: New England by 9; 43 Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Under Game 233-234: Chicago at Atlanta Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.018; Atlanta 139.717 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Over MONDAY, OCTOBER 19 Game 235-236: Denver at San Diego Dunkel Ratings: Denver 132.411; San Diego 137.453 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 48 Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over _________________________ Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement. FREAK
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#183941 - 10/15/09 01:14 PM Re: NFL Week 6 [Re: FREAK]
FREAK 2007 Bad Man Champion Registered: 12/01/00 Posts: 71377 Loc: Time to play the Game	Sunday, October 18 Chiefs (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)-- Washington has yet to play team with win; they've also yet to score more than 17 points in a game, blowing 17-2 lead at Carolina last week. Skins are 0-2 as home favorite this year, scoring 25 points in narrow wins over Rams (9-7), Bucs (16-13). 0-5 Chiefs are playing fourth straight NFC East foe; last week was their first cover of year, taking Cowboys to OT before losing 26-20. NFC East favorites are 8-5 vs spread in its non-divisional games, 4-2 at home. AFC West road underdogs are 1-5. Last four Redskins games stayed under total-- last three Kansas City games went over. Texans (2-3) @ Bengals (4-1)-- Cincinnati won last four games, sweeping its AFC North rivals last three weeks, with all three wins by FG each. Concern over Palmer's hand-- he was handing off lefty most of 4th quarter vs Ravens, but Bengals are on roll, with Benson leading NFL in rushing- they've run ball for average of 136.8 ypg in last four games. Houston crushed Cincy 35-6 LY in game that Texans had +3 turnover ratio. Texans rallied from 21-0 deficit at the half to tie Arizona last week but threw pick-6 for TD in last 3:00, then didn't score with ball on 1-yard line in last 1:00. Over is 3-1 Bengals' last four games. Browns (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pitt won last ten series games, covering four of last five played here (average win in last five at Heinz, 31-16). Home faves in division games are 7-9 this season, 1-6 in AFC. After losing first three tilts by 14-21-31 points, Browns split a pair of 3-point decisions last two weeks, though they were 2-17/22 passing in 6-3 win in Buffalo, ugly numbers. Pitt has been outscored 68-44 in second half of games this year, forcing only two turnovers in four games Polamalu missed (he is practicing this week). Steelers are 1-4 vs spread this season, winning home games 13-10 (Tenn), 38-28 (SD). Ravens (3-2) @ Vikings (5-0)-- Unbeaten, well-balanced Minnesota has yet to score less than 27 points, winning home games 27-24/30-23, but they're run for less than 100 yards in last three games, as teams forcing Favre to beat them and he has, passing for 283-271-288 yards last three games. Ravens lost last two games, they ran ball for 99 ypg in losses, 156.7 in wins. Minnesota is allowing 96 ypg on ground, with 129 (@ Detroit) most they've allowed. AFC North teams are 5-7 vs the spread in non-league games, 3-2 as road underdogs. NFC North teams are 7-3, but 0-2 as home favorites. Ravens scored defensive TD in each of last two games. Rams (0-5) @ Jaguars (2-3)-- Hapless Rams were -3 in turnovers in each of last three games; they lead NFL in penalties, fumbles lost and are on 15-game losing streak- they've been outscored 80-10 in second half of games, but they did gain 400 yards with 27 first downs vs Minnesota last week, fumbling ball away twice on Viking 2-yard line. Boller has concussion, Bulger has shoulder issues, so St Louis has issues at QB, and other places. Jaguars are very erratic; underdog is 4-1 vs spread in their games (0-1 as favorite). Three of last four St Louis games went over. Longtime Ram WR Holt is in first year with Jags. Giants (5-0) @ Saints (4-0)-- Subplots include Manning going home to play (this is his first game in Superdome), Shockey facing former team, but this is also battle of unbeatens, potential NFC title game preview. Saints are off bye, none of their four wins are by less than 14 points; only one of their four foes has gained more than 244 yards, so Brees-led offense has protected leads and been more balanced (164.3 rushing ypg this year) than previous Saint outfits. Giants played stiffs last three weeks, running ball for 226-156-220 yards, in games they led by combined score of 62-10 at halftimes. Home favorites are 19-13 vs spread in non-divisional games. Panthers (1-3) @ Buccaneers (0-5)-- Both teams are struggling, with Carolina having trailed 17-2 in its only win, while Bucs are winless, with only one loss by less than 13 points. Panthers won four of last five visits here, losing 27-3 LY; they're 7-3 in last ten series games, with six of seven wins by 8+ points. Bucs' young QB Johnson has shown mobility, but averaged just 4.0/4.1 ypp in his two starts. Tampa Bay was outscored 51-16 in scond half of its last four games. Bucs haven't had their bye yet, Carolina had theirs two weeks ago, edge Panthers. Home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games this season. Lions (1-4) @ Packers (2-2)-- Health of Green Bay offensive line an issue after Rodgers was sacked 20 times in four games; bye week may have helped. Lions lost nine of last ten in series, losing last five visits here by 3-3-8-21-10 points. Road team is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 series games. Culpepper was 23-37/225 passing in 28-20 home loss to Steelers, Lions' first loss by less than 14 points; it isn't known whether he or Stafford goes here. Packers allowed 15-17 points in their wins, 31-30 in losses- they're 2-1 as a favorite in '09, with its last three games going over total. Detroit allowed 93 points in two road games this year. Eagles (3-1) @ Raiders (0-5)-- Hard to know lot about Philly teams whose Ws are over Panthers-Chiefs-Bucs, but we know Oakland is non-competitive, with losses in last three games by 20-23-37 points, as behind the scenes soap opera involving head coach and his assault charge hangs over team's head. Philly wins are by 28-20-19 points; this is their first road game since Week 1. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in their games. Raiders dropped back to pass 19 times last week, were sacked six times, with only 64 net yards. All four Eagle games went over the total, but three of last four Oakland games stayed under. NFC East faves are 7-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-3 as road favorites. Cardinals (2-2) @ Seahawks (2-3)-- Has team ever been 2-3 with two shutouts before? Home team won eight of last ten series games, with Arizona 1-4 in last five visits here, losing by 3-25-11-21 points. Seattle was outscored 69-36 in five halves Hasselbeck missed- they outscored opponents 79-13 in the five he played. Redbirds been pass-happy last two games, throwing it 97 times, with 28 rushes for 68 yards; they're just 12-46 on 3rd down this year, very poor. Seattle averaged 7.8/7.6 ypp in its three wins, 5.2 or less in its losses. Arizona allowed 10.8/7.4 ypp in its last two games. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total. Bills (1-4) @ Jets (3-2)-- Underdog is 9-1 in last ten series games; only once in last those ten games has home side won by more than five points; road team is 4-2 in last six SU. Buffalo is 2-3 in last five visits here, with losses by 2-4-4 points. Jets lost last two games, both on road, including emotional 31-27 loss in Miami late Monday night- they allowed 153-151 rushing yards in last two games, with only one takeaway. Bills scored just 20 points in last three games (three TDs/15 3-outs/35 drives) as rumors are popping up that Jauron's job is in jeopardy. Jets won both their home games by seven points (16-9/24-17). Titans (0-5) @ Patriots (3-2)-- Winless Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of last four games, losing last two by 20-22 points; they've lost field position by average of 15 yards/game. 14 of 61 opponent drives have started in Titans' territory. Patriots are 3-0 at home, winning by 1-16-6 pts; they're 2-1 as home favorite. Pats were outscored 13-0 in the second half in both losses, both road games they led at half. Titan opponents are completing 71.5% of passes this season, are 14-27 on 3rd down last two games. AFC East home faves are 4-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South road underdogs are just 2-3. Bears (3-1) @ Falcons (3-1)-- Too early to tell about either team; Chicago won last three games before its bye, but two of their wins were vs Seattle's #2 QB and the Lions; so far this year, Bears outscored opponents 68-24 in 2nd half of games-- in last couple games, they started nine of 22 drives in enemy territory. Atlanta won its two home games 19-7/28-20, covering both as home favorite, but in last two games before its bye, Falcons allowed 440-445 yards, so their defense has issues-- it looked better in last week's 45-10 win at Candlestick. NFC North teams are 7-3 vs spread out of division; AFC South faves are 5-1. Monday, October 19 Broncos (5-0) @ Chargers (2-2)-- Huge game for San Diego, which falls three games behind surprising Denver in AFC West if they lose here. Broncos lost last three visits here, 48-20/23-3/52-21, but are on serious roll in '09, winning all five games, three in game's last minute- they were underdog in three of five wins. Banged-up Chargers have yet to be ahead at the half; they gave up 31-38 points in their losses, 20-13 in wins- they're rumored to be shopping Shawne Merriman before next week's trade deadline. Bolts are 1-2 as favorite in '09. All five Denver games stayed under total. Both San Diego wins stayed under total; their two losses both went over. _________________________ Do not post any write ups from any newsletters. Also do not cut and paste any news stories or blog items from other websites. All of the preceding are copyright protected and unless you have written permission from the author it is considered copyright infringement. FREAK
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