NCAAF Best Bets 2-0 last week.na by 14
Midshipmen can pound away against a Duke defensive front that lacks
depth and does not see this kind of attack in the A.na as the season goes on (or an
indictment of the Mustang defense). FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-22.
Tennessee* over Arkansas State by 24
Off of a major revenge win over S.M.U., and with the make-up game with
Memphis penciled in for Thursday night, could this be a time for Steve Roberts
and his Indians to take the paycheck and mail one in? The Volunteers might be
frustrated enough to force that issue. TENNESSEE 41-17.
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NFL
****BEST BET
*Houston over Indianapolis by 14
These aren’t your older brother’s Houston Texans. Under Gary Kubiak, a
head coach with an offensive brain, the Texans are riding a franchise-best
four-game winning streak.Are the Texans for real? Put it to you this way, for
the first time that question can actually be seriously asked.They have a real
head coach and real playmakers. This will be the Texans’ biggest game in
their six-year history.The crowd at Reliant Stadium finally will be rocking.
The Colts are traveling for the second straight week. It’s also a grass field
for the Colts, who are at their best on carpet in a dome setting. If you recall,
the Texans ambushed the Colts at home last season winning, 27-24.
Lumbering Ron Dayne gashed the Colts for 153 yards on the ground, while
scoring two touchdowns. It was the first time the Texans defeated
Indianapolis in 10 meetings, but pointspread-wise the teams are tied 5-5.
That victory’s important because the Texans know they can now beat Indy.
The Texans’ offense is much crisper and their confidence level much higher
with Matt Schaub replacing David Carr at quarterback.Ahman Green has
shown that he still has something left in the tank and Andre Johnson has
become a premier wide receiver, ranking with the best.The Colts are thin
at linebacker if Freddy Keiahe and Rob Morris remain out. Both missed last
Sunday’s game. The key for the Texans is an improved defense that held
Kansas City and Larry Johnson to 72 yards rushing opening week and then
last Sunday held Carolina to just 66 yards on the ground. Peyton Manning
can’t do it alone. HOUSTON 34-20.
***BEST BET
Jacksonville over *Denver by 14
Denver quarterback Jay Cutler has a big arm and an abundance of talent.
But Cutler is far from a polished NFL quarterback in just his eighth NFL
start. He’s prone to mistakes and making bad decisions. Jacksonville forced
the highest percentage of bad decisions last season. The Jaguars play the
run well, they have active linebackers and their secondary uses a lot of
zone coverage. A quarterback needs patience to successfully attack it.
Cutler tends to trust his big arm too much, which gets him in trouble.The
Jaguars have been home the first two weeks of the season.They are idle
next week. So this matchup should get their full attention. Denver is learning
a new scheme on defense, while breaking in new linemen.The Broncos
have played two winless teams, Buffalo and Oakland. Denver could very
well be 0-2 instead of 2-0.The Broncos just got past the Bills by one point
by kicking a field on the final play with one second left.They then edged
Oakland by three in overtime after slipping in a time-out right before
Sebastian Jankowski kicked a field goal that would have won the game for
the Raiders.The Jaguars have the defense to stop Travis Henry and frustrate
Cutler, while their two-headed running attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice
Jones-Drew can move the chains. Even David Garrard can effectively run
the ball. The Jaguars’ method under Jack Del Rio seems to be play to the
level of competition.They lose to bad teams, but play the good ones tough.
The Jaguars beat Dallas, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Indianapolis last season.
JACKSONVILLE 27-13.
**PREFERRED
*Pittsburgh over San Francisco by 19
The 49ers are 2-0 for the first time since 1998, but while their defense
appears improved the offense really misses offensive coaching guru Norv
Turner. San Francisco is stepping up in class after getting past NFC West
Division rivals Arizona and St. Louis despite averaging just 190 yards on
offense and having 16 fewer first downs than their two foes. San
Francisco’s play-calling has been uneven, and that’s putting it kindly. Alex
Smith hasn’t been sharp.The team has yet to effectively utilize promising
second-year tight end Vernon Davis. The Steelers haven’t had these problems.
Their offense is more wide open under new offensive coordinator
Bruce Arians. Ben Roethlisberger and Willie Parker are thriving in it. The
Steelers’ defense hasn’t changed, though. It remains extremely physical
holding their first two opponents, Cleveland and Buffalo, to an average of
five points, 11.5 first downs and 222 yards.The 49ers are 2-7 ATS when losing
straight-up. San Francisco is caught in a division sandwich, too, having
defeated the Rams and hosting Seattle next week.The 49ers are traveling
east and won’t be helped by the early start time. PITTSBURGH 28-9.
**PREFERRED
*Chicago over Dallas by 14
These are the two best teams in the NFC. The Bears have contained
LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson so far. Dallas doesn’t have a running
back nearly as good as those two.Tony Romo is having a big year, but
he’s not nearly as effective when under pressure like he will be here.This
is the Sunday night game, which could mean colder temperatures and
wind.Those are factors that work in Chicago’s favor.The Cowboys defense
is vulnerable having lost run-stuffing nose guard Jason Ferguson. In addition
to no Ferguson, out for the season, the Cowboys haven’t had linebacker
Greg Ellis or their top cover cornerback,Terence Newman. Cedric
Benson isn’t a premier running back. However, he can be effective against
weak defenses. The Cowboys surrendered 438 yards and 35 points to a
crippled Giants offense in Week 1 and then allowed a bad Miami offense to
score 20 points and gain 334 yards. Chicago has a nice edge in special
teams with return man Devin Hester and reliable place-kicker Robbie
Gould.The Cowboys have an untested field goal kicker in Nick Folk, a West
Coast kicker who isn’t used to tricky winds. CHICAGO 27-13.
San Diego over *Green Bay by 3
Don’t look now but the Packers are on a six-game winning streak and playing
tough defense.This also is a tough spot for San Diego, off a Sunday night
marquee revenge game against the Patriots and making their secondlongest
road trip with an early start time.The Chargers were 1-3 ATS last
year during their four longest road trips. San Diego has three straight division
games after this, but can’t afford to look past the feisty Packers, whose
running game got a boost from unheralded rookie DeShawn Wynn. SAN
DIEGO 20-17.
*Kansas City over Minnesota by 2
Defend Adrian Peterson and don’t let the Vikings score any touchdowns.
That’s the secret to beating the Vikings. It’s harder than it sounds. Peterson
is emerging as a strong rookie-of-the-year candidate and Minnesota’s
defense already has crossed the end zone three times.The Chiefs have their
own offensive woes.They have a terrible downfield passing attack, made
worse by Eddie Kennison (check status) missing last week with a hamstring
injury. Larry Johnson has rushed for 98 yards on 26 carries. Kansas
City is 19-6 ATS in its home openers. KANSAS CITY 12-10.
*Philadelphia over Detroit by 9
Detroit is 2-0, but it’s an ugly 2-0 after winning in overtime at home against
the Vikings and getting past the Raiders on the road after blowing a big
lead.This could catch up to the Lions here, especially after their draining
performance versus the Vikings when the teams combined for nine
turnovers. Jon Kitna (check status) may not be 100 percent after getting
shaken up last week.The Eagles could be missing underrated cornerback
Lito Sheppard (check status). Expect a lot of blitzing by the Eagles trying
to take advantage of Detroit’s mediocre offensive line. Detroit has lost 42
of its past 49 away games. Philadelphia is on a short practice week.
PHILADELPHIA 26-17.
*New England over Buffalo by 15
Buffalo gave New England all it could handle last year at Foxboro, leading
17-7 at halftime before falling 19-17.This time things could be much more
difficult. Not only have the Patriots upgraded their receiving corps, but the
Bills are down four defensive starters because of injuries. Buffalo’s offense
has failed to step up.The Bills are averaging only 203 yards of offense and
8.5 points. Special teams can only take you so far.The Patriots are 7-0 SU, 5-
2 ATS in their last seven against the Bills. NEW ENGLAND 29-14.
*New York Jets over Miami by 7
Things aren’t shaping up any better for Miami under Cam Cameron than
they were under the disappointing Nick Saban. The Jets swept the series
last year.They’ve now covered the past seven meetings in the series.The
Jets also were 5-1 ATS last year when laying points. If Chad Pennington’s
bad ankle keeps him out a second straight week,Kellen Clements would be
making his second NFL start. He should have an easier go at home against
an aging Miami defense that ran out of gas last week. NY JETS 23-16.
*Baltimore over Arizona by 5
The Cardinals’ road mark of 6-33 SU, 13-26 ATS is certainly not a cause for
optimism. Neither is this being a flat spot for the Cardinals, off two straight
division games and with a look-ahead game the following week against
head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s former team, the Steelers. Still,we’d hesitate
to lay too many points if Kyle Boller has to start at quarterback again if
Steve McNair (groin) can’t go. The Ravens already are without their best
offensive lineman, Jonathan Ogden, who is out for the season. Baltimore
also lost standout defensive lineman Trevor Pryce (broken wrist) last week.
BALTIMORE 19-14.
*Tampa Bay Buccaneers over St. Louis by 7
The Rams have the skill position talent with Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson
and Torry Holt.What they don’t have is an offensive line they can trust with
Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace out for the season and Richie Incognito
(check status), their best guard, missing last week with an ankle injury.The
Rams surrendered six sacks to the 49ers last week with their makeshift
offensive line.That was at home.Now St. Louis is playing its first road game
and it will be on grass.The Bucs were 0-2-1 ATS as home favorites last season.
TAMPA BAY 24-17.
*Seattle over Cincinnati by 6
Unless they’re forcing turnovers, which they are pretty good at, the Bengals
can’t stop anybody.When the Browns and Derek Anderson light you up for
51 points and 553 yards, you’ve got problems. Now the Bengals have to
travel to the West Coast following two divisional contests and a marquee
home matchup the following week against the Patriots on Monday night.
The Seahawks, however, haven’t faced a quarterback the magnitude of
Carson Palmer yet. SEATTLE 35-29.
*Oakland over Cleveland by 1
The Browns may have the Raiders’ number beating them the past two years
both in Oakland.The Browns came from 18 points down to accomplish the
feat last season. Oakland has put forth two valiant efforts this season, but
still are saddled with an 11-game losing skid. The Browns, on the other
hand, got a nice morale boost upsetting the Bengals. Derek Anderson isn’t
the long-term answer at quarterback for Cleveland, but he’s an upgrade on
Charlie Frye. This could be the week the Raiders want to try Daunte
Culpepper at quarterback since the Browns have yielded 10 touchdown
passes, 50 first downs and 896 yards.OAKLAND 25-24.
Carolina over *Atlanta by 7
After facing two tough run defenses, Minnesota and Jacksonville on the
road, the Falcons finally get to come home. But does anyone want to see
them? The Falcons have scored 10 points, Joey Harrington’s been sacked 13
times and Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood have combined to average
just 3.4 yards per carry on 49 attempts. Carolina’s defense has come into
question, especially its secondary, after getting torched by Houston. But the
Panthers still have unstoppable Steve Smith and superior special teams.
CAROLINA 23-16.
*Washington over New York Giants by 6
It doesn’t matter that Eli Manning is able to start when the Giants continue
to play undisciplined, error-prone football. Giants coach Tom Coughlin
is under the gun and not popular with his players. So this isn’t a rallyaround-
the-coach motivation type of game for the Giants. It’s the Redskins,
with double-revenge, who have the prime motivation. The Redskins can
pound with their productive ground game, while also taking advantage of
the Giants’ porous secondary that has been lit up for 631 yards and seven
touchdowns.WASHINGTON 23-17.
*New Orleans over Tennessee by 2 (Monday)
The Titans upset Jacksonville on the road and nearly upset the Colts, while
the winless Saints have been outscored, 72-24.The due factor may kick in
for the Saints, playing in their home opener, but keep in mind they were
just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite last season. Reggie Bush is off to a slow
beginning, rushing for just 65 yards on 22 carries and averaging just 25
yards receiving.The Titans don’t get a lot of respect.All they’ve done is win
seven of their past nine and cover 12 of their past 14 games. NEW
ORLEANS 26-24.
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NFL OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Cleveland at Oakland – Jamal Lewis and LaMont Jordan are
having big comeback seasons, while the Browns are giving up an average
of nearly 450 yards per game.
UNDER: Minnesota at Kansas City – Neither team has any kind of
passing attack, while the Chiefs’ defense gets a boost with the return of suspended
defensive end Jared Allen.
OVER: Cincinnati at Seattle – The Bengals are 2-0 ‘over’ with a highpowered
offense and a defense that can’t defend.
